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## Optimizing the consolidated budget of the development Program for a diversified industrial complex

PIIS042473880016412-2-1
DOI10.31857/S042473880016412-2
Publication type Article
Status Published
Authors
Occupation: head of the Laboratory of strategic development of industries
Affiliation: Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences
Address: Moscow, Russian Federation
Occupation: Leading Research Associate
Affiliation: Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences
Address: Moscow, Russian Federation
Occupation: Senior researcher
Affiliation: Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences
Address: Moscow, Russian Federation
Occupation: Research Scholar
Affiliation: Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences
Address: Moscow, Russian Federation
Journal nameEkonomika i matematicheskie metody
EditionVolume 57 Issue 3
Pages79-85
Abstract

In a situation of economic downturn, complicated by COVID-19 pandemic, which has covered many countries in the world, including Russia, it is necessary to choose ways to ensure more or less sustainable economic growth. The condition in the Russian chemical complex is analyzed. The choice of the chemical complex as one of the priority ways of the Russian economic development has been substantiated. A conditional long-term development Program for the Russian chemical complex is worked out. This Program takes into account the shortcomings of fragmented government measures for the development of chemical and petrochemical industries. It is argued that the implementation of the Program will allow increasing the domestic supply for high-value-added hydrocarbon products, generally contributing to the reduction of the raw material share of Russian exports. The authors' earlier research to optimize structure of the development program for a large industrial complex in conditions of limited resources is developed. In particular, an approach to the choice of the optimal structure of the development programs budget, consisting of such sources of financing as assignments from the national budget, private capital, long-term credits, as well as reinvested profit from investment projects participating in the Program is proposed. The results of economic and mathematical modeling and computer experimentation for optimizing structure of this Programs consolidated budget, which make it possible to significantly improve its target indicators, as well as to involve socially significant low-profit investment projects of small and medium-sized businesses, are presented.

Keywordschemical complex, investment project, development program, program budget, sources of financing, reinvestment, long-term credit, optimization, modeling
Publication date22.09.2021
Number of characters17645

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1

# INTRODUCTION

2 Long before the coronavirus pandemic experts consider the economic situation in the country as difficult. At the same time, some experts expressed cautious optimism. For example, the late Academician V.V. Ivanter, mentioning the low growth rates of the Russian economy (1.5–2%) after the economic recession and subsequent stagnation, believed that there are areas of the national economy with high development potential that are capable of pulling the entire economy forward. These are the agricultural sector, developing “quite fantastic pace”, the military-industrial complex as well as the chemical industry. These are also successfully developing regions, to which V.V. Ivanter ranks Belgorod, Voronezh, Rostov regions and some other subjects of the Russian Federation (Ivanter, 2018).
3 We believe that at the current stage of the Russian economic development, such drivers of economic growth can also be mechanical engineering, primarily the precision one, the pharmaceutical industry, and information technology.
4 The authors focus on the Russian chemical complex, the growth rates of which at all stages of its development outstripped the growth rates of GDP. The development of the chemical complex can significantly change the raw material nature of the domestic economy, since the rich internal reserves of hydrocarbon raw materials can increasingly be consumed by its petrochemical division.
5

# RUSSIAN CHEMICAL COMPLEX: SITUATION AND PROSPECTS OF DEVELOPMENT

6 Experts predict that global demand for oil in the future will grow by 1% per year (Long-term forecast…, 2019; Kopytin, 2020), while for the products of the chemical complex (chemical and petrochemical industries) this figure will be at least 3% (Rajeev, Pati, Padhi, 2019; Spitz, 2019). The chemical complex is the link between the production and processing of oil and gas and such industries as mechanical engineering, all types of construction, high-tech, etc. The products of the chemical complex are, to a certain extent, used in all sectors of the economy and spheres of life, and are involved in achieving the goals of all existing national projects. It should be noted that chemical complex of the USSR was second only to the United States and in various years ranked no less than fourth in the world, competing only with Japan and Germany. Nowadays, the chemical complex of Russia is in the middle of the world second ten, giving place not only to the United States and China, but also to Japan and a number of European countries, as well as to such developing countries as India, Saudi Arabia, the Republic of Korea, Brazil, and Iran.
7 The greatest decline in the development of the Russian chemical complex occurred in the 1990s, when the enterprises of the complex were privatized and their new owners mercilessly, to the point of complete wear and tear, exploited the existing equipment. A relatively reasonable production policy was typical for the producers of mineral fertilizers, as well as for the producers and processors of mass-use polymers and rubber. In order not to degrade completely, the enterprises of the chemical complex began to unite into commercial and industrial groups (this was done by the producers of mineral fertilizers) or became part of the emerging vertically integrated oil companies and “Gazprom”. In the conditions, when the main task was survival, there was no opportunity to develop long-term development strategies. As a result, the country's chemical complex has lost its main advantages: high growth rates and efficiency. Some improvement was observed in the early 2000s (the so-called “fat years”), but the global economic crisis of 2008–2009 pushed the Russian chemical complex back again (Braginsky, 2018; Nikitin, Makeeva, 2011).
8 In the early 2010s, the government programs of long-term development, widely used in the USSR, began to be developed for the chemical complex (Development plan…, 2013). In 2012, the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation set up a long-term plan for the petrochemical industry, and the Ministry of Industry of the Russian Federation developed a similar plan for the chemical industry.
9 It should be noted that both long-term programs were not linked to each other, which was a characteristic feature of the practice of program management in the USSR, when strategies for the petrochemical industry and the production of chemicals and their derivatives were formulated, respectively, by the Ministry of Oil Refining and Petrochemical Industry and the Ministry of Chemical Industry (Klepikov, Moskvitina, 2012; Slavninskaya, 2013).
10 At the same time, the revived long-term planning for the already Russian chemical complex was aimed at eliminating structural imbalances and was supported by measures of economic, organizational, technical and legal support.
11 The main goal of the aforementioned development programs for the branches of the chemical complex was the creation of large industrial clusters, i.e. geographically localized, interconnected industries, institutions and organizations, formed into a single organization structure.

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