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Dynamics of foreign trade of Saint-Petersburg and Leningrad region with the PRC in the context of "One belt - one road" megaproject
 
Код статьиS221979310011183-4-1
DOI10.37490/S221979310011183-4
Тип публикации Статья
Статус публикации Опубликовано
Авторы
Лачининский Станислав Сергеевич 
Должность: Associate Professor
Аффилиация: Saint Petersburg State University
Адрес: Russian Federation, Saint-Petersburg
Сорокин Иван Сергеевич
Должность: Researcher
Аффилиация: Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation
Адрес: Russian Federation, Moscow
Шендрик Александр Владимирович
Должность: Assistant Professor
Аффилиация: Saint Petersburg State University
Адрес: Russian Federation, Sankt-Petersburg
Название журналаПсковский регионологический журнал
ВыпускВыпуск 4 (44)
Страницы29-41
Аннотация

The paper focuses on the study of foreign trade dynamics of St. Petersburg and Leningrad region as important nodal coastal regions in the Russian Baltic and China as the initiator and main investor of the “One Belt — One Road” megaproject. The purpose of the study is to show the shifts in the dynamics of mutual trade between the PRC and St. Petersburg with the Leningrad region as the main coastal regions of Russia in the Baltic region in the context of a change in the geo-economic vector of Russia and the implementation of China pan-Eurasian megaproject. Foreign trade plays an important role in the economy of St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region, as well as for many other mainland regions of the country. Thanks to the developed transport and logistics infrastructure, in particular, ports, warehouses and railway. These regions are large trade and distribution hubs, providing not only their own needs, but also the needs of other regions of Russian Federation. The dynamics of foreign trade is analyzed in the sectoral context in the period from 2004 to 2019. The study is based on the operational data of the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation and takes into account the adopted industry structure. After analyzing the data, the authors come to the conclusion that at present time the trade of St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region with China remains very highly specialized. The most notable are exports of hydrocarbons through trunk pipelines and local ports, import of goods of a medium and high level of processing (cars, clothing, consumer goods, products of metallurgy and chemical industry) and their redistribution to other regions of Russia.

Ключевые словаpan-Eurasian megaproject, export, import, transport and logistics infrastructure, Russian Baltic
Источник финансированияThe paper was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (No. 19-18-00005 "Eurasian vectors of Russia's maritime economic activity: regional economic projections")
Получено19.05.2021
Дата публикации19.05.2021
Кол-во символов20756
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1 Introduction. As experts from Ernst & Young note, Russia's big turn to the East began in 2014, against the backdrop of mutual sanctions confrontation between Russia and the West, and now, in 2020, the growing role of China in the Russian economy is quite noticeable.
2 As the world's largest trading nation, China is responsible for about 10% of world trade1. Most of its goods are transported by sea, which means that China is the main destination and starting point for international shipping routes. 1. URL: //parstoday.com/ru/radio/programs-i99273 (date accessed: 20.08.2020).
3 Future prospects are associated with consolidation of economic space of Eurasia and strengthening of trade and economic ties between Europe and East Asia. Thus, according to the OECD2, by 2050, from 0.5 to 1 million out of 20 million containers will be transported along the railways between Europe and Asia, that is, only 2.5–5 % of the total volume of supplies. According to expert’s estimates, the total volume of container handling for export in the world exceeds 200 million TEU. At the same time, about 98 % of the volume of mutual supplies of the EU countries and China is served by sea transport, 1.5–2 % by air and 0.5–1 % by rail transport. In the structure of cargo transportation between the EU and China, 80 % of cargo is transported in containers3. Prospects for expanding mutual trade are associated with the fact that the average duration of delivery of the same goods from China to the EU via the EAEU railways does not exceed two weeks, while the delivery time for container cargo from China to the EU by sea reaches 60 days. 2. Transcontinental Infrastructure Needs to 2030/2050. France’s Gateway Ports and Inland Connections. Meeting with Meeddm Officials, Paris, 7 May 2010. Final Report. OECD. International Futures Programme. URL: https: Www.Oecd.OrgFuturesInfrastructureto203048368193.pdf.

3. URL: //www.eurasiancommission.org/ru/act/ (date of access: 20.08.2020).
4 In this context, given the growing expansion of the PRC in the Eurasian space, St. Petersburg and Leningrad Region can be determined as the most important port-industrial and transport-logistics outpost of Russia in the Baltic region.
5 Lanzhou as a transport and logistics hub in the East, the importance of which increased with the opening of the high-speed railway in 2014, should become a potential contractor of St. Petersburg from the Chinese side. This city should become an important transit point for the created transport corridors: the Western Europe — Western China highway (Lianyungang — St. Petersburg) and the New Eurasian Land Bridge (Lianyungang — Rotterdam) railway.
6 The geostrategic role of St. Petersburg for the OBOR has already been recognized at least by the fact that it is precisely the destination of the Western China — Western Europe highway, which is planned to be completed by 20234. If the highway is still under construction, then a whole system of ports on the Baltic Sea in St. Petersburg itself and in the neighboring Ust-Luga, Primorsk, Vyborg and Bronka is already operational and is a ready-made marine component of the northern transport hub. Thus, the construction of a new modern railway from St. Petersburg to the southeast of the European part of Russia, towards the Urals, Siberia and further to China would meet the national interests of Russia. Connected with the existing lines of the Asia-Europe Continental Bridge (Transsib) and the New Continental Bridge passing through Kazakhstan, such a road would also meet the national interests of China. Access to the Baltic Sea and the existing transport network of Northern Europe would expand the possibilities of direct trade with the countries of these regions. In the future, this modern freight highway, which can be called a north-western passage, could be extended to the North, to the countries of Scandinavia, and to the West, to the countries of Eastern and Western Europe. 4. URL: //www.infoshos.ru/ru/? Idn = 16627 (date accessed: 20.08.2020).
7 The PRC is already showing great interest in St. Petersburg. In particular, in 2018, out of 8.2 million tourists who visited the city on the Neva rier, 1.3 million tourists came from China5. The flow of tourists from China to St. Petersburg is increasing by 10–15 % per year. 5. URL: //regnum.ru/news/society/2714303.html (date accessed: 20.08.2020).
8 The volume of Chinese business is growing proportionally. Investors are interested in real estate and retail. Among the largest projects are: residential area “Baltic Pearl” in the south-west of the city6; the Russian-Chinese business park on Vasilievsky Island; the Russian-Chinese cultural center of the Hua Ren group of companies with the Nihao hotel at Tallinskaya street, worth over 1.17 billion rubles7; the Russian-Chinese Congress and Exhibition Center “Druzhba” worth 36 billion rubles. Several chains of Chinese restaurants operate in the city: Tan Zhen (9 restaurants), Mi Fan (1 restaurant), Nihao (2 restaurants), Ditai (1 restaurant), Ali (1 restaurant), Green Tea (1 restaurant), Zao Wang (3 restaurants) and others (5 restaurants). 6. Shanghai Industrial Investment Company acted as a land developer and full-cycle developer. On a plot of 205 hectares on the shore of the Gulf of Finland in the Krasnoselsky District, more than 2 million m2 of real estate is being built, including more than 1.5 m2 of housing. Together with the Chinese developer, the construction is being carried out by three Russian partners: KBC, Setl City and Legenda.

7. URL: //www.dp.ru/a/2019/08/04/Kitajskij_Vasilevskij (date accessed: 20.08.2020).
9 A strategic project in the Leningrad Region is the construction of the Baltic Chemical Complex — a gas chemical complex as part of an ethane-containing gas processing complex, which is being implemented by the Chinese National Chemical Engineering Co. (CNCEC) and the russian RusGazDobycha.
10 The ethane-containing gas processing complex is an integrated project for the processing of ethane-containing gas produced at the fields of Gazprom; it consists of a gas processing plant, a gas chemical complex and transport infrastructure facilities and is supposed to be located in the Ust-Luga settlement of the Kingisepp District of the Leningrad region. The commissioning of the first stage of the complex is scheduled for the second half of 2023, the second stage — by the end of 2024. The total investment in the construction is about 12 billion euros8. 8. URL: //asninfo.ru/news/88585-kitayskiy-podryadchik-postroit-krupnyy-gazokhimicheskiy-kompleks-v-rayone-ust-lugi (date accessed: 20.08.2020).

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Рис. 1. Доля оборота внешней торговли в ВРП (ВВП) (рисунок1.jpg, 33 Kb) [Скачать]

Рис. 2. Торговля С.-Петербурга и Ленинградской области с КНР (млрд долларов США) (рисунок2.jpg, 42 Kb) [Скачать]

Рис. 3. Доля оборота торговли с КНР в ВРП (ВВП) (рисунок3.jpg, 34 Kb) [Скачать]

Рис. 4. Экспорт С.-Петербурга в КНР (млрд долларов США) (рисунок4.jpg, 140 Kb) [Скачать]

Рис. 5. Экспорт Ленинградской области в КНР (млрд долларов США) (рисунок5.jpg, 146 Kb) [Скачать]

Рис. 6. Импорт С.-Петербурга из КНР (млрд долларов США (рисунок6.jpg, 108 Kb) [Скачать]

Рис. 7. Импорт Ленинградской области из КНР (млрд долларов США) (рисунок7.jpg, 131 Kb) [Скачать]

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