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The primary assessment of the economic efficiency of strategic directions of development of gas industry in Russia
 
PIIS042473880009219-9-1
DOI10.31857/S042473880009219-9
Publication type Article
Status Published
Authors
Nikita Sasaev 
Occupation: undergraduate
Affiliation: Moscow School of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University
Address: Moscow, Russian Federation
Journal nameEkonomika i matematicheskie metody
EditionVolume 56 Issue 2
Pages52-65
Abstract

Economic, geopolitical and energy instability, both on the global and regional markets, as well as the high dependence of the Russian economy on the oil and gas sector (60% of export revenues and 45% of the state budget revenues in 2018) actualizes the renunciation of the export-raw material vector of the development. The author identifies key strategic directions for the transformation of the gas industry in Russia, and raises the question of the primary assessment of the economic efficiency of their realization. So, the author proposes approach to the primary assessment of strategic priorities through econometric modeling of vector autoregression (VAR) and distributed lag autoregression (ARDL); he also identifies the advantages and disadvantages of these models when conducting a primary assessment of economic efficiency. After that, the author presents and explains the results of the primary assessment of the economic efficiency of these strategic priorities on the example of the impact on economic growth, both in the short and long term. Also, the obtained results are compared with the studies of other authors, which confirm the adequacy and possibility of applying the author's approach to the primary assessment of the economic efficiency of the strategic priorities of the gas industry in Russia.

Keywordsstrategic priority, strategy, strategizing, economic efficiency, vector autoregression model, distributed lag autoregression, gas industry
Received13.04.2020
Publication date11.06.2020
Number of characters34077
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