Optimizing the consolidated budget of the development Program for a diversified industrial complex

Publication type Article
Status Published
Occupation: head of the Laboratory of strategic development of industries
Affiliation: Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences
Address: Moscow, Russian Federation
Occupation: Leading Research Associate
Affiliation: Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences
Address: Moscow, Russian Federation
Occupation: Senior researcher
Affiliation: Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences
Address: Moscow, Russian Federation
Occupation: Research Scholar
Affiliation: Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences
Address: Moscow, Russian Federation
Journal nameEkonomika i matematicheskie metody
EditionVolume 57 Issue 3

In a situation of economic downturn, complicated by COVID-19 pandemic, which has covered many countries in the world, including Russia, it is necessary to choose ways to ensure more or less sustainable economic growth. The condition in the Russian chemical complex is analyzed. The choice of the chemical complex as one of the priority ways of the Russian economic development has been substantiated. A conditional long-term development Program for the Russian chemical complex is worked out. This Program takes into account the shortcomings of fragmented government measures for the development of chemical and petrochemical industries. It is argued that the implementation of the Program will allow increasing the domestic supply for high-value-added hydrocarbon products, generally contributing to the reduction of the raw material share of Russian exports. The authors' earlier research to optimize structure of the development program for a large industrial complex in conditions of limited resources is developed. In particular, an approach to the choice of the optimal structure of the development program`s budget, consisting of such sources of financing as assignments from the national budget, private capital, long-term credits, as well as reinvested profit from investment projects participating in the Program is proposed. The results of economic and mathematical modeling and computer experimentation for optimizing structure of this Program`s consolidated budget, which make it possible to significantly improve its target indicators, as well as to involve socially significant low-profit investment projects of small and medium-sized businesses, are presented.

Keywordschemical complex, investment project, development program, program budget, sources of financing, reinvestment, long-term credit, optimization, modeling
Publication date22.09.2021
Number of characters17645
100 rub.
When subscribing to an article or issue, the user can download PDF, evaluate the publication or contact the author. Need to register.
Размещенный ниже текст является ознакомительной версией и может не соответствовать печатной


2 Long before the coronavirus pandemic experts consider the economic situation in the country as difficult. At the same time, some experts expressed cautious optimism. For example, the late Academician V.V. Ivanter, mentioning the low growth rates of the Russian economy (1.5–2%) after the economic recession and subsequent stagnation, believed that there are areas of the national economy with high development potential that are capable of pulling the entire economy forward. These are the agricultural sector, developing “quite fantastic pace”, the military-industrial complex as well as the chemical industry. These are also successfully developing regions, to which V.V. Ivanter ranks Belgorod, Voronezh, Rostov regions and some other subjects of the Russian Federation (Ivanter, 2018).
3 We believe that at the current stage of the Russian economic development, such drivers of economic growth can also be mechanical engineering, primarily the precision one, the pharmaceutical industry, and information technology.
4 The authors focus on the Russian chemical complex, the growth rates of which at all stages of its development outstripped the growth rates of GDP. The development of the chemical complex can significantly change the raw material nature of the domestic economy, since the rich internal reserves of hydrocarbon raw materials can increasingly be consumed by its petrochemical division.


6 Experts predict that global demand for oil in the future will grow by 1% per year (Long-term forecast…, 2019; Kopytin, 2020), while for the products of the chemical complex (chemical and petrochemical industries) this figure will be at least 3% (Rajeev, Pati, Padhi, 2019; Spitz, 2019). The chemical complex is the link between the production and processing of oil and gas and such industries as mechanical engineering, all types of construction, high-tech, etc. The products of the chemical complex are, to a certain extent, used in all sectors of the economy and spheres of life, and are involved in achieving the goals of all existing national projects. It should be noted that chemical complex of the USSR was second only to the United States and in various years ranked no less than fourth in the world, competing only with Japan and Germany. Nowadays, the chemical complex of Russia is in the middle of the world second ten, giving place not only to the United States and China, but also to Japan and a number of European countries, as well as to such developing countries as India, Saudi Arabia, the Republic of Korea, Brazil, and Iran.
7 The greatest decline in the development of the Russian chemical complex occurred in the 1990s, when the enterprises of the complex were privatized and their new owners mercilessly, to the point of complete wear and tear, exploited the existing equipment. A relatively reasonable production policy was typical for the producers of mineral fertilizers, as well as for the producers and processors of mass-use polymers and rubber. In order not to degrade completely, the enterprises of the chemical complex began to unite into commercial and industrial groups (this was done by the producers of mineral fertilizers) or became part of the emerging vertically integrated oil companies and “Gazprom”. In the conditions, when the main task was survival, there was no opportunity to develop long-term development strategies. As a result, the country's chemical complex has lost its main advantages: high growth rates and efficiency. Some improvement was observed in the early 2000s (the so-called “fat years”), but the global economic crisis of 2008–2009 pushed the Russian chemical complex back again (Braginsky, 2018; Nikitin, Makeeva, 2011).
8 In the early 2010s, the government programs of long-term development, widely used in the USSR, began to be developed for the chemical complex (Development plan…, 2013). In 2012, the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation set up a long-term plan for the petrochemical industry, and the Ministry of Industry of the Russian Federation developed a similar plan for the chemical industry.
9 It should be noted that both long-term programs were not linked to each other, which was a characteristic feature of the practice of program management in the USSR, when strategies for the petrochemical industry and the production of chemicals and their derivatives were formulated, respectively, by the Ministry of Oil Refining and Petrochemical Industry and the Ministry of Chemical Industry (Klepikov, Moskvitina, 2012; Slavninskaya, 2013).
10 At the same time, the revived long-term planning for the already Russian chemical complex was aimed at eliminating structural imbalances and was supported by measures of economic, organizational, technical and legal support.
11 The main goal of the aforementioned development programs for the branches of the chemical complex was the creation of large industrial clusters, i.e. geographically localized, interconnected industries, institutions and organizations, formed into a single organization structure.

Number of purchasers: 0, views: 42

Readers community rating: votes 0

1. Aganbegyan A.G. (2019). On urgent measures to resume social and economic growth. Studies on Russian Economic Development, 1 (172), 3–15 (in Russian).

2. Braginsky O.B. (2017). The choice of priority projects in the implementation of government programs in conditions of limited financial resources. Economic Analysis Theory and Practice, 16, 12, 2254–2269 (in Russian).

3. Braginsky O.B. (2018). Development of domestic oil and gas chemistry: Course correction. NefteGazoKhimiya, 1, 5–10 (in Russian).

4. Braginsky O.B., Tatevosyan G.M., Sedova S.V. (2017). State development programs: Ways to improve. Economics and Mathematical Methods, 53, 4, 3—12 (in Russian).

5. Braginsky O.B., Tatevosyan G.M., Sedova S.V. (2019). Managing developmental programs (on the example of the chemical industry).Economics and Mathematical Methods, 55, 3, 76—87 (in Russian).

6. Braginsky O.B., Tatevosyan G.M., Sedova S.V., Magomedov R.Sh. (2020). The economic mechanism of development programs: the interaction of economic instruments. Preprint WP/2020/329. Moscow: CEMI RAS (in Russian).

7. Danilova Z.S. (2020). Review of the state of the Russian chemical industry. Economics and Business: Theory and Practice, 12 (1), 208–210 (in Russian).

8. Developmental plan of petrochemistry: Reality or good intentions (2013). NefteGazovaya Vertikal, 3, 50–59 (in Russian). [План развития нефтегазохимии: реальность или благие намерения (2013) // Нефтегазовая вертикаль. № 3.С. 50–59.]

9. Ivanter V.V. (2018). Prospects for the economic development of Russia. Studies on Russian Economic Development, 3 (168), 3–6 (in Russian).

10. Klepikov D.N., Moskvitina T.G. (2012). Development strategy of the chemical and petrochemical industry in Russia for the period up to 2015: Results and prospects. Bulletin of the Chemical Industry, 3 (66), 25–27 (in Russian).

11. Kopytin I.A. (2020). World oil market: A pandemic will bring the peak of global oil demand closer. World Economy and International Relations, 64, 9, 26–36 (in Russian).

12. Kuznetsov N.V. (2014). Financial support of electric power enterprises in Russia in the context of the implementation of industry development programs. Fundamental Research, 6, 8, 1431–1438 (in Russian).

13. Long-term forecast of world oil demand until 2040 (2019).Center for energy research at IMEMO RAS (in Russian). Available at: https://www.imemo.ru/energyeconomics/index.php?page_id=1663

14. Nikitin S.A., Makeeva A.S. (2011). A systemic view on the problem of the efficiency of functioning of enterprises of the chemical complex of Russia. Economy of Region, 2, 172–179.

15. Rajeev A., Pati R.K., Padhi S.S. (2019). Sustainable supply chain management in the chemical industry: Evolution, opportunities, and challenges. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 149, 275–291.

16. Sedova S.V. (2015). Model of the investment programs’ structure formation. Economics and Mathematical Methods, 51, 2, 89–102 (in Russian).

17. Slavninskaya L. (2013). Gas chemistry: Costs of strategy. NefteGazovaya Vertikal, 3, 66–72 (in Russian).

18. Spitz P.H. (2019).The global chemical industry is poised for change. Primed for success: The story of Scientific Design Company. Available at: https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2F978-3-030-12314-7.pdf

Система Orphus