Impact of forecasting horizon and uncertainty increase on the methods for competitiveness assessment of new power plants

Kononov, Yu.D.; Kononov, D.Yu.

doi:10.31857/S000233100002361-1

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Izvestiia Rossiiskoi akademii nauk. Energetika

Issue 4

Impact of forecasting horizon and uncertainty increase on the methods for competitiveness assessment of new power plants

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Impact of forecasting horizon and uncertainty increase on the methods for competitiveness assessment of new power plants

PII

S000233100002361-1-1

DOI

10.31857/S000233100002361-1

Publication type

Article

Status

Published

Authors

Yu.D. Kononov

Affiliation: Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Address: Russian Federation, Irkutsk

D.Yu. Kononov

Affiliation: Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Address: Russian Federation, Irkutsk

Journal name

Izvestiia Rossiiskoi akademii nauk. Energetika

Edition

Issue 4

Pages

21-30

Abstract

The paper deals with the problem of integrated assessment of comparative effectiveness of different types of power plants in terms of increasing uncertainty and complication of energy-economy interrelations. The foreign data on variation in technical and economic indicators of new power plants are analyzed. It is important to consider investment risks when comparing the projects and choosing the rational structure of power plants. The methods for their quantitative evaluation are suggested. Expediency of using a system of optimization and stochastic models for integrated assessment of social effectiveness is justified, The composition of models is showed to depend on the forecasting horizon. The results of performed experimental calculations revealed a possible pronounced impact of the options for new capacity commissioning on social effectiveness: nature of initial data uncertainty, values of the discount factor (its risk component) assumed in calculations, level of model aggregation.

Keywords

power plants, comparative effectiveness, forecasting, uncertainty

Received

26.11.2018

Publication date

04.12.2018

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GOST	Kononov Y., Kononov D. Impact of forecasting horizon and uncertainty increase on the methods for competitiveness assessment of new power plants // Izvestiia Rossiiskoi akademii nauk. Energetika – 2018. – Issue 4 C. 21-30 [Electronic resource]. URL: http://ras.jes.su/energetika/s207987840001559-3-1-en (circulation date: 25.04.2024). DOI: 10.31857/S000233100002361-1
MLA	Kononov, Yu.D, Kononov, D.Yu "Impact of forecasting horizon and uncertainty increase on the methods for competitiveness assessment of new power plants." Izvestiia Rossiiskoi akademii nauk. Energetika 4 (2018):21-30. DOI: 10.31857/S000233100002361-1
APA	Kononov Y., Kononov D. (2018). Impact of forecasting horizon and uncertainty increase on the methods for competitiveness assessment of new power plants. Izvestiia Rossiiskoi akademii nauk. Energetika (4), pp.21-30 DOI: 10.31857/S000233100002361-1

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