The Phenomena of Eco-Political Risk Based on Yellow Vests Movement in France

Occupation: Senior Researcher, Faculty of Public Administration
Affiliation: Lomonosov Moscow State University
Address: 27/4, Lomonosovskii Prosp., GSP-1, Moscow, 119991, Russian Federation

Journal name

Mirovaia ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia

Edition

Volume 64 Issue 3

Pages

36-46

Abstract

Ecological crisis represents the major challenge for democracies in the era of globalization. Researchers and experts agree that the climate change, regardless its “slow-burning” nature, constitutes the risk of dramatic economic and social transformations causing mass impoverishment, conflicts, wars and dislocation of people. Under such conditions, the democratic governments will be forced to conduct unprecedented reforms in order to resist the threat. Postponing the energy transition will only cause more drastic and extensive measures in the future. Despite general awareness of the problem, ecology remains the claimed priority which is poorly reflected in real actions of the authorities. The present article explains this obvious lack of governments’ action by the social resistance to the energy transition. This resistance remains implicit but reveals itself when the energy transition amplifies a short-term financial vulnerability of individuals. The Yellow Vests movement represents an illustration of this conflict of values. Mostly interpreted as a manifestation of a profound social crisis of liberal democracies, it originates in the ecological dilemma: people’s support of the energy transition contradicts their willingness to participate in it financially. This dilemma results in significant growth of a new type of eco-political risk having ecological origins, but taking a classical form of civil unrest and, generally, leading to political instability. In accordance with this theory, Yellow Vests movement started as a protest in response to higher ecological component of the fuel tax (especially the diesel), which was thought as a stimulus for the energy transition but became an accelerator of social tension. French polls show that people acknowledge the ecological crisis and the treat it represents. Furthermore, they await and approve the energy transition as a main condition for solving the climate change problem. Nevertheless, the same polls disclose people’s unwillingness to take their financial part of responsibility in this transition and unpreparedness for any decrease of their purchasing power. This dilemma becomes a source of political instability and social unrest especially in democratic countries, where the welfare state model is particularly well-rooted and comprises a fundamental value for people. Nonetheless, in a short-term perspective, the energy transition has a tangible cost which public finances have no possibility to bear without raising the financial pressure on business and individuals. The public debt burden, continually increasing explicit social expenditures, off-balance-sheet liabilities including implicit pensions, and, on the other hand, extremely low economic growth do not allow any additional public spending. Thus, should the energy transition be undertaken (and there are no doubts it is the only possibility for democracies to survive), it will be financed by the business and individuals. With this perspective, researchers tend to develop a new framework for political risk analysis, where the ecological factors are significantly reinforced. While there are some studies on the expropriation risk caused by ecological transition, the civil unrest remains poorly investigated. The present article aims at investigating this new eco-political peril. The author believes, the individuals’ rejection of environmental solidarity constitutes a major factor of political instability in the liberal democracies, and it will amplify in proportion to the intensity of governments’ actions for the energy transition. The longer the democratic governments postpone the necessary climate decisions, the harder these measures will be for the people, and the stronger the consequences of the inevitable political risk.

Keywords

political risk, global ecological crisis, climate change, yellow vests movement, civil unrest, energy transition, Welfare state

Received

29.03.2020

Publication date

29.03.2020

Number of characters

38679

Cite

GOST	Bordovskikh A. The Phenomena of Eco-Political Risk Based on Yellow Vests Movement in France // Mirovaia ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia – 2020. – V. 64. – Issue 3 C. 36-46 [Electronic resource]. URL: http://ras.jes.su/meimo/s013122270009007-8-1-en (circulation date: 27.04.2024). DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-3-36-46
MLA	Bordovskikh, Anastasia N "The Phenomena of Eco-Political Risk Based on Yellow Vests Movement in France." Mirovaia ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia 64.3 (2020):36-46. DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-3-36-46
APA	Bordovskikh A. (2020). The Phenomena of Eco-Political Risk Based on Yellow Vests Movement in France. Mirovaia ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia 64(3), pp.36-46 DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-3-36-46

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На пути к формированию феномена экополитического риска

Экологическая дилемма “желтых жилетов”

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1	Движение “желтых жилетов” во Франции стало одной из главных тем политической дискуссии на рубеже 2018 г. и 2019 г. Объединявшее на пике своего развития менее 300 тыс. активистов, но нашедшее поддержку у миллионов пассивных сограждан, оно оказалось на перекрестке таких актуальных сегодня вопросов политического анализа, как эволюция механизмов работы гражданского общества, становление новых демократических институтов и форм представительства, кризис западной модели демократии и государства всеобщего благосостояния. Вместе с тем движение должно вызывать интерес и у исследователей политических рисков, так как оно довольно точно иллюстрирует отмеченную в современной литературе тенденцию распространения последних на территории индустриально развитых стран [1; 2; 3, pp. 260-265]. Настоящая статья продолжает серию работ по данной тематике, однако главное внимание здесь уделено не столько самой манифестации классического политического риска гражданских волнений, сколько ее глубинным источникам, связанным с крайне актуальной проблемой глобального экологического кризиса.
2	В основе работы лежит гипотеза, что в ряде стран политический риск будет иметь преимущественно экологическое происхождение. Актуальность подобного аналитического среза объясняется усилением внимания со стороны общественности и государства к проблеме экологической чрезвычайности, а также мерами, которые будут приняты либеральными правительствами в ближайшие годы и, несомненно, окажут влияние на существующие в этих странах социально-экономические стандарты. Ввиду исторических и социально-психологических особенностей развитие риска гражданский волнений, связанных с экологической тематикой, наиболее вероятно в индустриально развитых западных странах, которым со времени окончания Второй мировой войны удалось избежать крупных потрясений и где укоренилась модель всеобщего благосостояния, переживающая сегодня свой самый серьезный кризис экономической сбалансированности [4; 5].
3	Влияние экологического фактора на политическую стабильность все чаще становится объектом научного интереса. Практически весь спектр классических манифестаций политических рисков – экспроприации, войны, восстания и забастовки, государственное вмешательство – могут быть продиктованы экологическими обстоятельствами. Важно также отметить, что не просто проблема климата и глобального потепления становится дополнительным фактором политического риска, напротив, она получает роль главной венчурной силы ряда политических катаклизмов. Таким образом, вместе с политическими рисками гражданских восстаний или экспроприаций, формирующихся под воздействием классических социально-экономических факторов, сегодня получают развитие и их новые формы, где главную функцию выполняет экологическая составляющая. В связи с этим представляется целесообразным использование в их отношении нового термина – “экополитического” риска, – который позволит уточнить его особую природу.

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The Phenomena of Eco-Political Risk Based on Yellow Vests Movement in France

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