The model of differentiated products market for its development forecasting (on the example of the cheese market)

 
PIIS042473880010497-5-1
DOI10.31857/S042473880010497-5
Publication type Article
Status Published
Authors
Affiliation: All-Russian Institute of Agrarian Problems and Informatics after A.A. Nikonov, The Federal Research Center for Agrarian Economics and Social Development of Rural Territories — VNIIESH
Address: Russian Federation,
Journal nameEkonomika i matematicheskie metody
EditionVolume 56 Issue 3
Pages68-78
Abstract

We developed a partial equilibrium model for assessing the development forecasts for the horizontally differentiated products market, which allows us to predict the main parameters of the supply and demand of the commodity market. The model includes two sub-models. Using the pricing model in the market for differentiated products with two competitors, the parameters of price equilibrium are determined. The estimates obtained are then used in the forecast model. The practical possibilities of the model are demonstrated on the example of the Russian rennet cheese market. An analysis of the forecast showed that in the future it is expected to equalize the rate of domestic production and imports. Producer prices will rise, while the import price are likely to decline. The growth in consumption will mainly be ensured by imports. A significant part of the demand due to a decrease in the population’s cash income will move to more affordable food segments. The forecast model for the development of commodity markets for differentiated products is a one-sector model of partial equilibrium and is intended for government bodies that make decisions on the development and justification of economic policy measures.

Keywordsimperfect competition, differentiated products market, partial equilibrium model, development forecast, cheese market.
AcknowledgmentThis study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project 19-010-00098).
Received10.07.2020
Publication date04.09.2020
Number of characters30871
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