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Model of Determining the Moment of the Order of Delivery with the Account of Uncertainty of Delivery Time
 
PIIS042473880004685-2-1
DOI10.31857/S042473880004685-2
Publication type Article
Status Published
Authors
Oleg Kosorukov 
Occupation: Professor
Affiliation: The Graduate School of Management and Innovation, Lomonosov Moscow State University
Address: Moscow, Russian Federation
Sergei Maslov
Occupation: Commercial Director
Affiliation: «Prodimex» Ltd.
Address: Russian Federation
Natalya Semenova
Affiliation: Plekhanov Russian University of Economics
Address: Russian Federation
Journal nameEkonomika i matematicheskie metody
EditionVolume 55 Issue 2
Pages130-139
Abstract

In Russia, most of the trading enterprises in the management of commodity stocks are guided by the average demand and the duration of supply, and only some large companies use the modeling of logistics processes, which increases the efficiency and effectiveness of their operations, reducing the costs of storage and deficit. The article presents a model of inventory management, namely, determining the optimal delivery order moment, taking into account the uncertainty of delivery time. As a criterion of efficiency, a criterion for minimizing integral costs is considered, taking into account the costs of surplus stocks and the costs of the lack of goods in the warehouse. As a law of distribution of a random volume of demand, a triangular distribution is considered, as one of the most applicable under conditions of insufficient statistical data. The considered economic-mathematical model allows to optimize the moment of delivery provided that risks are minimized, based on the statistical data on delivery time for the previous period, or if such data are not available to use expert estimates. These data are sufficient for constructing the probability distribution for a random quantity of demand. The novelty of the work lies in the fact that the model presented in the article allows, with a random delivery time, represented by a triangular distribution, using analytical methods to determine the day of ordering the delivery of a new batch of goods in a certain volume, provided that risks are minimized.

Keywordsinventory management, cost minimization, delivery time, uncertainty of delivery order moment, triangular distribution
Received25.05.2019
Publication date25.05.2019
Number of characters12450
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