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Presidential campaign 2021 in Iran: conservators victory in the context of a system crisis
 
PIIS086919080020207-4-1
DOI10.31857/S086919080020207-4
Publication type Article
Status Published
Authors
Anastasia S. Bogacheva 
Occupation: Junior Research Fellow
Affiliation: Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO)
Address: Russian Federation, Moscow
Journal nameVostok. Afro-Aziatskie obshchestva: istoriia i sovremennost
EditionIssue 3
Pages89-100
Abstract

The thirteenth presidential elections were held in Iran in June 2021. The expected victory was won by a representative of the conservative political bloc – Ibrahim Raisi. He had already run for office in 2017 but then lost to Hassan Rouhani. The election of Raisi updated the discussion on the legitimacy of the authorities in the Islamic Republic and the transparency of electoral procedures. By the decision of the Supervisory Board, five of the seven candidates belonged to the conservative political bloc. In the context of the issue of the successor to the Supreme Leader, the appointment of Ibrahim Raisi as a head of the executive branch could be considered strategic. Raisi has a chance to occupy the highest post in the country, if the scenario of 1989 (when Ali Khamenei, who by that time already had presidential experience, was appointed Supreme Leader of Iran) repeated.

Ibrahim Raisi's victory reaffirmed the conservative discourse as the leading one both in Iranian internal political life and in foreign policy. In turn, the current agenda of Iranian conservatism is the consolidation of the divided moderate, traditional, and radical blocs, as well as the development of a single pragmatic political course.

The most important tasks facing the new administration of Raisi are to resolve at least some of the many accumulated problems, which are: economic crisis, consequences of the pandemic, worsening environmental situation, power outages, social disunity, growth of protest activity, and the unresolved crisis around the JCPOA on the Iranian nuclear program.

KeywordsIran, political system, domestic politics, conservatism, political identity, political modernization, system crisis.
AcknowledgmentThe article was prepared within the project "Post-crisis world order: challenges and technologies, competition and cooperation" supported by the grant from Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation program for research projects in priority areas of scientific and technological development (Agreement № 075-15-2020-783).
Received16.05.2022
Publication date22.06.2022
Number of characters28123
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Table of contents

ВЫБОРЫ В ИСТОРИЧЕСКОЙ РЕТРОСПЕКТИВЕ
ИЗБИРАТЕЛЬНАЯ КАМПАНИЯ 2021 г.
КОНСЕРВАТИВНЫЙ ДИСКУРС
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1 Победу на президентских выборах, состоявшихся в Иране в июне 2021 г., одержал представитель консервативного политического блока – сейед Ибрагим Раиси, имя которого неоднократно фигурировало в списке основных претендентов на пост Верховного Лидера ИРИ после А. Хаменеи. Показатель участия иранцев (Раиси получил 61,95% голосов, при явке избирателей 48,8%) в выборах, будучи обусловлен предопределенностью их исхода и пандемией, стал самым низким в истории страны. Что в очередной раз, после выборов 2009 г., актуализировало дискуссию о прозрачности существующих выборных процедур и легитимности руководства Исламской Республики [Toossi, 2021; Iranians vote in presidential election, 2021; Dabashi, 2021]. На внутристрановом уровне эта дискуссия является индикатором общественного раскола и нарастания внутриэлитных противоречий.
2 Предопределенность исхода выборов, 13,4% «белых» (нулевых) бюллетеней (2-е место по числу «голосов»), и особенности президентской кампании 2021 г. могут свидетельствовать об углублении общественно-политических проблем, ослаблении «народной» составляющей легитимности исламского режима. Но в условиях нарастания кризисных тенденций в политической, экономической и социальной сферах в последние годы приоритеты руководства Исламской Республики изменились. Вместо либерализации политической системы на повестку дня был возвращен вопрос о поддержании ее резистентности внешним и внутренним вызовам и обеспечении безопасности руководства. С этой точки зрения, победа на выборах заранее подготовленного системного кандидата была предпочтительнее и позволила сосредоточить основные рычаги управления в руках представителей консервативного идейно-политического течения, тем самым обеспечив системе консервативный вектор развития.
3 Тема выборов в ИРИ рассматривалась российскими, иранскими и западными учеными и экспертами как сама по себе [Манучихри, 2007; Дунаева, 2017(2); Филин, Кокликов, 2017; Dabashi, 2021; Nada, Dickson, 2021; Toossi, 2021], так и в ее тесной взаимосвязи с вопросами трансформации политической системы [Дунаева, 2016; Mohseni, 2016; Мамедова, 2018], идентичности [Дунаева, 2017(1)], политической и экономической модернизации [Мамедова, 2008], общих и частных проблем развития Ирана [Саджапур, 2009; Сажин, 2009; Сажин, Бондарь, 2014; Персидский бастион, 2019]. В данной статье президентские выборы 2021 г. рассматриваются в свете системного кризиса в ИРИ и феномена усиления консервативного лагеря.
4

ВЫБОРЫ В ИСТОРИЧЕСКОЙ РЕТРОСПЕКТИВЕ
5 Одной из важных особенностей иранской политической системы является «двойная» легитимность политической власти. Основными источниками легитимности в стране являются божественная воля, позволившая осуществиться исламской Революции, и воля иранского народа, вверившего в 1979 г. управление страной новому исламскому руководству. Но с годами дистанция между стареющими элитами и народом увеличилась, снизилась эффективность традиционных методов управления, начали проявляться признаки кризиса политической системы.

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