Modeling the socio-economic development of Russia using big data and data from field experiments

Occupation: Head of the Regional Development Problems Laboratory, Leading Researcher
Affiliation: Federal government budgetary institution of science Market economy institute of RAS
Address: Moscow, Russia, 117418 47, Nakhimovsky prospect

Mikhail Nikolaevich

Occupation: Deputy Director
Affiliation: Market Economy Institute of RAS
Address: Moscow, Russia, 117418 47, Nakhimovsky prospect

Journal name

Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody

Edition

Volume 59 No. 2

Pages

39-53

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to study the prospects of socio-economic development of Russia from the point of view of transition to economic autarky. The study includes a cluster analysis of trends and patterns of socio-economic development of Russia, as well as neighboring countries (CIS). As a comparison base, data were used on countries that have passed (South Korea and Japan) or are passing (Iran) through a full-scale experiment of economic autarky with varying degrees of success. Statistically processed big data reflected in the Countries' Prosperity Index (Legatum Prosperity Index) by the end of 2021 were used as the information base of the study. The study also conducted a simulation of the socio-economic development of Russia, taking into account the accumulated potential, based on a taxonomic method related to the group of economic and mathematical methods of decision-making on a set of attributes (Multiple Attribute Decision Making, MADM). The results of the study show that Russia does not have the necessary development potential to switch to successful models of economic autarky, which were implemented in South Korea and Japan at the time. Russia is capable of further implementing an inertial model of socio-economic development, and is also capable of transitioning to an economic autarky of the Iranian type. The same conclusion applies equally to the countries of the near abroad (CIS). The results obtained can be used as an information base for decision-making in the field of public administration and regulation of socio-economic and socio-political processes.

Keywords

economy, society, institutions, development, socio-economic models, modeling, economic autarky, economic structure

Acknowledgment

The article was prepared within the framework of the state task of the MEI RAS, 2023, subject R&D «Modeling of the processes of ensuring sustainable and balanced socio-economic and spatial development of Russia and neighboring countries in order to form a Large Eurasian partnership»

Received

02.06.2023

Publication date

30.06.2023

Number of characters

40522

Cite

GOST	Usmanov D., Nikolaevich M. Modeling the socio-economic development of Russia using big data and data from field experiments // Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody – 2023. – V. 59. – No. 2 C. 39-53 [Electronic resource]. URL: https://emm.jes.su/S042473880023483-0-1 (circulation date: 29.04.2024). DOI: 10.31857/S042473880023483-0
MLA	Usmanov, Daler, Nikolaevich, Mikhail "Modeling the socio-economic development of Russia using big data and data from field experiments." Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody 59.2 (2023):39-53. DOI: 10.31857/S042473880023483-0
APA	Usmanov D., Nikolaevich M. (2023). Modeling the socio-economic development of Russia using big data and data from field experiments. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody 59(2), pp.39-53 DOI: 10.31857/S042473880023483-0

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