Challenges of Maintaining the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

 
PIIS013122270009006-7-1
DOI10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-3-29-35
Publication type Article
Status Published
Authors
Occupation: Junior Researcher, Center for International Security
Affiliation: Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO)
Address: 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow 117997, Russian Federation
Journal nameMirovaia ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia
EditionVolume 64 Issue 3
Pages29-35
Abstract

Today, half a century after its inception, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) faces a plethora of old and new challenges: first, the NTP states parties are now starting to walk away from their obligations under the Treaty; second, the Treaty’s articles are receiving multiple interpretations, which creates dangerous discrepancies; and, finally, non-proliferation regimes and norms are being undermined by military conflicts and political tensions.Divisions among the states parties over the way forward on disarmament, non-proliferation and peaceful uses of nuclear energy continue to grow amid the current tense international environment. Diplomacy, negotiations and dialogue take second place to platitudinous postulations and constant bickering. There is no consensus among the NPT states parties concerning the pathway for substantive nuclear disarmament. Nuclear weapons and ballistic missile program of the DPRK continues to pose both regional and global proliferation threat. The future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and Iran’s nuclear program is hanging in the air. At issue is the failure to make any tangible progress towards establishing a zone free of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East, which effectively became the main “apple of discord” during the previous review conference. There are strong chances that next year it will again become a highly contentious issue and lead the 2020 NPT Review Conference to the same fate that befall its predecessor. There is growing anxiety about the outcome of this crucial event. These challenges are as daunting as they are urgent and require immediate and concerted response from all the states parties to the NPT.Given the currently challenging international environment and the crisis in arms control regime, if two consecutive review conferences – one of which also marks the Treaty’s half century anniversary – fail to agree on an outcome document, it could have grave consequences for the NPT and the entire nuclear non-proliferation regime.

KeywordsTreaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, NPT Review Conference, nuclear disarmament, Middle East Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone (MEWMDFZ), Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran's nuclear program
Received29.03.2020
Publication date29.03.2020
Number of characters21291
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1 В марте 2020 г. исполняется 50 лет со вступления в силу Договора о нераспространении ядерного оружия (ДНЯО) – важнейшего инструмента борьбы с ядерной угрозой и одного из столпов международной безопасности. Его сохранение и укрепление стало еще более существенным в свете денонсации Договора по ракетам средней и меньшей дальности (ДРСМД), неопределенности с продлением срока действия Договора о сокращении и ограничении стратегических наступательных вооружений (ДСНВ-3) и, тем более, с заключением следующего договора СНВ, а также ввиду возникших проблем с Договором о всеобъемлющем запрещении ядерных испытаний (ДВЗЯИ).
2 На протяжении полувека ДНЯО и созданный на его основе международный режим нераспространения ядерного оружия совершенствовался и расширялся, обрастая новыми режимами, институтами и правовыми нормами. В 1960-е годы, в процессе согласования Договора, ожидалось, что уже к 1975 г. в мире будет насчитываться от 15 до 20 ядерных государств. Но, вопреки всем прогнозам, на сегодняшний день только девять стран приобрели ядерное оружие.
3 Основной механизм, обеспечивающий мониторинг режима ядерного нераспространения и его развитие, – обзорный процесс, состоящий из пятилетних циклов. Каждый цикл заканчивается проведением Обзорной конференции, а начиная с 1995 г. он также включает в себя работу Подготовительного комитета. Этот комитет собирается во второй (Вена), третий (Женева) и четвертый (Нью-Йорк) год цикла для подготовки очередной конференции.
4 Основной задачей Обзорных конференций является выработка заключительного документа. Документ считается принятым, если в ходе голосования в последний день конференции все страны – участницы ДНЯО единогласно за него проголосуют (как это произошло в 1975, 1985, 2000 и 2010 гг.) [1]. Конференция 1995 г. выделяется из числа этих форумов: вместо заключительного документа ее итогом стали четыре важных решения, одно из которых – бессрочное продление Договора1. Решение о продлении было принято в соответствии со ст. X.2 Договора и имело место спустя 25 лет после вступления в силу ДНЯО в 1970 г. 1. Решение о бессрочном продления Договора, об укреплении его обзорного процесса, о принципах и целях ядерного нераспространения и разоружения и Резолюция по Ближнему Востоку NPT/CONF.1995/32 (Part I), Annex.
5 В преддверии Обзорной конференции 2020 г. все чаще прогнозируется провал принятия заключительного документа. В прошлом эти мероприятия заканчивались неудачей почти также часто, как и успехом. Провальными принято считать Обзорные конференции 1980, 1990, 2005 и 2015 гг.
6 Уровень давления, которое испытывают на себе ДНЯО и основанный на нем режим нераспространения ядерного оружия, сегодня значительно выше, чем когда-либо раньше. Имеет место отступление государств от ранее взятых обязательств, статьи Договора размываются противоречивыми трактовками, а режимы и нормы подрываются международными конфликтами и военно-политической непредсказуемостью.
7 Углубляются противоречия между ядерными и неядерными государствами по вопросам, связанным с ДНЯО и режимом ядерного нераспространения, усиливаются разногласия и внутри этих страновых группировок. Основными предметами разногласий являются: тема ядерного разоружения; план создания на Ближнем Востоке зоны, свободной от оружия массового уничтожения (ЗСОМУ); предотвращение регионального ядерного распространения. Эти противоречия усугубляются распадом ключевых соглашений контроля над ядерными вооружениями, лежащих в основе ДНЯО.

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