Urbanization and Revolutions: a Quantitative Analysis

Occupation: Research, Associate Researcher at the International Laboratory of Demography and Human Capital; Laboratory for Monitoring the Risks of Socio-Political Destabilization
Affiliation:
Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
National Research University “Higher School of Economics”
Address: Moscow, Russia

Elijah A. Sumernikov

Occupation: Research Intern, Laboratory for Monitoring the Risks of Socio-Political Destabilization
Affiliation: National Research University “Higher School of Economics”
Address: Moscow, Russia

Leonid Grinin

Occupation: Leading Researcher; Chief Researcher, Laboratory for Monitoring the Risks of Socio-Political Destabilization
Affiliation:
Institute of Oriental Studies of RAS
National Research University Higher School of Economics
Address: Moscow, Russia

Andrey Korotayev

Occupation: Chief Researcher; Head of the Laboratory for Monitoring the Risks of Socio-Political Destabilization
Affiliation:
Institute for African Studies of RAS
National Research University “Higher School of Economics”
Address: Moscow, Russia

Journal name

Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya

Edition

Issue 10

Pages

85-95

Abstract

Developing countries are now at a stage of accelerated modernization and its crucial part – the urbanization transition. In classical papers on this topic, authors mentioned that revolutions are an integral part of modernization. In this article authors present a study of how urbanization affects the risks of different revolutionary events – armed and unarmed. By exploiting cross-national data from 1950 to 2019 and analyzing 459 revolutionary events from NAVCO database, authors conclude that there is a strong and negative correlation between urbanization and the risks of armed uprisings. Meanwhile, the risks of unarmed revolutions behave curvilinearily: as urbanization increases, the risks of the unarmed uprisings increase, but begin to fall when the country is in the final stage of the urbanization transition. Thus, we are dealing with a pronounced curvilinear (inverted U-shaped) relationship between urbanization and the risks of unarmed revolutionary destabilization.

Keywords

revolutions, urbanization, modernization, armed revolutions, unarmed revolutions, cross-national studies

Acknowledgment

The research was conducted as part of the HSE Basic Research Program in 2022 with the support of the RSF, Project No. 18-18-00254.

Received

13.12.2022

Publication date

14.12.2022

Number of characters

22717

Cite

GOST	Ustyzhanin V., Sumernikov E., Grinin L., Korotayev A. Urbanization and Revolutions: a Quantitative Analysis // Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya – 2022. – Issue 10 C. 85-95 [Electronic resource]. URL: http://ras.jes.su/socis/s013216250023601-4-1-en (circulation date: 07.12.2023). DOI: 10.31857/S013216250018478-8
MLA	Ustyzhanin, Vadim V, Sumernikov, Elijah A, Grinin, Leonid, Korotayev, Andrey "Urbanization and Revolutions: a Quantitative Analysis." Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya 10 (2022):85-95. DOI: 10.31857/S013216250018478-8
APA	Ustyzhanin V., Sumernikov E., Grinin L., Korotayev A. (2022). Urbanization and Revolutions: a Quantitative Analysis. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya (10), pp.85-95 DOI: 10.31857/S013216250018478-8

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