Seismic Hazard to Istanbul Metropolitan Area: Possible Opportunities

Data on the long-term forecast of the strong earthquake in the north of the Sea of Marmara, near the megalopolis of Istanbul are discussed. In 2016 in Turkey the forecast of a destructive earthquake near Istanbul within the next 20–30 years was officially announced. This forecast was based on the results of studying of regional geodynamics and the analysis of data on speeds of lateral shifts in GPS network for the last 20 years. This work presents the alternate localization of the future seismic focus according to the selection of an additional northern alongshore fault, processing primary data on destructive earthquakes in last centuries and taking into account the revealed irregularity in distribution of the modern lateral tectonic movements in different parts of the basin of the Marmara Sea. Possible consequences of the future event for the megalopolis of Istanbul are discussed.

Keywords

forecast of earthquakes, North Anatolian Fault, migration of the seismic focuses, historical earthquakes, Sea of Marmara, Istanbul, GPS measurements

Received

18.10.2018

Publication date

18.10.2018

Number of characters

884

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GOST	Nikonov A. Seismic Hazard to Istanbul Metropolitan Area: Possible Opportunities // Priroda – 2018. – Issue №10 C. 58-64 [Electronic resource]. URL: http://ras.jes.su/priroda/s207987840000693-1-1-en (circulation date: 26.04.2024). DOI: 10.31857/S0032874X0001451-5
MLA	Nikonov, A. "Seismic Hazard to Istanbul Metropolitan Area: Possible Opportunities." Priroda 10 (2018):58-64. DOI: 10.31857/S0032874X0001451-5
APA	Nikonov A. (2018). Seismic Hazard to Istanbul Metropolitan Area: Possible Opportunities. Priroda (10), pp.58-64 DOI: 10.31857/S0032874X0001451-5

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