Notes on the principles of construction of economic indicators forecast models (on example forecast system ProRosEc)

The technology for developing systems of joint equations for constructing forecast models of economic indicators is proposed. The results of a review of publications on this issue allow us to conclude that there is a certain gap between expert estimates of the values of economic indicators for the coming date and formal forecast models are presented. To fill this gap, it is proposed to expertly evaluate not the values of the predicted indicator, but the values of the regression coefficients in formal forecast models. In particular, in the case when the estimates of the parameters of the regression equations calculated by the least square method are incorrect from a theoretical point of view. It is proposed to obtain expert estimates of these coefficients using a visual analysis of the relationship between the dynamics of the model and the simulated indicator while minimizing the residual variance in parallel. Some other issues related to the technology of constructing systems under consideration, and, in particular, the problem of constructing a forecast balanced by the main indicators, are also addressed. The proposed technology is applied to the Russian economy model implemented in the “ProRosEc” software package, which consists of more than 200 joint econometric equations.

Keywords

time series, mathematical models, statistical estimates, forecasting of economic processes, software systems, expert estimates.

Received

15.04.2020

Publication date

11.06.2020

Number of characters

35201

Cite

GOST	Andrukovich P. Notes on the principles of construction of economic indicators forecast models (on example forecast system «ProRosEc») // Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody – 2020. – V. 56. – Issue 2 C. 66-76 [Electronic resource]. URL: https://emm.jes.su/S042473880009230-2-1 (circulation date: 20.04.2024). DOI: 10.31857/S042473880009230-2
MLA	Andrukovich, Petr "Notes on the principles of construction of economic indicators forecast models (on example forecast system «ProRosEc»)." Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody 56.2 (2020):66-76. DOI: 10.31857/S042473880009230-2
APA	Andrukovich P. (2020). Notes on the principles of construction of economic indicators forecast models (on example forecast system «ProRosEc»). Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody 56(2), pp.66-76 DOI: 10.31857/S042473880009230-2

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