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Territorial features of demographic development in Poland under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic
 
Код статьиS221979310013636-2-1
DOI10.37490/S221979310013636-2
Тип публикации Статья
Статус публикации Опубликовано
Авторы
Мартынов Василий Львович 
Должность: Professor
Аффилиация: Herzen Russian State Pedagogical University
Адрес: Russian Federation, Sankt Petersburg
Сазонова Ирина Евгеньевна
Должность: Associate Professor
Аффилиация: Herzen Russian State Pedagogical University
Адрес: Russian Federation, St.Petersburg
Название журналаПсковский регионологический журнал
ВыпускВыпуск 1 (45)
Страницы37-45
Аннотация

The relevance of the article is determined by the fact that the COVID-19 pandemic has had an impact on all areas of human activity, but its territorial differences are not sufficiently studied. The aim of the study is to identify these differences in Poland. The scientific novelty lies in the identification of the main directions of transformation of the territorial structure of the population of Poland in 2015-2020. The research methodology is a combination of statistical and analytical methods. The practical significance of the study is determined by the fact that its results can be useful in analyzing and predicting demographic processes both in Poland and in other countries, including Russia. The main conclusion is to identify the relationship between the increase in the death rate during the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic and geographical location of the territory.

Ключевые словаPoland, pandemic, COVID-19, demography, voivodeships, population, mortality, economic and geographical location
Получено19.05.2021
Дата публикации19.05.2021
Кол-во символов18989
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1 Introduction. 2020 in the “developed” part of the world passed under the “sign” of the COVID-19 pandemic. Both the pandemic itself and the measures aimed at overcoming it have had a significant impact on both the development of society and the life of every person. The final results of the impact of this pandemic can only be summed up when it finally ends. But some of the consequences can be assessed already now, when 2020 has already ended.
2 The purpose of the article is to identify the spatial characteristics of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the demographic development of Poland and the factors that determine it.
3 The state of knowledge of the problem. The problems associated with the spread of COVID-19 in different countries of the world have already been repeatedly considered in the scientific literature (see, e. g., [8]). However, not all the facts regarding the pandemic and its consequences turned out to be reliable, which was also the subject of scientific publications (see, e. g., [5]).
4 In the national scientific literature, the problems of the impact of the pandemic on globalization were considered [2], attempts were made to determine the contours of the world that will form after the pandemic [3], and the impact of the pandemic on the Russian economy was assessed [1].
5 In Poland during 2020 and early 2021. a significant number of scientific articles have been published on the impact of the pandemic on various aspects of the life of Polish society. For example, the impact of the pandemic and fear of it on the “mental state” of the inhabitants of Poland [7], the peculiarities of the impact of the pandemic on the psychological state of Poles [9], the impact of the pandemic on the transport mobility of the Polish population [10], religiosity [4] and even for the production of steel in Poland [6]. However, research on changes in the demographic situation in various states, including Poland, and at different spatial levels, under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic, has not yet been carried out enough.
6 Research results. Poland was one of those states where the COVID-19 pandemic was taken as seriously as possible. The Polish government adopted a number of prohibitive measures, which were evaluated in different ways by the population of Poland. By the fall of 2020, society's fatigue from various restrictions, including “COVID” ones, resulted in numerous demonstrations and manifestations, the formal reason for which was the de facto ban on abortion, adopted by the Supreme Court of the Republic of Poland. This ban was quickly lifted, but this did not reduce the intensity of passions in society, since the main reason for the protest was, as can be assumed, not at all in abortion, but in the numerous restrictive measures associated with the pandemic.
7 The first thing to consider when examining the impact of a pandemic is demographic indicators. The first indicator that makes sense to consider is the change in population by voivodeship for 2020 and the years preceding it in order to identify how strong the impact of the pandemic was on the population in different parts of Poland. For greater reliability, information should be analyzed over several years so that it is possible to understand which trends are the cause of the pandemic, and which are “natural” causes. So, for example, it is obvious that for all countries affected by the “baby boom” after World War II, within the forecasted future, an increase in mortality will be found, and sometimes quite sharp – as sharp as the increase in the birth rate in the first post-war years. Information on changes in the population by voivodeship is given in Table 1.
8 Table 1 Number of population by voivodeships in Poland in 2015 and 2020*
Voivodeships 2015 2020
1 2 1 2
Poland 38437.2 100 38354.2 99.93
Warmian-Mazusurian 1439.7 100 1420.5 99.85
Greater Poland 3475.3 100 3500.4 100.04
West Pomeranian 1710.5 100 1693.2 99.82
Kuyavian-Pomeranian 2086.2 100 2069.3 99.85
Łódź 2493.6 100 2448.7 99.75
Lublin 2139.3 100 2103.3 99.76
Lubusz 1018.1 100 1010.2 99.86
Masowian 5349.1 100 5428.0 100.09
Lesser Poland 3372.6 100 3413.9 100.09
Lower Silesian 2904.2 100 2898.5 99.94
Opole 996.0 100 980.7 99.80
Podkarpackie 2127.7 100 2125.9 99.94
Podlaskie 1188.8 100 1176.6 99.85
Pomeranian 2307.7 100 2346.7 100.12
Silesian 4570.8 100 4508.1 99.79
Świętokrzyskie 1257.1 100 1230.0 99.68
*For each voivodeship: 1 is thsd. people, 2 is a percentage to the previous year. Data in 2015 is on December 31st, in 2020 г. is on June 30th (compiled and calculated according to [1]). 		1. Baza demografia. Wyniki badań bieżących. URL: >>>> (date of the application February 1st, 2020).
9 There are no dramatic changes in the population of both Poland and its voivodeships. Where the population was declining earlier, it continued to decline. Where it grew, it continues to grow. The slowdown in population growth rates for demographically prosperous voivodships (Masovian, Greater Poland, Pomeranian) can be associated rather with the forced decrease in the migration activity of the Polish population caused by quarantine restrictions, rather than with the direct consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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