Managing Chinese and Russian healthcare development using a predictive Gray model and an autoregressive relationship model

He, Pingping; Kostyrin, Evgeniy

doi:10.31857/S042473880023259-3

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Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody

No. 3

Managing Chinese and Russian healthcare development using a predictive Gray model and an autoregressive relationship model

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Managing Chinese and Russian healthcare development using a predictive Gray model and an autoregressive relationship model

PII

S042473880023258-2-1

DOI

10.31857/S042473880023259-3

Publication type

Article

Status

Published

Authors

Pingping He

Affiliation: Bauman Moscow State Technical University (National Research University)
Address: Russian Federation,

Evgeniy Kostyrin

Occupation: PhD in Economics, Professor of Finance
Affiliation: Bauman Moscow State Technical University (National Research University)
Address: Russian Federation

Journal name

Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody

Edition

Volume 59 No. 3

Pages

100-116

Abstract

This article examines the possible risks for health insurance funds due to an ageing population and the prevalence of infectious diseases in the world. By analyzing the structural differences between the existing health insurance funding systems in China and Russia, and using a Gray's model and an autoregressive model to forecast the existing flows of health insurance funds in Russia and China. The results of the forecasting model are then incorporated into a subsequent management model in order to propose optimisations for the future management of health insurance systems in both countries. The novelty of this paper lies not only in the analysis of the structure of the health insurance financing system, but also in the use of a predictive model to propose optimised management decisions for the future development of health insurance. The results provide theoretical support as well as guidance for national health insurance management. The results of the optimized management model for Russian health insurance show that the optimized solution not only improves the financing gap well, but also leaves a balance.

Keywords

Federal Compulsory Health Insurance Fund, compulsory health insurance, large-scale systems, Chinese health care, gray-model forecasting, medical savings accounts, financing system, cost-effectiveness, management.

Received

29.11.2022

Publication date

19.09.2023

Number of characters

56541

Cite

GOST	He P., Kostyrin E. Managing Chinese and Russian healthcare development using a predictive Gray model and an autoregressive relationship model // Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody – 2023. – V. 59. – No. 3 C. 100-116 [Electronic resource]. URL: https://emm.jes.su/S042473880023258-2-1 (circulation date: 04.05.2024). DOI: 10.31857/S042473880023259-3
MLA	He, Pingping, Kostyrin, Evgeniy "Managing Chinese and Russian healthcare development using a predictive Gray model and an autoregressive relationship model." Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody 59.3 (2023):100-116. DOI: 10.31857/S042473880023259-3
APA	He P., Kostyrin E. (2023). Managing Chinese and Russian healthcare development using a predictive Gray model and an autoregressive relationship model. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody 59(3), pp.100-116 DOI: 10.31857/S042473880023259-3

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