American and Chinese Concepts of Utilizing Space Assets for Solving Military and Political Issues

 
PIIS013122270007888-7-1
DOI10.20542/0131-2227-2019-63-12-67-76
Publication type Article
Status Published
Authors
Occupation: Post-Graduate Student, Faculty of World Politics
Affiliation: Lomonosov Moscow State University
Address: 1, Leninskie Gory, Moscow 119234, Russian Federation
Journal nameMirovaia ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia
EditionVolume 63 Issue 12
Pages67-76
Abstract

The article draws upon the assumption that the U.S.-China struggle for global leadership is inevitable. At present, we witness the surge of interest towards the “active phase” of trade wars flaring since President Trump’s taking office. But what is requiring to shed light on is whether the bilateral antagonism may switch to the outer space with 95% of space technologies possessed by the states being dual. Proceeding from this logic, the author examines the extent of reciprocal preparedness towards turning space into a theater of war. The author claims that the space factor has been taken into account by the U.S. military strategists since the last decade of the 20th century, though the more vivid impetus was given by the Commission to Assess United States National Security Space Management and Organization report published in 2001 which revealed insufficient readiness of military and intelligence services to use space for heading off perspective threats. As a result, stepping from pledges to reject any limitations on the fundamental right of a country to operate in and acquire data from space including defense and intelligence-related activities, the United States then came to proclamation of more precise guidelines on how to protect national interests depriving the adversary of potential advantages in space. In due course the issues of “interoperability” of national security systems and their “resilience” came to the fore contributing to better understanding of an impact the cross-domain solutions may have for preventing, countering and sustaining aggression. All in all, space domain mission assurance has become an inalienable part of the U.S. space policy since 2012 already. Amidst the Third Offset Strategy of the United States and Donald Trump’s aspirations for strengthening the American deterrence and warfighting options in space, it is expected that soon we will witness correspondent organizational and planning changes making outer space an area of military operational maneuver. Unlike the U.S., China does not have a space doctrine to contain prescriptions on the military use of space. White papers on space activities are majorly intended to build up the frames of providing national security in a peaceful manner. Meanwhile, the Academy of Military Science of the Chinese People's Liberation Army publishes the guiding thoughts defining the Chinese vision of the future military affairs. It states the combination of soft- and hard-kill techniques to coerce the adversary and achieve space superiority, promotes joint operations implying integration of space operations into the military planning system to enable defensive and offensive activities, whether it be space deterrence or space blockade. In the whole, space is characterized as a “commanding height” applicable in asymmetric warfare and seizing the initiative. At the same time, establishment of Strategic Support Forces responsible inter alia for space activities confirms China’s intention to grant this domain a more active role in providing national security. The author comes to a conclusion that having open and concealed hints at each other in strategic documents, and possessing certain similarities in the vision of the future space activities, both the U.S. and China are strategically prepared to shifting disputes to the space arena.

KeywordsAmerica, China, space strategy, military space politics
Received11.12.2019
Publication date11.12.2019
Number of characters34704
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1

СОПЕРНИКИ ЗА ГЛОБАЛЬНОЕ ЛИДЕРСТВО

2 В последнее время все более популярным становится тезис о том, что именно Соединенные Штаты Америки и Китай будут определять глобальный баланс экономической и военной силы и, таким образом, сам характер международных отношений в XXI в. Такой точки зрения придерживаются как зарубежные, так и отечественные эксперты. Например, Р.Дж. Эллингс, президент американского Национального бюро азиатских исследований, следующим образом охарактеризовал зарождающуюся тенденцию в американо-китайских отношениях: “В обозримой перспективе они (США и КНР. – Прим. авт.) будут обладать крупнейшим потенциалом для формирующего воздействия на азиатские и мировые дела. От их решений будут зависеть ценности, институты, линии развития мировой экономики, глобальное состояние экологии и вопросы войны и мира” [1]. Аналогичного мнения придерживаются видные российские ученые и политические деятели Академик РАН А.А. Кокошин и профессор А.Н. Панов. В монографии “Макроструктурные изменения в системе мировой политики до 2030 г.” они обращают внимание на то, что Соединенные Штаты и Китай в обозримом будущем будут играть “на равных” [2, с. 80, 246]. Это связано с тем, что доминирующее положение США в мировой экономике и политике в последнее десятилетие подвержено эрозии, в то время как КНР стабильно наращивает свою мощь, планомерно активизируя свое внешнеполитическое “я”. Доктор политических наук Я.В. Лексютина дает красноречивое название событиям, которые неизбежно развернутся в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе, называя АТР “авансценой соперничества Китая и США в XXI веке” [3].
3 Исследование наработок Соединенных Штатов и Китая в сфере космической деятельности указывает на то, что прогнозируемое соперничество двух стран распространится не только на вопросы экономического и политического влияния, но и на космическое пространство. Хотя на сегодняшний день в арсенале США имеется 859 действующих спутников, в КНР – 250 [4], именно Китай может похвастаться тем, что уже в 2016 г. догнал Соединенные Штаты (и перегнал Россию) по количеству космических запусков за год [5]1. Нельзя не согласиться с тем, что успехи, достигнутые США в XX в., являются нелегко достижимой целью для Китая, космическая программа которого не раз становилась жертвой внутренних политических пертурбаций [6, pp. 85-92]. Тем не менее КНР идет настолько быстрыми шагами (в освоении программы пилотируемых полетов и исследования объектов Солнечной системы, в реализации проекта собственной орбитальной космической станции2 [7] и всеохватывающей системы навигации, планируя высадку астронавтов на Луну к 2020 г. и отправку миссии на Марс к 2025 г. [8]), что его “дерзновенные” устремления вызывают опасения у американских экспертов. Последние считают, что подобная активность может стать прямым ударом по космической гегемонии США, заложив основу для возвышения Китая в мировом масштабе [9; 10]. 1. В 2016 г. КНР и США осуществили 22, а Россия – 17 запусков.

2. 28 мая 2018 г. Китай заявил о готовности принимать заявки членов ООН на проведение экспериментов на китайской космической станции.

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