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Space Dimension of the Innovation-Technological Breakthrough
 
PIIS013122270013259-5-1
DOI10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-11-62-73
Publication type Article
Status Published
Authors
Lyudmila V. Pankova 
Occupation: Head of the Department of Military and Economic Security Research
Affiliation: Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO)
Address: 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow 117997, Russian Federation
Olga V. Gusarova
Occupation: Research Associate, the Department of Military and Economic Security Research
Affiliation: Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO)
Address: 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow 117997, Russian Federation
Journal nameMirovaia ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia
EditionVolume 64 Issue 11
Pages62-73
Abstract

The article addresses the technological base development for the exploration and use of outer space over the current decade and the subsequent period. Primary attention is given to the USA, Russia and China. The most important disruptive emerging military and dual-use technologies are highlighted, their impact on strategic stability, national and international security is examined in terms of both opportunities and risks. A cluster of the most important and perspective space technologies is considered. The paper indicates the possibility and necessity of new agreements on exploration and use of outer space, crucial for adapting space activities to new military-strategic, military-political and technological realities against a backdrop of the innovative technological breakthroughs and the digitalization processes development. Under the conditions of the U.S. military-political leaders’ commitment to competition between great powers, special attentions are paid to the increase of the competition complex factor and development of the so-called PEMT-competition (political, economic, military and technological competition). One of its important focuses is the space activity. It is underlined in the perspective survey till 2040 that, in spite of the crisis situation in the Russian space sector at the boundary of the third decade of the 21st century, Russia has a real opportunity to remain in the category of leading space powers. Special case study of the article is the interactions between space development and strategic stability, on the one hand, and information warfare, on the other. The problems of the space systems vulnerability are also noted. The article emphasizes the fundamental nature, importance and necessity of an impending long-term revision of future global space activities, primarily from the perspective of strategic stability. But the necessity of intensive world discussions on space control is also stressed.

Keywordstechnologies, dual-use, digitalization, system launch, security, mega-constellation, vulnerability, deterrence, control, strategic stability
AcknowledgmentThe article has been supported by a grant of the Russian Science Foundation. Project no. 18-18-00463
Received29.12.2020
Publication date29.12.2020
Number of characters42721
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Table of contents

СОВРЕМЕННЫЙ ЭТАП МИРОВОЙ КОСМИЧЕСКОЙ ДЕЯТЕЛЬНОСТИ
ПЕРСПЕКТИВНЫЕ КОСМИЧЕСКИЕ ТЕХНОЛОГИИ И ЗАРОЖДАЮЩИЕСЯ ВОЗМОЖНОСТИ
СТРАТЕГИЧЕСКАЯ СТАБИЛЬНОСТЬ И ИНФОРМАЦИОННАЯ БЕЗОПАСНОСТЬ В КОСМОСЕ
1 Третье десятилетие XXI века, несомненно, будет временем реализации и практического использования результатов инновационно-цифровых прорывов ведущих мировых держав, четко проявившихся с середины 2010-х годов по широкому кругу областей и направлений научно-технической активности, включая космос. Как известно, космическая деятельность (КД) является сферой высоких наукоемких передовых технологий. И что особенно существенно, эти технологии не только двойного назначения (военного и гражданского), но и тройного назначения, так как сюда можно добавить и факт их коммерческого использования. О тройном назначении следует говорить в силу важных и на сегодня еще не определенных различий во взаимодействии военных и гражданских технологий, с одной стороны, военных и коммерческих, с другой.
2 При наращивании инновационно-цифровых прорывов, “ожидаемое расширение технологических возможностей для исследования и использования космического пространства при увеличении круга стран, вовлеченных в эту сферу, росте участия частного сектора в сфере КД требует всесторонней оценки последствий этих явлений в среднесрочной и долгосрочной перспективе”. Так, на наш взгляд, необходимо сосредоточиться на риске “повышения уровня милитаризации космического пространства, что представляет серьезный вызов в условиях определенной степени непредсказуемости технологического развития и зачастую его “разрушительного” характера” [1].
3 В опубликованной в январе 2018 г. американской Национальной оборонной стратегии (National Defense Strategy, NDS) [2] официально была озвучена ориентация на конкуренцию великих держав, в том числе и в военной области. Таким образом, с конца 2010-х годов, согласно официальным документам, фокус американского военно-политического руководства смещается с борьбы против терроризма и противодействия ему на конкуренцию крупнейших держав (прежде всего США, России и Китая), включая сферу космической деятельности [3, 4]. В целом это может вылиться в противостояние великих держав или приблизиться к нему в том числе и в области КД. Факт подписания в декабре 2019 г. Д. Трампом указа о создании нового вида вооруженных сил (нового домена1) – космических, впервые с 1947 г., когда были сформированы военно-воздушные силы США, является тому подтверждением. Следует отметить, что пятый домен (в определенной степени рукотворный) – киберпространство, было признано новым театром военных действий еще в начале текущего столетия, что породило такое понятие, как “кибервооружения” (cyber warfare) и далее, соответственно, “кибербезопасность” [5]. Основная цель космической политики Соединенных Штатов на рубеже третьего десятилетия: не просто присутствие, а доминирование в космосе [6], что, по мнению многих экспертов, сможет поддержать их пошатнувшееся положение самой могущественной державы в мире. 1. Домены, понимаемые в данной работе как вид вооруженных сил, все чаще используются в зарубежной военной литературе и официальных изданиях, хотя доктринально это понятие еще не определено. Однако его использование можно считать состоявшимся, как, в частности, утверждают эксперты Патрик Д. Аллен и Денис П. Гилберт. По их мнению, в частности, домен можно характеризовать как “сферу (среду) влияния, где деятельность, функции и операции предпринимаются для выполнения миссий и контроля над оппонентом в целях достижения желаемых результатов”.

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