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The main trends of ethnic transformation in the post-Soviet space
 
PIIS221979310013355-3-1
DOI10.37490/S221979310013355-3
Publication type Article
Status Published
Authors
Andrei Manakov 
Occupation: Professor
Affiliation: Pskov State University
Address: The Russian Federation, Pskov
Natalia Danilkina
Occupation: PhD student
Affiliation: Pskov State University
Address: Russian Federation, Pskov
Journal namePskov Journal of Regional Studies
EditionIssue 1 (45)
Pages21-36
Abstract

The radical ethnic transformation taking place in the post-Soviet space requires a deep and comprehensive scientific investigation. The aim of the study is to identify general trends in the ethnic transformation of the former Soviet republics, and now independent states, over the period since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The last All-Union Population Census of 1989 was taken as the starting point in the study. Since the task was to identify trends in each state for the longest possible period, the analysed interval varies in different post-Soviet countries, depending on the date closest to the end of the study for the census or assessment of the national composition of the population.

The methodology for identifying trends in the ethnic transformation of post-Soviet states includes a comparative analysis of the dynamics of the following characteristics: population size, ethnic mosaic index, ethnic structure of the population and ethnic concentration coefficient. As a result of the study, a few trends were identified: an increase in the share of titular peoples; increasing concentration (“pulling together”) of the titular peoples within corresponding states and national entities; reduction in the proportion of non-titular peoples, in particular, Russians, who in most cases are the second largest people. The trends are logically connected, but not identical in intensity. A backbone trend can be designated as a movement towards monoethnisation of the population of post-Soviet countries. The need to update the conceptual and theoretical-methodological apparatus for studying modern and post-modern processes of socio-political transformations, as well as dynamic aspects of social identity is emphasised.

Keywordsethnic composition of the population, share of Russians, titular peoples, ethnos-nation, monoethnisation, ethnic concentration, socio-political transformation
AcknowledgmentThe reported study was funded by RFBR, project number 20-05-00369 “Transformation of the Ethnocultural Space of Post-Soviet States: Factors, Trends, Prospects”.
Received19.05.2021
Publication date19.05.2021
Number of characters23892
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1 Введение. В настоящее время в пределах постсоветского пространства происходит радикальная этническая трансформация. Выявление и анализ общих трендов позволит проследить различия в темпах происходящих изменений на уровне государств и регионов. Нами уже предпринимались попытки выявления основных закономерностей трансформации этнического пространства постсоветских государств. В частности, были определены тренды в изменении этнической структуры населения за более чем вековой период на территории Центрально-Азиатского макрорегиона [33], а также за постсоветский период в европейских странах СНГ и Балтии [11]. Но пока не было проведено исследование основных трендов этнической трансформации в пределах всего постсоветского пространства, что и предпринято в данной работе.
2 Целью исследования является определение трендов этнической трансформации постсоветских стран в период между последней советской переписью населения 1989 г. и наиболее близкими к настоящему моменту переписями населения или оценкам национального состава.
3

В качестве информационной базы исследования выступает статистика по этнической структуре населения по итогам его переписей и учётов, начиная с последней Всесоюзной переписи населения 1989 г., результаты которой представлены на сайте demoscope.ru1, и заканчивая последними переписями и учётами населения в постсоветских государствах, результаты которых отражены на сайте PopulationstatisticsofEasternEurope & former USSR2.

 1. Всесоюзная перепись населения 1989 года. Национальный состав населения по республикам СССР. [Электронный ресурс]: URL: >>>> weekly/ssp/sng_nac_89.php (дата обращения: 24.07.2020).

2. Population statistics of Eastern Europe & former USSR. [Электронный ресурс]: URL: >>>> (дата обращения: 12.11.2020).
4

Наиболее близкая к данному моменту перепись населения состоялась в 2019 г. в Республике Беларусь. На начало того же года имеются данные по оценке этнической структуры населения в Эстонии, Латвии, Казахстане и Кыргызстане, на начало 2017 г. — в Узбекистане. В остальных случаях использовались результаты переписей населения: 2014 г. — в Молдове и Грузии, 2012 г. — в Туркменистане, 2011 г. — в Литве и Армении, 2010 г. — в Российской Федерации и Таджикистане, 2009 г. — в Азербайджане, 2001 г. — в Украине. При этом для расчёта динамики численности населения использовались данные по отдельным странам на середину 2020 г., полученные на сайте Countrymeters.info3.

 3. Countrymeters.info. [Электронный ресурс]: URL: >>>> (дата обращения: 25.07.2020).
5 Степень изученности проблемы. Проблематика, связанная с трансформацией этнической структуры населения стран постсоветского пространства, привлекает большое количество отечественных и зарубежных исследователей. Можно, к примеру, привести ряд работ, где рассматривается процесс постсоветской этнической трансформации в России [2; 3; 5; 7; 13; 15; 16; 18], странах Балтии [8; 12; 20], Республике Беларусь [9], Украине [4; 6; 14; 22; 24; 27], Молдове [10; 19], государствах Центральной Азии [1; 21; 26] и др. Однако такие исследования обычно проводятся на уровне отдельных стран, хотя бы по причине разных лет проведения переписей населения в независимых государствах в постсоветское время. Лишь единичные исследования охватывают крупные регионы постсоветского пространства [17; 29; 31] или же всё ближнее зарубежье [23].

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