The Phenomena of Eco-Political Risk Based on Yellow Vests Movement in France

 
PIIS013122270009007-8-1
DOI10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-3-36-46
Publication type Article
Status Published
Authors
Occupation: Senior Researcher, Faculty of Public Administration
Affiliation: Lomonosov Moscow State University
Address: 27/4, Lomonosovskii Prosp., GSP-1, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation
Journal nameMirovaia ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia
EditionVolume 64 Issue 3
Pages36-46
Abstract

Ecological crisis represents the major challenge for democracies in the era of globalization. Researchers and experts agree that the climate change, regardless its “slow-burning” nature, constitutes the risk of dramatic economic and social transformations causing mass impoverishment, conflicts, wars and dislocation of people. Under such conditions, the democratic governments will be forced to conduct unprecedented reforms in order to resist the threat. Postponing the energy transition will only cause more drastic and extensive measures in the future. Despite general awareness of the problem, ecology remains the claimed priority which is poorly reflected in real actions of the authorities. The present article explains this obvious lack of governments’ action by the social resistance to the energy transition. This resistance remains implicit but reveals itself when the energy transition amplifies a short-term financial vulnerability of individuals. The Yellow Vests movement represents an illustration of this conflict of values. Mostly interpreted as a manifestation of a profound social crisis of liberal democracies, it originates in the ecological dilemma: people’s support of the energy transition contradicts their willingness to participate in it financially. This dilemma results in significant growth of a new type of eco-political risk having ecological origins, but taking a classical form of civil unrest and, generally, leading to political instability. In accordance with this theory, Yellow Vests movement started as a protest in response to higher ecological component of the fuel tax (especially the diesel), which was thought as a stimulus for the energy transition but became an accelerator of social tension. French polls show that people acknowledge the ecological crisis and the treat it represents. Furthermore, they await and approve the energy transition as a main condition for solving the climate change problem. Nevertheless, the same polls disclose people’s unwillingness to take their financial part of responsibility in this transition and unpreparedness for any decrease of their purchasing power. This dilemma becomes a source of political instability and social unrest especially in democratic countries, where the welfare state model is particularly well-rooted and comprises a fundamental value for people. Nonetheless, in a short-term perspective, the energy transition has a tangible cost which public finances have no possibility to bear without raising the financial pressure on business and individuals. The public debt burden, continually increasing explicit social expenditures, off-balance-sheet liabilities including implicit pensions, and, on the other hand, extremely low economic growth do not allow any additional public spending. Thus, should the energy transition be undertaken (and there are no doubts it is the only possibility for democracies to survive), it will be financed by the business and individuals. With this perspective, researchers tend to develop a new framework for political risk analysis, where the ecological factors are significantly reinforced. While there are some studies on the expropriation risk caused by ecological transition, the civil unrest remains poorly investigated. The present article aims at investigating this new eco-political peril. The author believes, the individuals’ rejection of environmental solidarity constitutes a major factor of political instability in the liberal democracies, and it will amplify in proportion to the intensity of governments’ actions for the energy transition. The longer the democratic governments postpone the necessary climate decisions, the harder these measures will be for the people, and the stronger the consequences of the inevitable political risk.

Keywordspolitical risk, global ecological crisis, climate change, yellow vests movement, civil unrest, energy transition, Welfare state
Received29.03.2020
Publication date29.03.2020
Number of characters38679
Cite  
100 rub.
When subscribing to an article or issue, the user can download PDF, evaluate the publication or contact the author. Need to register.
Размещенный ниже текст является ознакомительной версией и может не соответствовать печатной
1 Движение “желтых жилетов” во Франции стало одной из главных тем политической дискуссии на рубеже 2018 г. и 2019 г. Объединявшее на пике своего развития менее 300 тыс. активистов, но нашедшее поддержку у миллионов пассивных сограждан, оно оказалось на перекрестке таких актуальных сегодня вопросов политического анализа, как эволюция механизмов работы гражданского общества, становление новых демократических институтов и форм представительства, кризис западной модели демократии и государства всеобщего благосостояния. Вместе с тем движение должно вызывать интерес и у исследователей политических рисков, так как оно довольно точно иллюстрирует отмеченную в современной литературе тенденцию распространения последних на территории индустриально развитых стран [1; 2; 3, pp. 260-265]. Настоящая статья продолжает серию работ по данной тематике, однако главное внимание здесь уделено не столько самой манифестации классического политического риска гражданских волнений, сколько ее глубинным источникам, связанным с крайне актуальной проблемой глобального экологического кризиса.
2 В основе работы лежит гипотеза, что в ряде стран политический риск будет иметь преимущественно экологическое происхождение. Актуальность подобного аналитического среза объясняется усилением внимания со стороны общественности и государства к проблеме экологической чрезвычайности, а также мерами, которые будут приняты либеральными правительствами в ближайшие годы и, несомненно, окажут влияние на существующие в этих странах социально-экономические стандарты. Ввиду исторических и социально-психологических особенностей развитие риска гражданский волнений, связанных с экологической тематикой, наиболее вероятно в индустриально развитых западных странах, которым со времени окончания Второй мировой войны удалось избежать крупных потрясений и где укоренилась модель всеобщего благосостояния, переживающая сегодня свой самый серьезный кризис экономической сбалансированности [4; 5].
3 Влияние экологического фактора на политическую стабильность все чаще становится объектом научного интереса. Практически весь спектр классических манифестаций политических рисков – экспроприации, войны, восстания и забастовки, государственное вмешательство – могут быть продиктованы экологическими обстоятельствами. Важно также отметить, что не просто проблема климата и глобального потепления становится дополнительным фактором политического риска, напротив, она получает роль главной венчурной силы ряда политических катаклизмов. Таким образом, вместе с политическими рисками гражданских восстаний или экспроприаций, формирующихся под воздействием классических социально-экономических факторов, сегодня получают развитие и их новые формы, где главную функцию выполняет экологическая составляющая. В связи с этим представляется целесообразным использование в их отношении нового термина – “экополитического” риска, – который позволит уточнить его особую природу.

Number of purchasers: 0, views: 1170

Readers community rating: votes 0

1. Campisi J.M. Reconsidering Political Risk in Developed Economies. Journal of Political Risk, 2016, vol. 4, no. 8 (August). Available at: http://www.jpolrisk.com/re-considering-political-risk-analysis-in-developed-economies/ (accessed 31.03.2019).

2. Marcilly J., Ly H.,Ternisien V. European Economies: Will Political Risk Spoil the Party in 2017? Panorama, October 2016. Available at: http://www.coface.cz/en/content/download/142454/2228002/file/B-Panorama+Risque+Politique-GB+10-2016-WEB.pdf (accessed 31.03.2019).

3. Staiger U., Martill B., eds. Brexit and Beyond: Rethinking the Futures of Europe. London, UCL Press, 2018. 293 p. DOI:10.14324/111.9781787352759

4. Rosanvallon P. La Crise de l'Etat-Providence. Paris, Seuil, 1981. 192 p.

5. Greve B., ed. The Times They Are Changing? Crisis and the Welfare State. Oxford, Wiley-Blackwell, 2012. 191 p.

6. Sokolov A. Politicheskij risk ot teorii k praktike. Moskva, Pokolenie, 2009. 144 c. [Sokolov A. Politicheskii risk ot teorii k praktike [Political Risk from Theory to Practice]. Moscow, Pokolenie, 2009. 144 p.]

7. Solov'ev A.I. Prinyatie gosudarstvennykh reshenij. Moskva, Knorus, 2006. 344 c. [Solov'ev A.I. Prinyatie gosudarstvennykh reshenii [Political Decision Making]. Moscow, Knorus, 2006. 344 p.]

8. Tolstukhin O.D. Politicheskiĭ risk kak funktsional'naya sostavlyayuschaya sovremennoĭ sistemy natsional'noĭ bezopasnosti Rossii. Disc. kand. polit. nauk. Moskva, MGU im. M.V. Lomonosova, 2010. 163 c. [Tolstukhin O.D. Politicheskiĭ risk kak funktsional'naya sostavlyayushchaya sovremennoĭ sistemy natsional'noĭ bezopasnosti Rossii. Diss. kand. polit. nauk [Political Risk as a Functional Element of Russian National Security System. Cand. Diss (Polit.)]. Moscow, Lomonosov MSU, 2010. 163 p.]

9. Knight F. Risk, Uncertainty and Profit. New York, Augustus M. Kelley, 1964. 381 p.

10. Root F. US Business Abroad and Political Risk. MSU Business Topics, 1968, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 73-80.

11. Rummel R., Heenan D. How Multinationals Analyse Political Risk. Harvard Business Review, 1978, vol. 56. no. 1 (Jan-Feb.), pp. 67-76.

12. Whitman M. Government Risk-Sharing in Foreign Investment. Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press, 1965. 358 p.

13. Bordovskikh A.N. Politicheskie riski mezhdunarodnogo biznesa v usloviyakh globalizatsii. Moskva, Aspekt Press, 2015. 318 c. [Bordovskikh A.N. Politicheskie riski mezhdunarodnogo biznesa v usloviyakh globalizatsii [Political Risks of International Business in the Face of Globalization]. Moscow, Aspekt Press, 2015. 318 p.]

14. Kennedy C.R. Political Risk Management: a Portfolio Planning Model. Business Horizons, 1998, vol. 31, issue 6, pp. 26-33.

15. “Gilets jaunes”: 200 millions d'euros de dégradations (Le Maire). Le Figaro, 21.03.2019. Available at: http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/gilets-jaunes-200-millions-d-euros-de-degradations-le-maire-20190321 (accessed 21.03.2019).

16. Karyakin M.Yu. Strakhovanie politicheskikh riskov vneshnetorgovykh operatsij i mezhdunarodnykh investitsij. Moskva, Avuarkonsalting, 2002. 144 c. [Karyakin M.Yu. Strakhovanie politicheskikh riskov vneshnetorgovykh operatsii i mezhdunarodnykh investitsii [Insurance of Political Risks in Foreign Trade Operations]. Moscow, Avuarkonsalting, 2002. 144 p.]

17. Bordovskikh A.N. Politicheskie riski: sovremennye problemy otsenki i teoreticheskogo modelirovaniya. Diss. kand. polit. nauk. Moskva, 2009. 195 s. [Bordovskikh A.N. Politicheskie riski: sovremennye problemy otsenki i teoreticheskogo modelirovaniya. Diss. kand. polit. nauk [Political Risks: Recent Problems in Evaluation and Theoretical Modeling. Cand. Diss (Polit.)]. Moscow, 2009. 195 p.]

18. Amewokunu Y., Su Z. Repenser l’evaluation du risque-pays dans le contexte de la mondialisation. Management International, 2009, vol. 13, no. 2, pr. 35-52.

19. Borisov N.A., Volkov V.A. Ehkologicheskaya paradigma kak osnovanie politicheskoj ehkologii. Vlast', 2013, № 2, sc. 167-170. [Borisov N.A., Volkov V.A. Ekologicheskaya paradigma kak osnovanie politicheskoi ekologii [Ecological Paradigm as a Foundation of Political Ecology]. The Authority, 2013, no. 2, pp. 167-170.]

20. Buss'e R. Izmenenie klimata kak vyzov globalizatsii. Na puti k novomu opredeleniyu chrezvychajnoj situatsii. Gosudarstvennoe upravlenie. Ehlektronnyj vestnik, 2018, № 69, sc. 243-263 (stat'ya na angl. yaz.). [Boussier R. Climate Change and Emergency. Towards New Redefinition of Emergency Concept. Public Administration E-Journal, 2018, no. 69, pp. 243-263.]

21. Kravchuk M.A., Krasnov Yu.I., Malinin V.N. Global'nyj ehkologicheskij krizis: strategiya vyzhivaniya. Obschestvo. Sreda. Razvitie (Terra Humana), 2009, № 1, cc. 194-205. [Kravchuk M.A., Krasnov Yu.I., Malinin V.N. Global'nyi ekologicheskii krizis: strategiya vyzhivaniya [Global Environmental Crisis: the Survival Strategy]. Society. Environment. Development (Terra Humana), 2009, no. 1, pp. 194-205.]

22. Beck U. The Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity. London, Sage, 1992. 260 p.

23. Beck U. Ecological Politics in an Age of Risk. Cambridge, Polity Press, 1995. 216 p.

24. Kotova I.N. Ehkologicheskie riski i ikh vliyanie na sotsial'nye protsessy v munitsipal'nom rajone. Sotsiologiya vlasti, 2008, № 3, sc. 99-107. [Kotova I.N. Ekologicheskie riski i ikh vliyanie na sotsial'nye protsessy v munitsipal'nom raione [Ecological Risks and Their Influence on Social Processes in Municipal District]. Sociology of Power, 2008, no. 3, pp. 99-107.]

25. Karyakin Yu.V. Prirodnye i tekhnogennye katastrofy: novye vyzovy i ugrozy ustojchivomu razvitiyu. Svobodnaya mysl', 2010, № 9(1616), cc. 77-90. [Karyakin Yu.V. Prirodnye i tekhnogennye katastrofy: novye vyzovy i ugrozy ustoichivomu razvitiyu [Natural and Anthropogenic Disasters: New Challenges and Threats to Sustainable Development]. Svobodnaya mysl', 2010, no. 9(1616), pp. 77-90.]

26. Shearman D., Smith J.W. The Climate Change Challenge and the Failure of Democracy. London, Praeger, 2007. 181 p.

27. Le Billon P., Duffy R. Conflict Ecologies: Connecting Political Ecology and Peace and Conflict Studies. Journal of Political Ecology, 2018, July 25(1), pp. 239-260.

28. Werrell C, Femia F., eds. The Arab Spring and Climate Change. A Climate and Security Correlations Series. Center for American Progress. February 2013. Available at: https://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/ClimateChangeArabSpring.pdf (accessed 15.01.2019).

29. Sternberg T. Chinese Drought, Bread and the Arab Spring. Applied Geography, 2012, May, no. 34, pp. 519-524.

30. Pepermans Y., Maeseele P. The Politicization of Climate Change: Problem or Solution? Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, May 2016, no. 7(4). Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/303320767_The_politicization_of_climate_change_problem_or_solution_Politicization_of_climate_change (accessed 01.05.2019). DOI: 10.1002/wcc.405

31. Williams C. An Environmental Victimology. Social Justice, 1996, vol. 23, no. 4(66), pp. 16-40.

32. Solov'ev A.I., Bordovskikh A.N. Politicheskie seti kak novyj istochnik politicheskikh riskov. Gosudarstvennoe upravlenie. Ehlektronnyj vestnik, 2015, № 51, cc. 185-212 (stat'ya na angl. yaz.). [Solov‘ev A.I., Bordovskikh A.N. Policy Networks as a New Source of Political Risk. Public Administration E-Journal, 2015, no. 51, pp. 185-212.]

33. Boquet A., Badré M., Feldzer G., Constantin E. Rapport. Mission de médiation relative au projet d’aéroport du Grand Ouest. Ministère de la transition écologique et solidaire. 2017. 63 p. Available at: https://www.vie-publique.fr/sites/default/files/rapport/pdf/174000853.pdf (accessed 01.05.2019).

34. Baughen S. Expropriation and Environmental Regulation: the Lessons of NAFTA. Journal of Environmental Law, 2006, vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 207-228.

35. Piketty T. “Yellow Vests” and Tax Justice. Le Monde, 11.12.2018. Available at: http://piketty.blog.lemonde.fr/2018/12/11/yellow-vests-and-tax-justice/ (accessed 01.05.2019).

36. Rosanvallon P. Un Nouvel Age de Social. Le Monde, 10.12.2018, p. 23.

37. Bastié E. Christophe Guilluy: les “gilets jaunes” attestent la révolte de la France périphérique. Le Figaro, 19.11.2019. Available at: http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/societe/2018/11/18/31003-20181118ARTFIG00132-christophe-guilluy-les-8220gilets-jaunes8221-attestent-la-revolte-de-la-france-peripherique.php (accessed 01.05.2019).

38. L’écotaxe poids lourds: un echec stratégique, un abandon coûteux. Rapport public annuel 2017. Cour des comptes. Février 2017. Available at: http://www.unionroutiere.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/2017-02-08-Cour_des_comptes_2017_Ecotaxe_PL.pdf (accessed 08.05.2019).

39. Les Français et la politique economique et ecologique du gouvernement. Ifop pour Le Journal du Dimanche. Septembre 2018, FD/JPD N°115790. Available at: https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/115790-Rapport-JDD.pdf (accessed 13.03.2019).

40. L’environnement et la présidentielle de 2017. Ifop pour WWF. Septembre 2018, FD/JPD N°114172. Available at: https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/3566-1-study_file.pdf (accessed 15.03.2019).

41. Le regard des Français sur le mouvement des “Gilets jaunes”. Ifop pour Le Journal du Dimanche. Novembre 2018, FD N°115970. Available at: https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/115970-Rapport-JDD.pdf (accessed 15.03.2019).

42. LOI n° 2018-1213 du 24 décembre 2018 portant mesures d'urgence économiques et sociales. Legifrance.gouv.fr. Available at: https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/affichTexte.do?cidTexte=JORFTEXT000037851899&categorieLien=id (accessed 01.05.2019).

43. Compte general de l’etat 2017. Annexe au projet de la loi de reglement du budget et d’approbation des comptes. Available at: https://www.performance-publique.budget.gouv.fr/sites/performance_publique/files/files/documents/budget/comptes/2017/CGE2017.pdf (accessed 28.04.2019).

44. Moliner-Dubost M. Expropriation et environnement. Le bicentenaire de la loi du 8 mars 1810 sur l'expropriation pour cause d'utilité publique. Tours, dec. 2010. Université Lyon III Jean Moulin. Available at: https://hal-univ-lyon3.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00917442 (accessed 01.05.2019).

45. “Gilets jaunes” et niveau de vie, les dix graphiques de la colère. Le Monde, 05.12.2019. Available at: https://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2018/12/05/niveau-de-vie-les-10-graphiques-de-la-colere_5392911_3224.html (accessed 08.04.2019).

46. Guisse N., Hoibian S. Les Francais et leurs territoires: vecus et attentes vis-a-vis des pouvoirs publics. Collection des rapport N336. Paris, Credoc, Novembre 2017. 141 p. Available at: https://www.credoc.fr/download/pdf/Rapp/R336.pdf (accessed 08.05.2019).

47. Buss'e R.F.F. Ehffektivnost' sovremennykh demokratij pered litsom global'nykh chrezvychajnykh vyzovov. Disc. kand. polit. nauk. Moskva, 2018. 175 c. [Boussier R.F.F. Effektivnost' sovremennykh demokratii pered litsom global'nykh chrezvychainykh vyzovov. Diss. kand. polit. nauk. [The Effectiveness of Modern Democracy in the Face of Global Emergencies, Cand. Diss (Polit.)]. Moscow, 2018. 175 p.]

Система Orphus

Loading...
Up