Аmerican Economic Crisis of 2020-2021: Cyclical and Non-Сyclical Factors

 
PIIS268667300015216-7-1
DOI10.31857/S268667300015216-7
Publication type Article
Status Published
Authors
Affiliation:
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Institute for the U.S. and Canadian Studies, RAS
Address: Russian Federation, Moscow
Journal nameUSA & Canada: ekonomika, politika, kultura
EditionIssue 6
Pages5-21
Abstract

Statistical observations of economic crises and business cycles in the United States have been conducted since 1854. Since then, the economic crisis of 2020-2021 has ended its business cycle. The current crisis has many features in common with other previous crises, but also differs from them in a number of specific features due to the modern development of the United States.

The liberal American economic model throughout its 245-year history has regularly, with a periodicity of 5-10 years, adjusted its development to new equipment, technologies and professions through economic crises, which were accompanied by an increase in unemployment and business failures, but then led to an economic recovery. Neither the development of economic theory, nor the heyday of the information age, nor the growth of the power of the state could “cancel” the crises and the cyclical nature of market progress. Cyclical factors do not lose their power in the XXI century.

However, the events of recent years have been overshadowed by the global COVID-19 pandemic, which in the United States has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives of Americans of all ages and backgrounds, exacerbated the economic downturn and contributed to huge unemployment. Virtually all sectors of the economy and society were affected by the pandemic. This is the main feature of the current economic crisis, in which non-cyclical factors play a significant role.

The article consistently examines these and other processes related to the American economic crisis of recent years. Attention is also drawn to the role of the global environment and the desire of the United States to maintain leadership in the global economy. The author points out the crucial role of the state in organizing and conducting an anti-covid-19 campaign.

KeywordsAmerican economy, economic crisis, business cycle, world economy, COVID-19 pandemic, the role of the state
Received27.04.2021
Publication date07.06.2021
Number of characters31055
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1

ВВЕДЕНИЕ

2 Двадцать первое столетие преподносит миру все новые сюрпризы, главным из которых пока стала эпидемия COVID-19 [1]; [18]. Однако даже это глобальное событие не смогло предотвратить цикличность развития американской экономики. Наоборот, пандемия усугубила кризисные явления в экономике и обществе, превратившись в решающий нециклический фактор американского экономического кризиса 2020-2021 гг. [20]; [Acemoglu D. 2021]. Как и прежде в 2007–2009 годах, американский кризис, теперь стартовавший в феврале 2020 г., потянул за собой большинство национальных экономик мира [22]. В результате это способствовало, с одной стороны, подрыву глобализации и устоявшихся глобальных цепочек стоимости, а с другой - росту национального эгоизма и протекционизма, стремлению развитых стран решать прежде всего свои собственные проблемы, игнорируя обязательства перед другими странами или их объединениями и мировым сообществом в целом [Antras Р. 2020].
3 В этих условиях во всех без исключения странах взоры граждан и бизнеса обратились к государству, единственной надежде всех на решение экономических и социальных проблем, обнажённых циклическим кризисом и эпидемией [Appelbaum B. 2020]; [Мау В.А. 2021]. В очередной раз прагматизм победил либерализм, который всегда настаивал, что рыночный механизм сам по себе «разрулит» любые экономические проблемы, включая выход из кризиса [Ball, et al. 2021]. Ни глобализации, ни цифровизации, ни мощи передовых стран или крупнейших многонациональных корпораций не удалось за всю историю рыночной цивилизации нивелировать цикличность развития, избежать периодических экономических кризисов, внутренне присущих воспроизводству капитала. Вновь на повестку дня академических кругов и политиков высшего уровня турбулентной динамикой цивилизации поставлен вопрос о формировании нового мирового порядка [Bowen R. et al. 2020].
4 Современный экономический кризис в США имеет много особенностей, среди которых выделяются такие факторы как:
  •  вызовы американскому лидерству в глобальной экономике;
  •  циклические факторы, вытекающие из природы экономического делового цикла;
  •  нециклические факторы, обусловленные общественными тенденциями последнего времени.
5 Остановимся на рассмотрении указанных особенностей. Вместе с тем нельзя не отметить, что деление факторов носит относительно условный характер, ибо многие явления тесно переплетены и взаимообусловлены, пронизывая экономику и общество.
6

НЕОПРЕДЕЛЁННОСТЬ И ВЫЗОВЫ ГЛОБАЛЬНОЙ СФЕРЫ

7 В течение ХХ века США привыкли к определённому комфорту в мировой экономике. Однако неравномерность развития стран и регионов, обостряющаяся конкуренция в мировом хозяйстве в третьем тысячелетии не прошли для них бесследно. Интернет и информационно-коммуникационные технологии, а также мощное наступление четвёртой промышленной революции не смогли удержать американского непререкаемого лидерства в мире. Как видно из таблицы, доля ВВП Китая в мировом валовом продукте в 2020 г. достигла 18,3%, а доля США опустилась до 15,9%. И в мировом экспорте товаров и услуг доля Китая превышает американскую почти на 3%. И хотя при подсчётах Международный валютный фонд применяет метод паритета покупательной способности национальных валют, а не их обменный курс, это не сильно меняет расстановку сил в мировой экономике. Не случайно поэтому многие специалисты и политики стали называть XXI век «китайским столетием», имея в виду, что ХХ век был «американским столетием». Все государства Группы семи также понизили свою роль в мировой экономике, что неизбежно сказалось и на их рейтингах мировой конкурентоспособности [10]; [16]; [17]. Изменение роли США подтолкнуло немало исследователей на анализ исторической судьбы других империй, чтобы Соединённым Штатам сегодня избежать их ошибок [Puri S. 2021].

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