The forecast of demographic situation in Russia up to 2033

 
PIIS042473880003321-2-1
DOI10.31857/S042473880003321-2
Publication type Article
Status Published
Authors
Occupation: leading researcher
Affiliation: ISA FRC CSC RAS
Address: Russian Federation, Moscow
Occupation: leading researcher
Affiliation: International Institute P. Sorokin — N. Kondratiev
Address: Russian Federation, Moscow
Journal nameEkonomika i matematicheskie metody
EditionVolume 54 Issue 4
Pages71-87
Abstract

The brief description of the demographic model and modeling technique elaborated and used by the authors for investigating the trends of demographic development in Russia are given. The demographic model and the modeling technique are based on the using auto regression and regression analysis of time series for demographic indicators, simulation modeling and confidence intervals for model values of demographic indicators with taking into account a priori information and constraints on the model parameters and modeling process. On the basis of confidence intervals there were generated three scenarios of Russia’s demographic development: Low, Medium and High. On the time period 2013–2033 the demographic model allows for the scenario variants to calculate one-year age structures for men and women, one-year age fertility, mortality and migration increase rates and all necessary for analysis integral demographic indicators. The results of the multivariate analysis of the demographic processes in Russia on time period 2013–2033 are described. In particular according to these results it was found that fertility and natural increase of the population will decrease generally because of the influence of demographic wave; the total population will increase generally due to the increase of migration; the population will grow old; the coefficient of demographic load on the population will grow at decreasing rate.

Keywordsdemographic model, fertility, mortality, migration, age structures, modeling, forecast, demographic indicators, age fertility rates, age mortality rates, age net migration rates
AcknowledgmentThis article was written with the financial support of the Russian Humanitarian Scientific Foundation (project 16-02-00229) “Socio-demographic evolution of Russia and other BRICS countries: patterns, trends and prospects”.
Publication date15.01.2019
Cite   Download pdf To download PDF you should sign in
Размещенный ниже текст является ознакомительной версией и может не соответствовать печатной

views: 489

Readers community rating: votes 0

1. Carter L., Lee R.D. (1992). Modeling and Forecasting U.S. Mortality: Differentials in Life Expectancy by Sex. International Journal of Forecasting 8, 3, 393–412.

2. Golubkov V.V., Krugliakv C.V. (2010). Construction of the Prognostic Two-Parametric Age Fertility Model by Russian Data. In: “Dynamics of heterogeneous systems”. Proceedings ISA RAN, 53, 14, 2010, 87–99.

3. Heligman L., Pollard J.H. (1980). The Age Pattern of Mortality. Journal of the Institute of Actuaries, 107, 49–75.

4. Keilman N., Pham D.Q. (2000). Predictive Intervals for Age-Specific Fertility. European Journal of Population, 16, 41–66.

5. Rogers A. (1975). Introduction to Multiregional Mathematical Demography. N.Y.: Wiley.

6. Schoen R. (1988). Modeling Multigroup Populations. N.Y., L.: Plenum Press.

7. Vishnevsky A.G. (2012). Demographic Breakthrough or Circling? Part 1. Demoskop Weekly, 533–534, 1–29.

Система Orphus

Loading...
Up