Problems and Prospects for the DPRK’s Development: Forecasting Model-2021

Occupation: Leading Research Fellow, Korean Studies Center
Affiliation: Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Address: Российская Федерация, Москва

Liudmila Zakharova

Occupation: Academic Secretary
Affiliation: Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Address: Russian Federation, Moscow

Journal name

Problemy Dalnego Vostoka

Edition

Issue 4

Pages

134-147

Abstract

Since the 1990s, there have been many publications predicting an imminent "collapse of the North Korean regime" or a shift of the country’s political vector. However, this has not happened so far, and the DPRK’s political regime continues to exist. What leads to such chronically unrealistic forecasts for North Korea, and what are alternative options for the future of this country in the short and medium term?

Revising a number of unfulfilled predictions, the authors try to explain the reason for these failures. They are usually closely related to an ideological framework, lack of information and dependence on certain sources, which leads to an underestimation of the DPRK's capabilities and misinterpretation of data, when any event is seen as a sign of the regime’s imminent collapse. Using the theoretical approaches of G. Tallok and V.I. Lenin, the article identifies the main types of threats to the current political regime (external invasion, a coup within the elite, economic collapse, mass protests), as well as the likelihood of their implementation under the current policies of the DPRK leadership.

The authors describe several development scenarios based on an analysis of factors that can affect the situation in North Korea in the short and medium term. Maintaining the status quo stands out in the first place in terms of probability. Less likely scenarios include “sinofication” due to Beijing's growing influence on Pyongyang, military escalation leading to an armed conflict on the Korean Peninsula, political and economic crisis.

Keywords

North Korea, domestic policies of the DPRK, North Korean economy, Kim Jong-un, scenario forecasting

Received

20.04.2021

Publication date

20.08.2021

Number of characters

40521

Cite

GOST	Asmolov K., Zakharova L. Problems and Prospects for the DPRK’s Development: Forecasting Model-2021 // Problemy Dalnego Vostoka – 2021. – Issue 4 C. 134-147 [Electronic resource]. URL: https://pdv.jes.su/S013128120016161-8-1 (circulation date: 27.04.2025). DOI: 10.31857/S013128120016161-8
MLA	Asmolov, Konstantin, Zakharova, Liudmila "Problems and Prospects for the DPRK’s Development: Forecasting Model-2021." Problemy Dalnego Vostoka 4 (2021):134-147. DOI: 10.31857/S013128120016161-8
APA	Asmolov K., Zakharova L. (2021). Problems and Prospects for the DPRK’s Development: Forecasting Model-2021. Problemy Dalnego Vostoka (4), pp.134-147 DOI: 10.31857/S013128120016161-8

100 rub.

When subscribing to an article or issue, the user can download PDF, evaluate the publication or contact the author. Need to register.

Number of purchasers: 0, views: 1174

Readers community rating: votes 0

1. Choi, Ji Young. The North Korean Economy based on the Market Price and FX Rate // 2020/2021 the DPRK Economic Outlook. Ed. by Suk Lee. Korea Development Institute.

2. Dukalskis А. North Korea’s Shadow Economy: A Force for Authoritarian Resilience or Corrosion? // Europe-Asia Studies, 2016, 68:3.

3. Dukalskis A., Joo Hyung-Min. Everyday Authoritarianism in North Korea // Europe-Asia Studies, 2021, 73:2. DOI: 10.1080/09668136.2020.1840517.

4. Eberstadt N. The End of North Korea. AEI Press, 1999.

5. FAO and WFP, 2019. FAO/WFP Joint Rapid Food Security Assessment  Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Bangkok. URL: http://www.fao.org/emergencies/resources/documents/resources-detail/en/c/1192517/ (accessed: 28.06.2021).

6. Future of North Korea. Expert Survey Report. July 2014. Ilmin International Relations Institute. URL: https://www.ncnk.org/resources/publications/IIRI_Expert_Survey_Report_-Eng.pdf (accessed: 08.05.2021).

7. Lenin V.I. Detskaja bolezn' «levizny» v kommunizme (The childhood disease of "leftism" in communism) // Lenin V. The complete collection of works. Vol. 41. (In Russ.).

8. Haggard S., Noland M. Hard Target: Sanctions, Inducements, and the Case of North Korea. Stanford, California: Stanford University Press, 2017.

9. Strategicheskij global'nyj prognoz 2030 (Strategic Global Forecast 2030). Rasshirennyj variant. Pod red. ak. A.A. Dynkina. M.: Magistr, 2011. (In Russ.).

10. Tullock, Gordon. Autocracy. Dordrecht: Springer Media, 1987.

11. Svolik, Milan. Power Sharing and Leadership Dynamics in Authoritarian Regimes. // American Journal of Political Science 53, no. 2 (2009).

12. Tat Yan Kong. How China views North Korea’s readiness to reform and its influence on China’s North Korea policy in the post-Cold War era. // The Pacific Review, 2021, 34:1,85–112, DOI: 10.1080/09512748.2019.1651384.

13. Yang Moon-Soo. The Economic Reform of North Korea in the Kim Jong Un Era: Status & Evaluation. Korea Development Institute. Working Paper. June 2021.

14. 2016북한대외무역동향 : (Trends of North Korean Foreign Trade in 2016). KOTRA자료 18–038, 2017. (In Korean).