Forecast of anaemia prevalence in the regions of Russia using the agent-based model

Occupation: Associate Professor of the Department of Information Systems
Affiliation:
Orel State University named after I. S. Turgenev
Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences
Address: Russian Federation

Natisha Dukhi

Occupation: Senior Research Specialist
Affiliation: Human Sciences Research Council, South African Republic
Address: South Africa, Cape Town

Rishemjit Kaur

Occupation: Principal Scientist
Affiliation:
Central Scientific Instruments Organization
Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research
Address: India, Chandigarh

Ivan Nevolin

Occupation: Leading Researcher
Affiliation: Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences
Address: Russian Federation, Moscow

Journal name

Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody

Edition

Volume 58 Issue 2

Pages

64-79

Abstract

In the article development of the agent-based model of anemia prevalence in Russia is discussed. The structure of the model is presented, which includes agents-residents, food producers and sales agents. For each actor in the model, algorithms have been developed that determine their interactions. For food producers, their purchases, sales, production process and dynamics of investments in equipment are simulated. Simulation of sales agents includes the assortment formation and product prices, taking into account transport and trade margins. Households form their diet based on their income, composition, traditions and habits. The expected dynamics of anemia is modeled depending on the quality of the received food and the current stage of the disease. The article also discusses program realization and information support of the model, the user interface is presented. Three scenarios of the dynamics of the socio-economic environment of the model are formalized, taking into account epidemiological and external economic risks. A series of calculations was carried out to predict the dynamics of anemia prevalence under conditions of the developed scenarios. A program of subsidizing low-income families was proposed and its influence on availability of a balanced diet and anemia prevalence among Russian residents was studied.

Keywords

agent-based modeling, anemia, nutrition, recommended daily allowance

Acknowledgment

The reported study was funded by RFBR, Department of Science and Technology (India) and National Research Foundation (South Africa) according to the research project № 19-57-80003.

Received

25.01.2022

Publication date

18.06.2022

Number of characters

37235

Cite

GOST	Mashkova A., Dukhi N., Kaur R., Nevolin I. Forecast of anaemia prevalence in the regions of Russia using the agent-based model // Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody – 2022. – V. 58. – Issue 2 C. 64-79 [Electronic resource]. URL: https://emm.jes.su/S042473880018351-5-1 (circulation date: 28.04.2024). DOI: 10.31857/S042473880018351-5
MLA	Mashkova, Aleksandra, Dukhi, Natisha, Kaur, Rishemjit, Nevolin, Ivan "Forecast of anaemia prevalence in the regions of Russia using the agent-based model." Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody 58.2 (2022):64-79. DOI: 10.31857/S042473880018351-5
APA	Mashkova A., Dukhi N., Kaur R., Nevolin I. (2022). Forecast of anaemia prevalence in the regions of Russia using the agent-based model. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody 58(2), pp.64-79 DOI: 10.31857/S042473880018351-5

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