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The Mechanisms of Cycles in Politics and Economics: the General Model
 
PIIS086904990011551-8-1
Publication type Article
Status Published
Authors
Nikolai S. Rozov 
Occupation: Leading Researcher, professor
Affiliation:
Institute for Philosophy and Law Siberian Branch of RAS
Novosibirsk State University
Address: 2, Pirogov St., Novosibirsk, 630090. Russian Federation
Journal nameObshchestvennye nauki i sovremennost
EditionIssue 2
Pages119-131
Abstract

Cyclical dynamics in history is treated as synchronized wavelike change of several variables. These variables are (quasi)quantitative aspects of qualities of some social entity: civilization, world-system, society, national politics, economy or culture. The functional model suggested by A. Stinchcombe is used as a basic scheme of dynamic relationship. The main part of historical cycles are considered and explained by means of this apparatus: crises of decline and destruction, achievement of the “bottom” and restoration after the fall, a rapid growth, stop by the “ceiling” and stabilization, forks in the cyclic dynamics. It is shown how this complexity is generated by various extensions and modifications of the basic model. Wellknown economic cycles are partial variations of a general cyclic dynamics model.

Keywordshistorical cycles, cyclical dynamics, economic cycles, political cycles, the relationship between variables, social stability, crisis, rise and fall
Received15.09.2020
Publication date10.04.2017
Number of characters824
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