Demographic Transition and Family-Demographic Policy

Publication type Article
Status Published
Affiliation: Lomonosov Moscow State University
Address: Russian Federation, Moscow
Journal nameSotsiologicheskie issledovaniya
EditionIssue 11

Proponents of the popular demographic transition theory acknowledge that the transformation of the social institution of the family has led to depopulation in Russia and in many other countries, and will lead to the same consequences worldwide in the future. They claim that depopulation will stop at some point, but do not explain how or why this will happen. Adherents of this theory view changes in the social institution of the family, including the decline in the number of children, not as a crisis, but as an irreversible modernization. The conclusion is made that any attempts by the state to increase birth rate are ineffective, so family-demographic policy cannot be based on the demographic transition theory. Such a basis can be provided by the concept of the institutional crisis of the family, which recognizes the possibility of overcoming this crisis and indicates ways out. Family-demographic policy should contribute to an increase in the number of legal marriages, a decrease in the number of divorces, an increase in the birth rate and the preservation of the connection between generations. Measures to reduce mortality rate and regulate migration are necessary, but do not solve the problem of depopulation and are not part of family-demographic policy.

Keywordsdemographic transition, birth rate, mortality rate, depopulation, social norm, marriage, cohabitation, voluntary childlessness, family crisis, family-demographic policy
AcknowledgmentThis article is a translation of: Синельников А.Б. Демографический переход и семейно-демографическая политика // Sotsiologicheskie Issledovaniia. 2021. No 10: 83–93. DOI: 10.31857/S013216250017168-7. The original research was completed under the sponsorship of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research and the Belarusian Republican Foundation for Basic Research as part of the scientific project No. 2051100020.
Publication date22.12.2021
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