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Chinese Discussions about Relations with the U.S. and the Trade War
 
PIIS013122270007205-6-1
DOI10.20542/0131-2227-2019-63-10-17-29
Publication type Article
Status Published
Authors
Alexandr V. Lomanov 
Occupation: Principal Researcher
Affiliation: Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO)
Address: 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation
Journal nameMirovaia ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia
EditionVolume 63 Issue 10
Pages17-29
Abstract

The article analyzes the debates of Chinese researchers on the relations with the United States at the backstage of the “trade war”. The statements of the Chinese leadership about the continuation of the “period of historical chances” for national development are combined with calls to be prepared for contingencies and to pay extra attention to new trends in international environment that do not correspond with normative theses about irreversible tendencies of multipolarity, economic globalization and impossibility of a large-scale war. “Trade war” has become an incentive for understanding the reasons of deterioration in bilateral relations and searching for new sources of their stability. The most of Chinese foreign policy analysts believe that it is possible to extend the “period of historical chances” even in time of such a deterioration. However, the standard set of recommendations from Chinese experts (deepening of market reforms, participation in the reform of global governance and world order, strengthening national power while expanding cooperation with other countries for the sake of construction of a “new type of international relations”) have not offered a recipe how to prevent further worsening of Chinese-American relations. Broad positive recommendations to develop dialogue and avoid serious conflicts are useless at strategic junctures when the opposite side speaks the language of ultimatums. Chinese mainstream habitually emphasizes that cooperation between Beijing and Washington is beneficial to both countries and for the world, while no one gains from the confrontation. The proposals to the American side to “get rid of the zero-sum game mentality”, “take a more positive look at the development of China”, “constantly expand the space and prospects for bilateral win” were not able to curb constantly rising tensions in bilateral relations. Nevertheless, in a number of academic publications one can find optimistic statements that in the next couple of years, Donald Trump will surely soften the U.S. policy towards China. Realist point of view recognizes the possibility of intensifying rivalry between Beijing and Washington. Chinese researchers are increasingly turning to the analysis of the interaction of the two countries as “competition together with cooperation” or “struggle without destruction” (“dou er bu po”). The intention to establish an atmosphere of “healthy competition” in bilateral relations may not be feasible, since China does not have tools to convince Trump administration to abandon the pursuit of absolute superiority. After the bilateral trade lost its function as a stabilizer of Sino-American relations, experts felt the necessity to find new sources of stability. The main task is not focused on restoring the previous levels of cooperation. It is more important to recognize the differences between the two countries and create new effective mechanisms for conflict management by clearly defining “red lines” and communicating with other party to clarify interests and strategic intentions. In reliance on research publications in Chinese academic journals, the article demonstrates that optimistic judgments about the continual importance and strength of China-U.S. relations gradually gave way to realistic estimates based on the recognition of fundamental changes in this sphere. More notable became the efforts of Chinese researchers in comparative analysis of national strategies and consideration of alternative scenarios for further development of relations with the United States.

KeywordsXi Jinping, foreign policy, trade and economic cooperation, interaction strategy
Received14.10.2019
Publication date06.11.2019
Number of characters51555
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Table of contents

МЕЖДУ ВОЗМОЖНОСТЯМИ И РИСКАМИ
В 40 ЛЕТ НЕ ИСПЫТЫВАТЬ СОМНЕНИЙ
БОРЬБА БЕЗ РАЗРУШЕНИЯ
В ПОИСКАХ СТРАТЕГИИ
* * *
1 Торговая война между Китаем и США заставила китайских исследователей обратиться к переосмыслению основ двусторонних отношений и анализу воздействия политики президента Дональда Трампа на будущее развитие взаимодействия. Сложившаяся за долгие годы инерция восприятия китайско-американских отношений как наивысшего приоритета обусловила появление многочисленных призывов приложить все усилия к тому, чтобы обеспечить продолжение сотрудничества с Вашингтоном. Однако попытка реагировать на новую ситуацию со старых позиций быстро продемонстрировала свою ограниченность. Появление серьезных противоречий в отношениях с США заставило китайское экспертное сообщество размышлять о том, что ответ на появление новой, более жесткой американской политики в отношении Китая должен начинаться с переосмысления ситуации и с последующим формированием новых подходов.
2

МЕЖДУ ВОЗМОЖНОСТЯМИ И РИСКАМИ
3 Реакция китайского руководства на ухудшение отношений с США проявилась через адаптацию политических концепций и лозунгов. В январе 2018 г. на семинаре по изучению духа 19 съезда КПК для новых членов ЦК, кандидатов в члены ЦК и руководящих работников провинциального уровня Си Цзиньпин ввел в официальный лексикон понятие о "многообещающем периоде исторических шансов" [1].
4 Ему предшествовало сделанное в 2002 г. заявление 16 съезда КПК о том, что первые два десятилетия XXI в. представляют "период важных стратегических шансов", который нельзя упускать. Хронологические рамки были обусловлены задачей к началу 2020-х годов построить в Китае "общество малой зажиточности". Однако этот период уже близится к завершению. Чтобы не расширять провозглашенный Цзян Цзэминем "период стратегических шансов" еще на 30 лет, Си Цзиньпин заявил о "периоде исторических шансов", основным содержанием которого является осуществление "великого возрождения китайской нации" к столетнему юбилею КНР в середине столетия.
5 Одновременно китайский лидер призвал быть готовыми к неожиданностям, поскольку даже при благоприятной ситуации путь вперед не может быть гладким. "Чем больше мы добиваемся успехов, тем больше у нас должно быть осторожности как при движении по тонкому льду, озабоченности тем, чтобы думать об опасности в спокойные времена, абсолютно нельзя совершать стратегические и роковые ошибки. Перед лицом переменчивой, как волны и причудливой, как облака международной ситуации, сложной и деликатной периферийной среды, а также огромных и трудных задач реформ, развития и стабильности, мы должны инициативным образом предотвращать риски, ловко отвечать на вызовы рисков и находить решения. Надо вести хорошо подготовленную борьбу за предотвращение и сопротивление рискам, нужно следовать стратегии активной борьбы за превращение опасности в безопасность, трансформацию угрозы в шанс" [1].

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