All
 
|
 
 


Dynamics of ethnic and language groups in Ukraine since 1959 and evaluation for 2021
 
PIIS221979310021504-7-1
DOI10.37490/S221979310021504-7
Publication type Article
Status Published
Authors
Andrei Manakov 
Occupation: Doctor of geographical sciences, Professor, Department of Geography
Affiliation: Pskov State University
Address: Russian Federation, Pskov
Natalya Terenina
Occupation: Candidate of geographical sciences, Associate Professor, Department of Geography
Affiliation: Pskov State University
Address: Russian Federation, Pskov
Journal namePskov Journal of Regional Studies
EditionVolume 18. No4/2022
Pages129-145
Abstract

Ukraine is the only one of the European countries of the near abroad that has conducted only one population census in the post-Soviet period. And that was more than twenty years ago. Related to this is the problem of studying ethno-demographic processes in the period after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The problem can be solved only by relying on the methods of ethno-demographic forecasting. The aim of the study is to identify the features of the dynamics of the most numerous ethnic and linguistic groups on the territory of Ukraine in the period from 1959, as well as to estimate their numbers up to 2021. According to the dynamics of the number in the Soviet and post-Soviet periods, the ethnic communities of Ukraine were divided into two main groups. The first group consists of Ukrainians, Russians, Belarusians and Moldovans, whose numbers grew in the Soviet period and decreased in the post-Soviet period. The second group is formed by Jews, Poles, as well as a number of other peoples, whose numbers decreased throughout the entire interval under study. The main scenario of ethno-demographic dynamics up to 2021 assumes the course of assimilation processes (or “titleization” of the population) in the period after the 2001 census, similar to the period from 1989 to 2001. According to this scenario, the share of Russians from 1989 to 2021 within the borders of Ukraine by 2014 should decrease to 10.4 %, or more than twice (and without Crimea — to 8.6 %). In the case of the implementation of the main scenario for the native language, by 2021 the share of Russian-speakers should decrease to 24 % (almost 9 %).

Keywordsethno-demographic processes, ethnic groups, linguistic groups, Ukrainians, Russians, Ukrainian language, Russian language
AcknowledgmentThe reported study was funded by RFBR, project number 20-05-00369 “Transformation of the Ethnocultural Space of Post-Soviet States: Factors, Trends, Prospects”. The authors are grateful to P. E. Suvorkov for his help in estimating the number of ethnic and linguistic groups in Ukraine for 2021.
Received12.08.2022
Publication date22.11.2022
Number of characters18720
Cite   Download pdf To download PDF you should sign in
100 rub.
When subscribing to an article or issue, the user can download PDF, evaluate the publication or contact the author. Need to register.
1 Введение. Украина является единственной из европейских стран ближнего зарубежья, которая в постсоветский период провела всего одну национальную перепись населения, которая состоялась в 2001 г. Первоначально предполагалось, что следующая перепись населения будет проведена в 2010 г., но она была отложена до 2020 г. Но и в 2020 г. перепись населения не состоялась, а была перенесена на 2023 г. В 2022 г. стало очевидным, что и эта перепись проведена не будет, во всяком случае, в границах Украины на 2014 г. Тем не менее, существует потребность в оценке как численности населения Украины, так и её национального состава для понимания хода демографических и этнолингвистических процессов в течение двух десятилетий, прошедших после последней переписи на её территории.
2

Целью исследования является выявление особенностей динамики наиболее многочисленных этнических и языковых групп на территории Украины в период с 1959 г., а также оценка их численности вплоть до 2021 г.
3

В качестве информационной базы исследования выступают материалы переписей населения, проведённых на Украине в советское время (в 1959, 1970, 1979 и 1989 гг.1) и постсоветский период (перепись населения 2001 г.2). При осуществлении оценки численности этнических групп на 2011 и 2021 гг. была использована статистика Отдела народонаселения ООН3.

 1. Demoskop Weekly. [Электронный ресурс]:URL: >>>> style="text-decoration: underline;"> (дата обращения: 15.06.2022).

2. Всеукраинская перепись населения 2001. Национальный состав населения, гражданство. [Электронныйресурс]: URL: >>>> (датаобращения: 20.01.2021); Population statistics of Eastern Europe & former USSR. [Электронный ресурс]: URL: http://pop-stat.mashke.org/ (датаобращения: 15.06.2022).

3. WPP. United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. World Population Prospects 2019. URL: >>>> (дата обращения: 15.06.2022).
4 Степень изученности проблемы и методика исследования. Несмотря на то, что на территории Украины в постсоветский период была проведена только одна перепись населения, к её результатам было привлечено достаточно пристальное внимание. Её итогам было посвящено много работ, опубликованных как на украинском языке (например, [5; 10; 11; 17] и др.), так и на русском языке (например, [8; 22; 23] и др.). При этом в работах российских авторов чаще всего обращается внимание на положение русских на Украине, их этнической и языковой ассимиляции в постсоветский период (например, [4; 7; 9; 15; 21] и др.). Русскоязычие на территории Украины рассматривается также в контексте вопросов языковой политики в государствах ближнего зарубежья после распада СССР (например, [1–3; 26; 30] и др.).
5

Осуществлённая в данном исследовании оценка численности этнических и лингвистических групп Украины на 2021 г. опирается на методы, представленные в трудах известных отечественных и зарубежных учёных. В изучение этноассимиляционных процессов свой вклад внесли такие отечественные исследователи, как А. Г. Волков [6], А. Ю. Орлов [16; 32], Е. Л. Сороко[20] и др. Также проблематика смешанных браков и этнической идентичности рассматривались в работах зарубежных авторов: А. В. Доана[27], К. М. Уотерс [34], К. Мяги, ван М. Хам, К. Литмаа, Т. Таммару [31], Л. Платта[33] и др. Методика демографического прогнозирования опирается на разработки таких учёных, как Дж. Бонгаартс [24], Х. Бут [25], Д. М. Эдиев [28; 29], Т. Уилсон [35–37], Е. Л. Сороко[18; 19] и др.

views: 319

Readers community rating: votes 0 

1.  Arefiev A. L. (2012), Russian language at the turn of the 20–21 centuries, Moscow, Center for Social Forecasting and Marketing, 482 p. (In Russ.).
2. Arefiev A. L. (2013), Shrinking Russian-speaking, Demoscope Weekly, no. 571–572. (In Russ.). URL: http://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/2013/0571/demoscope571.pdf  (date of access: 25.01.2021).
3. Arutyunova M. A. (2012), Language policy and the status of the Russian language in the USSR and the states of the post-Soviet space, Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seriya 25: Mezhdunarodny`e otnosheniya i mirovaya politika [Bulletin of the Moscow University. Series 25: International Relations and World Politics], no. 1, pp. 155–178. (In Russ.).
4. Biryukova S. N. (2014), Problems of the functioning of the Russian language in Ukraine, Sovremenny`e problemy` gumanitarny`x i obshhestvenny`x nauk [Modern problems of the humanities and social sciences], no. 3, pp. 27–31. (In Russ.).
5. Borisenko V. K. (2007), Ethnic composition of the population of Ukraine, Ukrainian Ethnology, V. K. Borisenko (ed.), Kyiv, pp. 60–69. (in Ukrain.).
6. Volkov A. G. (1989), Ethnically mixed families in the USSR: dynamics and composition, Vestnik statistiki, no. 7, pp. 12–26, no. 8, pp. 8–24. (In Russ.).
7. Gorodyanenko V. G. (2009), The situation of Russians in Ukraine and the problems of their identity, Sotsiologicheskie issledovanija, no. 1 (297), pp. 89–96. (In Russ.).
8. Dzhaman V. A., Dzhaman Ya. V., Mruchkovsky P. V. (2014), Ethnic structure of the population of Ukraine and its dynamics during the formation of state independence, Geografiya v shkole [Geography at school], no. 8, pp. 26–35. (In Russ.).
9. Efimov S. A. (2009), Where did the Russians, or “communicating vessels” of ethno-linguistic self-identification disappear: Ukraine, 1989–2001, History and modernity, no. 1, pp. 177–189. (In Russ.).
10. Krisachenko V. S. (2005), Population dynamics: population, ethnicity and global demise, Kyiv, 368 p. (In Ukrain.).
11. Lozinskiy R. M. (2008), Current situation in Ukraine (suspicious-geographical view), Lviv, 503 p. (In Ukrain.).
12. Manakov A. G., Muravyov A. D. (2022), Cartographic analysis of the dynamics of the number of Belarusians and Ukrainians in Russia from 1959 to 2010, Vestnik Pskovskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya: Estestvennye i fizikomatematicheskie nauki [Bulletin of the Pskov State University. Series “Natural and physical and mathematical sciences”], vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 108–119. (In Russ.).
13. Manakov A. G., Petrova A. A. (2022), Mapping the settlement and population dynamics of the Tatars in the Soviet and post-Soviet times, Vestnik Pskovskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya: Estestvennye i fiziko-matematicheskie nauki [Bulletin of the Pskov State University. Series “Natural and physical and mathematical sciences”], vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 41–52. (In Russ.).
14. Manakov A. G., Suvorkov P. E., Ermolin I. V. (2021), Evaluation of the reproductive potential of ethnic groups in the Baltic countries, Sovremennaya Evropa [Modern Europe], no. 7. P. 27–38. (In Russ.). http://dx.doi.org/10.15211/soveurope720212738. 
15. Mitrofanova I. V., Sushchiy S. Ya. (2017), Russians in Ukraine: geodemographic results of the post-Soviet period and medium-term prospects, Sotsiologicheskie issledovanija, no. 8 (401), pp. 45–58. (In Russ.).  https://doi.org/10.7868/S0132162517080050. 
16. Orlov A. Yu. (2011), Geodemographic studies of ethnoassimilation processes (on the example of the population of the Volga Federal District), Geography and Natural Resources, no. 1, pp. 129–136. (In Russ.).
17. Sklyar V. (2016), “Politicality” of the population of Ukraine and the results of the 1989 and 2001 censuses, Ukrainoznavstvo, no. 1 (58), pp. 136–154. (In Ukrain.).
18. Soroko E. L. (2018), Modeling of the third demographic transition, Materials of the XIX April conference. Session P-11. Demographic processes and development. (In Russ.). URL: https://conf.hse.ru/2018/program/  (date of access: 20.05.2022).
19. Soroko E. L. (2016), Indicators for the description of ethno-demographic processes, XVI April international scientific conference on the problems of economic and social development: in 4 books, book 3, ed. E. G. Yasin, Moscow, High School of Economics Publ., pp. 328–338. (In Russ.).
20. Soroko E. L. (2014), Ethnically mixed married couples in the Russian Federation, Demograficheskoe obozrenie, vol. 1, no. 4, pp. 96–123. (In Russ.).
21. Sushhij S. Ya. (2020), Russian population of the near abroad: geodemographic dynamics of the post-Soviet period, Demograficheskoe obozrenie, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 6–30. (In Russ.). https://doi.org/10.17323/demreview.v7i2.11137. 
22. Tarkhov S. A. (2004), Results of the 2001 Ukrainian census, Fourth Socratic Readings in Geography. Scientific theories and geographical reality (collection of reports), Moscow, Eslan, pp. 144–164. (In Russ.).
23. Khmelko V. E. (2004), Linguo-ethnic structure of Ukraine: regional features and trends of change over the years of independence, Nauchnye zapiski NaUKMA. Sociological sciences, vol. 32, pp. 3–15. (In Russ.).
24. Bongaarts J. (2005), Long-Range Trends in Adult Mortality: Models and Projection Methods, Demography, no. 42 (1), pp. 23–49.
25. Booth H. (2006), Demographic Forecasting: 1980 to 2005, Int. J. of Forecasting, no. 3 (18), pp. 547–581.
26. Cheskin A., Kachuyevski A. (2019), The Russian-speaking populations in the post-Soviet space: language, politics and identity, Europe-Asia Studies, vol. 71, no. 1, pp. 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2018.1529467. 
27. Doane A. W. (1997), Dominant Group Ethnic Identity in the United States: The Role of “Hidden” Ethnicity in Intergroup Relations, The Sociological Quarterly, no. 38(3), pp. 375–397. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1533-8525.1997.tb00483.x. 
28. Ediev D. M. (2007), An approach to improve the consistency of mortality projections obtained by the Lee-Carter method, Eurostat methodologies and working papers. Work session on demographic projections, Bucharest, 10–12 October 2007, Luxembourg, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, pp. 101–115.
29. Ediev D. M. (2008), Extrapolative projections of mortality: towards a more consistent method, part I: the central scenario, Working Paper 3. Vienna Institute of Demography, Austria, no. 3, 50 p. URL: https://www.oeaw.ac.at/fileadmin/subsites/Institute/VID/PDF/Publications/Working_Papers/WP2008_03.pdf. 
30. Ivanchenko V. S., Chimiris Е. S. (2020), Russian language in the Post-Soviet space as a factor of politics, Political Science Issues, vol. 10, no. 3 (42–44), pp. 305–315.
31. Mägi K., van Ham M., Leetmaa K., Tammaru T. (2020), The neighbourhood context and changes in self-reported ethnic identity, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, no 46(1), pp. 277–296. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2018.1547634. 
32. Orlov A. Y. (2009), The Technique of Ethnogeodemographic Research,  Geography and Natural Resources, vol. 30, no. 1, pp. 73–78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gnr.2009.03.014. 
33. Platt L. (2014), Is there assimilation in minority groups’ national, ethnic and religious identity? Ethnic and Racial Studies, no 37(1), pp. 46–70.  https://doi.org/10.1080/01419870.2013.808756. 
34. Waters C. M. (2000), Immigration, intermarriage, and the challenges of measuring racial/ethnic identities, American Journal of Public Health, no. 90 (11), pp. 1735–1737. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.90.11.1735. 
35. Wilson T. (2009), A multistate model for projecting regional populations by Indigenous status: an application to the Northern Territory, Australia, Environment and Planning, no. 41 (1), pp. 230–249. https://doi.org/10.1068/a402. 
36. Wilson T., Barnes T. (2007), Continuing Challenges in Attempting to Measure the Size, and Changing Size, of Australia's Indigenous Population, People and Place, vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 12–21. https://doi.org/2120/10.1080/00049182.2014.986786. 
37. Wilson T. (2016), The future of Australia’s Indigenous Population, 2011–61,  Population Studies, no. 70 (3), pp. 311–326. https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2016.1224372.

Система Orphus

Loading...
Up