Demographic Transition and Family-Demographic Policy

Proponents of the popular demographic transition theory acknowledge that the transformation of the social institution of the family has led to depopulation in Russia and in many other countries, and will lead to the same consequences worldwide in the future. They claim that depopulation will stop at some point, but do not explain how or why this will happen. Adherents of this theory view changes in the social institution of the family, including the decline in the number of children, not as a crisis, but as an irreversible modernization. The conclusion is made that any attempts by the state to increase birth rate are ineffective, so family-demographic policy cannot be based on the demographic transition theory. Such a basis can be provided by the concept of the institutional crisis of the family, which recognizes the possibility of overcoming this crisis and indicates ways out. Family-demographic policy should contribute to an increase in the number of legal marriages, a decrease in the number of divorces, an increase in the birth rate and the preservation of the connection between generations. Measures to reduce mortality rate and regulate migration are necessary, but do not solve the problem of depopulation and are not part of family-demographic policy.

Ключевые слова

demographic transition, birth rate, mortality rate, depopulation, social norm, marriage, cohabitation, voluntary childlessness, family crisis, family-demographic policy

Источник финансирования

This article is a translation of: Синельников А.Б. Демографический переход и семейно-демографическая политика // Sotsiologicheskie Issledovaniia. 2021. No 10: 83–93. DOI: 10.31857/S013216250017168-7. The original research was completed under the sponsorship of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research and the Belarusian Republican Foundation for Basic Research as part of the scientific project No. 2051100020.

Получено

22.12.2021

Дата публикации

22.12.2021

Кол-во символов

31924

Цитировать Скачать pdf

ГОСТ	Синельников А. Б. Demographic Transition and Family-Demographic Policy // Социологические исследования – 2021. – Номер 11 C. 203-211 [Электронный ресурс]. URL: http://ras.jes.su/socis/s013216250017619-3-1 (дата обращения: 29.04.2024). DOI: 10.31857/S013216250017619-3
MLA	Sinelnikov, Alexander B "Demographic Transition and Family-Demographic Policy." Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya 11 (2021):203-211. DOI: 10.31857/S013216250017619-3
APA	Sinelnikov A. (2021). Demographic Transition and Family-Demographic Policy. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya (11), pp.203-211 DOI: 10.31857/S013216250017619-3

Всего подписок: 0, всего просмотров: 591

Оценка читателей: голосов 0

1. Antonov A. I. (2020) The Collapse of Explanatory Schemes of Demographic Transition. In: Stepanov A. V., Troitskaya I. A., Chudinovskikh O. S. (eds) Strategic Tasks of Demographic Development: Priorities and Regional Features. The Tenth Valentey Readings: A Collection of Reports. Moscow: Ekon. ft MGU im. M. V. Lomonosova: 16–23. (In Russ.)
2. Carlson A. (2003) Society – the Family – the Person: The Social Crisis of America. Alternative Sociological Approach. Moscow: Graal. (In Russ.)
3. Churilova E. V. (2015) Structure and Wellbeing of Singleparent Families in Russia. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya [Sociological Studies]. No. 3: 78–81. (In Russ.)
4. Family and Child Lifestyle: The Results of a Socio-demographic Study. (2018) Moscow: INFRAM. (In Russ.)
5. Gurko T. A., Orlova N. A. (2011) Development of Adolescent Personality in Varying Types of Family. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya [Sociological Studies]. No. 10: 99–110. (In Russ.)
6. Klupt M. A. (2010) Demographic Agenda for the 21st Century: Theories and Realities. Sotsiologicheskie Issledovaniya [Sociological Studies]. No. 8: 60–71. (In Russ.)
7. Lesthaeghe R. (1994) The Second Demographic Transition in Western Countries: An Interpretation. In: Oppenheim
8. Mason K., Jensen A. M. (eds) Gender and Family Change in Industrialized Countries. Oxford: Clarendon Press: 17–62.
9. Notestein F. W. (1945) Population – the Long View. In: Schultz Th. (ed.) Food for the World. Chicago: University of Chicago Press: 37–57.
10. Shevchenko I., Shevchenko P. (2019) Gender Features of Precarity. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya [Sociological Studies]. No. 9: 84–95. (In Russ.) DOI: 10.31857/S0132162500066711.
11. Shevchenko I. O. (2019) Fathers and Fatherhood in Current Russia: Sociological Analysis. Scientific monograph. Moscow: Trovant. (In Russ.)
12. Sinelnikov A. B. (2018) Family and Marriage: Crisis or Modernization? Sotsiologicheskiy zhurnal [Sociological Journal]. Vol. 24. No. 1: 95–113. DOI: 10.19181/socjour.2018.24.1.5715. (In Russ.) Sinelnikov A. B. (2019)
13. Transformation of Marriage and Fertility in Russia. Narodonaselenie [Population]. No. 2: 26–39. DOI: 10.24411/15617785201900013. (In Russ.)
14. World Population Prospects 2019. (2019) United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Dynamics. URL: https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/  (accessed 20.07. 2021).
15. Van de Kaa D. J. (1987) Europe’s Second Demographic Transition. Population Bulletin. Vol. 42. No. 1: 1–59.
16. Vishnevsky A. (2014) The Demographic Revolution is Changing the Reproductive Strategy of Homo Sapiens. Demograficheskoe obozrenie [Demographic Review]. Vol. 1. No. 1: 6–33. DOI: 10.17323/demreview.v1i1.1825. (In Russ.)
17. Vishnevsky A. G. (2019) Demographic Transition and the Problem of Demographic SelfRegulation. Answer to A. B. Sinelnikov. Sotsiologicheskiy zhurnal [Sociological Journal]. Vol. 25. No. 4: 93–104. DOI:10.19181/socjour.2019.25.4.6820. (In Russ.)
18. Zakharov S. V. (ed.) (2015) Population of Russia 2013: The Twenty-first Annual Demographic Report. NRU HSE. Moscow: VShE. (In Russ.)
19. Zakharov S. V., Churilova E. V., Aghajanyan V. (2016) Fertility in Higherorder Marital Unions in Russia: Does a New Partnership Allow for the Realization of the Twochild Ideal? Demograficheskoe obozrenie [Demographic Review]. Vol. 3. No. 1: 35–51. DOI: 10.17323/demreview.v3i1.1762. (In Russ.)