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2020 US Presidential Elections: Two Countries, Two Presidents
 
PIIS268667300013918-9-1
DOI10.31857/S268667300013918-9
Publication type Article
Status Published
Authors
Natalya Travkina 
Affiliation: Institute for the U.S. and Canadian Studies, RAS
Address: Russian Federation, Moscow
Journal nameUSA & Canada: ekonomika, politika, kultura
EditionIssue 3
Pages5-23
Abstract

The results of the 2020 presidential elections are analyzed in the article. It is emphasized that the acute nature of the confrontation between Donald Trump and his supporters and Joseph Biden and the forces supporting him is due to the tectonic demographic shifts in American society. The United States are gradually ceasing to be a white majority society and is turning into an agglomerate of racial and ethnic minorities. According to forecasts, the colorization of America in a couple of decades will lead to the situation when the United States will become a society of a white minority. The 2020 presidential election was a form of confrontation between the Republican Party, which represents white majority America, and the Democratic Party, which represents America of color. The fateful nature of the 2020 elections is also underscored by the unusually large number of Americans who took part in the elections and constituted 67.7% of the total number of registered voters, which was a record turnout rate after the 1900 presidential elections. The election outcome was decided by a complex combination of unfavorable epidemiological and socio-economic factors. The coronavirus pandemic that hit the United States in early 2020 triggered an economic crisis comparable in depth to the Great Depression of the 1930s; mortality rates among ethnic minorities, mainly Afro-Americans, sparked riots in major American cities and key states. Taken together, all these factors played on the side of the Democrats, who managed to enlist the support of over 51% of voters, i.e. the absolute majority of Americans who took part in the elections. The 2020 presidential election has further divided American society. An important element of the split was President Trump's non-recognition of their results, which happened for the first time in the political history of the United States. Donald Trump's refusal to recognize J. Biden's victory also predetermined the attitude of his supporters to their results, which for the most part began to consider J. Biden's victory a consequence of falsification of the voting results, and J. Biden himself as an illegitimate president. In fact, after the 2020 elections the United States were divided into red states and blue states, which also predetermined the formation of a political dual power system.

Keywords2020 presidential elections, Republican Party, Democratic Party, D. Trump-M. Pence, J. Biden-C. Harris, swing states, coronavirus pandemic, socio-economic crisis, polarization of American society
Received05.02.2021
Publication date23.03.2021
Number of characters36497
Cite  
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Table of contents

ВВЕДЕНИЕ
ИТОГОВЫЕ РЕЗУЛЬТАТЫ ПРЕЗИДЕНТСКИХ ВЫБОРОВ 2020 г.
ОСНОВНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ ПРЕДВЫБОРНОГО МАРАФОНА
ОСОБЕННОСТИ И АНОМАЛИИ ПРЕЗИДЕНТСКИХ ВЫБОРОВ 2020 г.
ДЕНЬГИ КАК «КОЗЫРНАЯ КАРТА ИЗ РУКАВА»
ЗАКЛЮЧЕНИЕ: ХОЛОДНАЯ ВОЙНА МЕЖДУ КРАСНЫМИ И СИНИМИ ШТАТАМИ
1

ВВЕДЕНИЕ
2 Президентские выборы 2020 г. в США, безусловно, войдут в исторические анналы как переломные, определившие вектор и траекторию развития американского общества на ближайшее будущее. Их общий итог может быть определён как институциональное разделение Америки на два непримиримых между собой общества, находящихся в состоянии гражданской войны－политической, информационной, культурологической, географической. Основной движущей силой дальнейшего разлома являются набирающие обороты тектонические демографические сдвиги, при которых Америка перестаёт быть обществом белого большинства и становится обществом «цветных» меньшинств. Согласно данным переписи населения США, проведённой в 2020 г., по состоянию на 2019 г., среди 330,0 млн человек населения США белые составляли 60,1%, латиноамериканцы – 18,5%, афроамериканцы – 12,5%, азиатоамериканцы – 5,9%, представители коренных народов Америки – 0,7% и лица, не имеющие точной расово-этнической идентичности – 2,2% [Frey W., 2020].
3 Основная проблема белого населения США состоит в том, что на протяжении 2010–2019 гг. его численность стабилизировалась примерно на уровне 198,0 млн человек, в результате чего его доля сократилась во всех 50 штатах, в 358 из 374 крупнейших городских ареалов страны. В 2019 г. в 27 крупнейших городах из 100, включая Нью-Йорк, Лос-Анджелес, Майами, Даллас, Атланту, Орландо, не говоря уже о столице, Вашингтоне, белое население составляло меньшинство жителей. В этом плане в стране уже практически сформировался синдром «шоколадных городов и ванильных пригородов». Верным признаком стремительно приближающейся «цветнизации» американского населения стал тот факт, что в 2019 г. впервые в американской истории доля белого населения в составе подрастающего поколения в возрасте 16 лет и младше упала ниже 50%, составив 49,95% [Frey W., 2020].
4 В итоге, согласно прогнозам Бюро переписей, уже в 2060 г. (а, возможно, и много раньше) США перестанут быть обществом белого большинства, в том числе и вследствие прогнозируемого уменьшения абсолютной численности белого населения, которое может сократиться до 180 млн человек. [21: 7] Идущие полным ходом в американском обществе демографические сдвиги уже оказали самое непосредственное воздействие на структуру основных групп американских избирателей в президентской кампании 2020 г. В частности, практически во всех штатах наблюдается падение доли зарегистрированных белых избирателей, что связано с тем, что 3/4 прироста численности зарегистрированных избирателей приходится на долю этнических меньшинств. Так, с 2000 г. по 2018 г. численность зарегистрированных избирателей увеличилась в США более чем на 40,0 млн человек и достигла 233,7 млн избирателей; при этом численность белых избирателей увеличилась на 10,0 млн человек, или на 24%, в то время как остальной прирост в размере 30,0 млн человек, или на 76%, пришёлся на долю этнических меньшинств, среди которых на первом месте находились латиноамериканцы － 15,5 млн человек, или 39% [16].

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