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The Economy of Self-Declared Kosovo
 
PIIS013122270014929-2-1
DOI10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-4-58-70
Publication type Article
Status Published
Authors
Elena S. Arlyapova 
Affiliation: Institute of System-Strategic Analysis (ISSA)
Address: Russian Federation, Moscow
Elena Ponomareva
Occupation: Professor of Comparative Politics Department
Affiliation: Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russian Federation
Address: 76 Prospect Vernadskogo, room 3026, Moscow, Russian Federation, 119454.
Journal nameMirovaia ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia
EditionVolume 65 Issue 4
Pages58-70
Abstract

Intensification of the final resolving processes over the Kosovo issue made it necessary to pay closer attention to social and economic features of the self-declared polity, which are often underestimated losing scores in favor of political, not economical, agenda. With emphasis on the most recent data (2015–2020), Kosovo official statistics, international and local organizations, mass media materials, with high involvement of interviews and surveys conducted during working trips to the Balkan region, and long-term observations, this paper is urged to remove this gap and to answer the question of economic independence and viability, directly concerned with the fundamental matter of sovereignty. Despite the thesis on favorable starting conditions in a form of abundance of various natural resources and ready-made industrial base, widely used in public rhetoric during separatist movement, the words have mostly remained just words – no significant structural changes have taken place in Kosovo’s economy since its self-declared independence in 2008. Reports reflect some increase of economic activity since 2015, but in almost all key directions – administrative reform, fundamental rights, fight against corruption and organized crime, regional cooperation development, etc. – there has been a very little progress up to date. Huge informal sector, desperate situation with youth’s unemployment, gender disproportion in the labor and legal fields – these are among the strongest economic challenges and the highest barriers for Kosovo on its way to European integration. In recent years, local economy drivers were state investments into infrastructure and private consumption, which is still mostly based on large transactions from abroad, together with increasing salary rates and lending. Economic diversification goes slowly. Base metals and mineral products dominate – same as during previous years – in regional export of goods, providing slightly less than a half of its entire volume. Excessive reliance on import is another feature of economic development in contemporary Kosovo. List of services and goods providers remains stable for the past decade, led by Germany and Italy, with growing influence of China and Turkey. Some improvement of business climate co-exists with essential economic problems. Kosovo’s economy still highly depends on external incomes and internal trade sector. Local educational system does not match local labor market needs. Financial discipline, efficient distribution of resources, optimization of sectoral interaction, fight against corruption and crime – these tasks remain the ones of high priority and are still in the current economic agenda today, like they were five and 10 years ago. Kosovo’s real investment attractiveness is in question; however, much work has been done in the legal field to speed up and secure the fundraising process. Unresolved problems of property rights and lack of political will to handle these issues hurt investment perspectives and slow down economic development. COVID-2019 brings additional damage to Kosovo’s economy, but its overall results are to be yet evaluated.

KeywordsKosovo, economic structure, investment climate, unemployment, socio-economic development
Publication date11.05.2021
Number of characters43380
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Table of contents

КАЗУС КОСОВО В НАУЧНЫХ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯХ: ИСТОРИОГРАФИЧЕСКИЙ ОБЗОР
ЭКОНОМИКА КОСОВО: ДИНАМИКА И ТЕНДЕНЦИИ
ПРОБЛЕМА ПРАВ СОБСТВЕННОСТИ И ИНВЕСТИЦИЙ
1

КАЗУС КОСОВО В НАУЧНЫХ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯХ: ИСТОРИОГРАФИЧЕСКИЙ ОБЗОР
2 С конца июня 2020 г. косовский вопрос вновь занял важное место в глобальной повестке. С одной стороны, это определено перетягиванием политического “каната” между Вашингтоном и Брюсселем, которые проявили активность в попытке урегулирования давнего балканского спора. В итоге после паузы, связанной с обнародованием 24 июня Специальной прокуратурой Суда по военным преступлениям Армии освобождения Косово обвинений “в преступлениях против человечности и военных преступлениях, включая убийство, насильственное исчезновение людей, преследование и пытки” [1] нескольких косовских граждан, в числе которых президент самопровозглашенной Республики Косово Х. Тачи и экс-спикер косовского парламента К. Весели, Вашингтон все же переиграл ЕС на “косовом поле”. 4 сентября 2020 г. в Белом доме президент Сербии А. Вучич и косовский премьер А. Хоти в присутствии Д. Трампа подписали каждый свою часть “Экономической нормализации” – именно так называется обнародованный документ [2]. Встреча “на троих” вывела переговоры по урегулированию косовского вопроса на новый уровень. Планы развития экономического взаимодействия по линии Белград–Приштина (строительство авто- и ж/д магистралей; развитие малого и среднего бизнеса; создание безвизового пространства между Албанией, Северной Македонией и Сербией и др.) были дополнены рядом политических обязательств, выходящих за рамки региона. Страны обязались признать движение “Хизбалла” террористическим; Сербия согласилась перенести посольство из Тель-Авива в Иерусалим, а Республика Косово обязалась признать государственность Израиля. Помимо политических уступок “в пользу Трампа” Белград согласился на диверсификацию энергоресурсов за счет американского сжиженного газа, что может привести к снижению российского импорта. Кроме того, были зафиксированы обязательства не развивать на своих территориях инфраструктуру сетей 5G (это “привет” китайским компаниям). Таким образом, Белый дом, благодаря активности спецпредставителя по этому вопросу Р. Греннела, добился от сторон конфликта максимально тесного взаимодействия, связав их при этом рядом обязательств мирополитического уровня.
3 С другой стороны, активность внешних игроков по урегулированию косовского вопроса в самой Сербии воспринимается как подготовка к признанию официальным Белградом РК. Неприятие значительной частью сербского общества такой перспективы стало триггером самых масштабных и довольно кровавых (несколько десятков раненых и сотни пострадавших с обеих сторон) после октябрьских событий 2000 г. беспорядков в Сербии. Массовые протесты стали реакцией на итоги парламентских выборов 21 июня 2020 г. и политику победившей Сербской прогрессивной партии, возглавляемой действующим президентом. Для усмирения демонстрантов власти использовали конную полицию и применяли слезоточивый газ. Жесткие действия полиции сбили протестный накал, но запущенный в Вашингтоне процесс “экономической нормализации” ввел сербский социум в режим напряженного ожидания. Ситуация в стране сегодня сравнима с пожаром на болоте: огонь пока не виден, но он разгорается глубоко внутри общества и может в любой момент стать всепоглощающим пламенем.

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