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New stage for Russian direct investment abroad: changes from 2018
 
PIIS086904990013608-0-1
DOI10.31857/S086904990013608-0
Publication type Article
Status Approved
Authors
Alexey Kuznetsov 
Affiliation:
Professor of MGIMO-University
Acting Director of the Institute of Scientific Information for Social Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences
Address: Moscow, 76, Vernadskogo avenue, 119454, Moscow, Russian Federation; Moscow, 15-2, Krzhizhanovskogo Str., 117218, Moscow, Russian Federation
Abstract

The article considers the specifics of Russian foreign direct investment outflows in 2018 – the first half of 2020. Three main reasons for the new stagnation of Russian foreign investment expansion are identified: 1) the strengthening of “sanctions war” with the West after the election of Vladimir Putin for the 4th presidential term; 2) the slowdown in the global economy in 2018-2019 against the background of relatively low prices for hydrocarbons and other raw materials exported from Russia; and 3) the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. These factors resulted in a reduction of both outward foreign direct investment stocks by Russian MNEs (partially due to revaluation of their assets after the collapse of the ruble rate), and a decrease in investments of wealthy Russians in foreign real estate as well as pseudo-foreign investment because of the regular attempts to conduct de-offshorization. Based on a study conducted at INION within the framework of the international program for studying MNEs from emerging markets, a list of leading Russian non-financial MNEs by the end of 2019 is presented. Further prospects of Russian direct investment are shown at the end of the article.

Keywordsforeign direct investment, FDI, Russian multinational enterprises, MNEs, FDI statistics, investments in foreign real estate, round-tripping FDI, “sanctions war” with the West, effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy
Received28.01.2021
Number of characters34375
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1 Новый этап для российских прямых инвестиций за рубежом: изменения с 2018 года А.В. КУЗНЕЦОВ* * Кузнецов Алексей Владимирович – член-корреспондент РАН, доктор экономических наук. Профессор МГИМО МИД России. Адрес: 119454, Москва, проспект Вернадского, 76. ВРИО директора, главный научный сотрудник ИНИОН РАН. Адрес: 117418, Москва, Нахимовский проспект, 51/21. E-mail: Kuznetsov_alexei@mail.ru
2 Аннотация: Рассматривается специфика экспорта прямых инвестиций из России в 2018 – первой половине 2020 гг. Выявлены три основные причины новой стагнации российской зарубежной инвестиционной экспансии – усиление «войны санкций» с Западом после избрания В.В. Путина на 4-й президентский срок, замедление в 2018-2019 гг. темпов роста мировой экономики на фоне сравнительно низких цен на углеводороды и другое экспортируемое из России сырье, вызванный пандемией коронавируса кризис в 2020 г. Эти факторы обусловили сокращение как объемов накопленных капиталовложений российских ТНК (в том числе из-за переоценки созданных ими активов вследствие обвала курса рубля), так и снижение инвестиций состоятельных россиян в зарубежную недвижимость, а также псевдо-иностранных инвестиций вследствие очередных попыток провести деофшоризацию. На основе проведенного в ИНИОН РАН исследования в рамках международной программы изучения ТНК с растущих рынков представлен перечень ведущих российских нефинансовых ТНК по итогам 2019 г. В конце статьи показаны дальнейшие перспективы российских прямых инвестиций. Ключевые слова: прямые иностранные инвестиции, ПИИ, российские транснациональные корпорации, ТНК, статистика ПИИ, капиталовложения в зарубежную недвижимость, путешествующие по кругу ПИИ, «война санкций» с Западом, последствия пандемии коронавируса для экономики
3 New stage for Russian direct investment abroad: changes from 2018 A.V. Kuznetsov* * Kuznetsov Alexey V. – corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Dr.Sc. (Econ.). Professor of MGIMO-University. Address: 119454, Moscow, Vernadskogo avenue, 76. Acting director and chief researcher at the Institute of Scientific Information for Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INION). Address: 117418, Moscow, Nakhimovskiy avenue, 51/21. E-mail: Kuznetsov_alexei@mail.ru
4 Abstract: The article considers the specifics of Russian foreign direct investment outflows in 2018 – the first half of 2020. Three main reasons for the new stagnation of Russian foreign investment expansion are identified: 1) the strengthening of “sanctions war” with the West after the election of Vladimir Putin for the 4th presidential term; 2) the slowdown in the global economy in 2018-2019 against the background of relatively low prices for hydrocarbons and other raw materials exported from Russia; and 3) the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. These factors resulted in a reduction of both outward foreign direct investment stocks by Russian MNEs (partially due to revaluation of their assets after the collapse of the ruble rate), and a decrease in investments of wealthy Russians in foreign real estate as well as pseudo-foreign investment because of the regular attempts to conduct de-offshorization. Based on a study conducted at INION within the framework of the international program for studying MNEs from emerging markets, a list of leading Russian non-financial MNEs by the end of 2019 is presented. Further prospects of Russian direct investment are shown at the end of the article. Key words: foreign direct investment, FDI, Russian multinational enterprises, MNEs, FDI statistics, investments in foreign real estate, round-tripping FDI, “sanctions war” with the West, effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy

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