Opium poppy in Afghanistan: The determinants of cultivation

Occupation: Post-graduate student, Lecturer, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University)
Affiliation: Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO University)
Address: Moscow, Russia

Nina Mamedova

Occupation: Leading Research Fellow, Center of Near and Middle Eastern Studies; Head, Department of Iranian Studies, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Science; Associate Professor, Department of Global Economy, MGIMO, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of th
Affiliation:
Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO)
Address: Russian Federation, Moscow

Journal name

Asia and Africa Today

Edition

Issue 11

Pages

48-55

Abstract

In this article we examine increasing opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan since 2001. First, we discuss the historical background for the emergence and spread of opium production in Afghanistan in the 20^th century and its current spatial distribution. Then we proceed with our statistical analysis. Our results show that the intensity of violent conflict (which we proxy by the number of military casualties in a calendar year) and the farm gate price of opium are positively correlated with the increase in opium cultivation. We find that a 1% increase in conflict intensity leads to 0,2% increase in the land under opium poppy cultivation the following season. Given the magnitude of the increase in the intensity of conflict in Afghanistan in 2010s these effects seem to be very significant. Our findings are in line with existing research on the topic. Higher conflict intensity and the expansion of the conflict zone may create conditions, where opium cultivation is a low-risk activity and may be preferable to the production of other agricultural goods, with southern regions of Afghanistan being particularly affected both by higher conflict intensity and opium production. However, we note that our analysis is constrained by data quality and availability and should be viewed as capturing some of the interconnection between the variables of our choice, but not strictly causal.

Keywords

Afghanistan, economy of Afghanistan, opium poppy, drug production

Received

03.09.2020

Publication date

24.11.2020

Number of characters

23604

Cite

GOST	Elagin D., Mamedova N. Opium poppy in Afghanistan: The determinants of cultivation // Asia and Africa Today – 2020. – Issue 11 C. 48-55 [Electronic resource]. URL: https://asaf-today.ru/S032150750012197-8-1 (circulation date: 26.04.2024). DOI: 10.31857/S032150750012197-8
MLA	Elagin, Denis, Mamedova, Nina "Opium poppy in Afghanistan: The determinants of cultivation." Asia and Africa Today 11 (2020):48-55. DOI: 10.31857/S032150750012197-8
APA	Elagin D., Mamedova N. (2020). Opium poppy in Afghanistan: The determinants of cultivation. Asia and Africa Today (11), pp.48-55 DOI: 10.31857/S032150750012197-8

100 rub.

When subscribing to an article or issue, the user can download PDF, evaluate the publication or contact the author. Need to register.

Number of purchasers: 0, views: 1026

Readers community rating: votes 0

1. Todd C.S., Safi N., Strathdee S.A. Drug use and harm reduction in Afghanistan. Harm Reduction Journal. 2005, № 2.

2. Korgun V.G. 2004. History of Afghanistan. XXth Century. Moscow. (In Russ.)

3. UN Office on Drugs and Crime. World Drug Report 2019 Executive summary: conclusions and policy implications. UNODC Research, 2019. 53 p.

4. UN Office on Drugs and Crime. Afghanistan Opium Survey 2018: Challenges to sustainable development, peace and security. July 2019. 77 p. https://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/Afghanistan_opium_survey_2018_socioeconomic_report.pdf (accessed 28.06.2020)

5. Mitrofanenkova O.E. 2019. Drug Traffic from Afghanistan and Iran’s Fight Against Drug Trafficking. Eastern Analytics. № 1. (In Russ.)

6. Mitrofanenkova O.E. 2019. USA’s Drug Policy in Afghanistan (1990-2010 years). Eastern Analytics. № 3. (In Russ.)

7. Gajiev M.A. 2019. Illegal Drug Trafficking as a Threat to National and International Security. Political Science Issues. № 11. (In Russ.)

8. Plastun V.N. 2018. Drug Trafficking as one of the Threats on the New Silk Road. Novosibirsk State University Bulletin. Series: History and Philology. № 4. (In Russ.)

9. Andersson C.I.M. Counterproductive Counternarcotic Strategies? American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 2013. Vol. 95, № 4, pp. 917-931.

10. Bove V., Elia L. Drugs and Violence in Afghanistan: A Panel Var With Unobserved Common Factor Analysis. Defense and Peace Economics. 2013. Vol. 24, № 6, pp. 535-554.

11. Greenfield V.A., Bond C.A., Crane K. A Household model of opium-poppy cultivation in Afghanistan. Journal of Policy Modeling. 2017. Vol. 39, № 5, pp. 741-761.

12. Goodhand J. Frontiers and Wars: the Opium Economy in Afghanistan. Journal of Agrarian Change. 2005. Vol. 5, № 2, pp. 191-216.

13. Stepanova E.A. 2005. The Role of Narcobusiness in the Political Economy of Conflict and Terrorism. Moscow. (In Russ.)

14. Peters G. How opium profits the Taliban. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace, 2009, 39 p. https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/resources/taliban_opium_1.pdf (accessed 28.06.2020)

15. Rubin B.R. The Political Economy of War and Peace in Afghanistan. World Development. 2000. Vol. 28, № 10, pp. 1789-1803.

16. UN Office on Drugs and Crime. World Drug Report 2018: Analysis of drug markets: Opiates, cocaine, cannabis, synthetic drugs. UNODC Research, 2018, 72 p.

17. Goodhand J. Corrupting or Consolidating the Peace? The Drugs Economy and Post-conflict Peacebuilding in Afghanistan. International Peacekeeping. 2008. Vol. 15, № 3, pp. 405-423.

18. UN Office on Drugs and Crime. Afghanistan Opium Survey 2003. October 2003. 97 p. https://www.unodc.org/pdf/afg/afghanistan_opium_survey_2003.pdf (accessed 28.06.2020)

19. UN Office on Drugs and Crime. Afghanistan Opium Survey 2007. October 2007. 165 p. https://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan-Opium-Survey-2007.pdf (accessed 28.06.2020)

20. UN Office on Drugs and Crime. Afghanistan Opium Survey 2018: Cultivation and Production. November, 2018, 69 p. https://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/Afghanistan_opium_survey_2018.pdf (accessed 28.06.2020)

21. World Bank. World Bank Open Data. https://data.worldbank.org/ (accessed 28.06.2020)

22. UN Office on Drugs and Crime. Afghanistan Opium Survey 2012. May 2013. 111 p. https://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/Afghanistan_OS_2012_FINAL_web.pdf (accessed 28.06.2020)

23. UN Office on Drugs and Crime. Afghanistan Opium Survey 2013. December 2013. 117 p. https://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/Afghan_Opium_survey_2013_web_small.pdf (accessed 28.06.2020)

24. UN Office on Drugs and Crime. Afghanistan Opium Survey 2014: Cultivation and Production. November 2014. 67 p. https://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/Afghan-opium-survey-2014.pdf (accessed 28.06.2020)

25. UN Office on Drugs and Crime. Afghanistan Opium Survey 2015: Cultivation and Production. December 2015. 69 p. https://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/_Afghan_opium_survey_2015_web.pdf (accessed 28.06.2020)

26. UN Office on Drugs and Crime. Afghanistan Opium Survey 2016: Executive Summary. October 2016. 12 p. https://www.unodc.org/documents/press/releases/AfghanistanOpiumSurvey2016.pdf (accessed 28.06.2020)

27. UN Office on Drugs and Crime. Afghanistan Opium Survey 2017: Cultivation and Production. November 2017. 73 p. https://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/Afghan_opium_survey_2017_cult_prod_web.pdf (accessed 28.06.2020)

28. FDD’s Long War Journal. Mapping Taliban Control in Afghanistan. https://www.longwarjournal.org/mapping-taliban-control-in-afghanistan (accessed 28.06.2020)

29. UN Office on Drugs and Crime. Afghanistan Opium Survey 2015: Socio-economic analysis. March 2016. 65 p. https://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/Afghanistan_opium_survey_2015_socioeconomic.pdf (accessed 28.06.2020)

30. Greenfield V.A., Crane K., Bond C.A., Chandler N., Luoto J.E., Oliker O. Reducing the Cultivation of Opium Poppies in Southern Afghanistan. Santa Monica, California: RAND Corporation, 2015. 233 p.

31. Uppsala Universitet. Uppsala Conflict Data Program. https://ucdp.uu.se/conflict/333 (accessed 28.06.2020)

32. UN Office on Drugs and Crime. Afghanistan Opium Survey 2004. November 2004. 119 p. https://www.unodc.org/pdf/afg/afghanistan_opium_survey_2004.pdf (accessed 28.06.2020)

33. UN Office on Drugs and Crime. Afghanistan Opium Survey 2005. November 2005. 138 p. https://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/afg_survey_2005.pdf (accessed 28.06.2020)

34. UN Office on Drugs and Crime. Afghanistan Opium Survey 2006. October 2006, 148 p. https://www.unodc.org/pdf/research/AFG05%20_full_web_2006.pdf (accessed 28.06.2020)

35. UN Office on Drugs and Crime. Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008: Executive Summary. August 2008. 32 p. https://www.unodc.org/documents/publications/Afghanistan_Opium_Survey_2008.pdf (accessed 28.06.2020)

36. UN Office on Drugs and Crime. Afghanistan Opium Survey 2009: Summary Findings. September 2009. 32 p. https://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/Afghanistan_opium_survey_2009_summary.pdf (accessed 28.06.2020)

37. UN Office on Drugs and Crime. Afghanistan Opium Survey 2010. December 2010, 118 p. https://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/Afghanistan_Opium_Survey_2010_web.pdf (accessed 28.06.2020)

38. UN Office on Drugs and Crime. Afghanistan Opium Survey 2011. December 2011. 113 p. https://www.unodc.org/documents/crop-monitoring/Afghanistan/Afghanistan_opium_survey_2011_web.pdf (accessed 28.06.2020)

39. Lind J.T., Moene K.O., Willumsen F. Opium for the Masses? Conflict-Induced Narcotics Production in Afghanistan. The Review of Economics and Statistics. 2014. Vol. 96, № 5, pp. 949-966.