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Prospects of Cooperation between China and Russia in Gas Supply Area
 
Код статьиS231243500026209-7-1
DOI10.18254/S231243500026189-5
Тип публикации Статья
Статус публикации Опубликовано
Авторы
Юй Гао  
Должность: PhD Graduate of the Saint Petersburg State University
Аффилиация: Saint Petersburg State University
Адрес: People’s Republic of China
Название журналаПравовой энергетический форум
ВыпускВыпуск № 2
Страницы31-35
Аннотация

Cooperation between China and Russia in energy area is an important cornerstone of cooperation between the two countries and a positive force for maintaining global energy security. The total volume of gas supply by 2030 will be at least 98 billion cubic meters plus 100 million tons of liquefied natural gas. The article refers to the market reforms of China’s natural gas market. A fair market competition mechanism has been implemented in natural gas exploration, production, and import. The article reviews the Chinese model of X+1+X marketization in the gas supply market. Conclusions are drawn on the positive trend of gas supply between the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China and on the necessity of joint legal research in order to develop the legal regulation of gas supply.

Ключевые словаinternational legal regulation of gas supply, supplies of Russian natural gas to China
Получено14.04.2023
Дата публикации27.06.2023
Кол-во символов8002
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1 On November 29, 2022, at the Russian-Chinese Energy Business Forum, Xi Jinping noted that China-Russia energy cooperation is an important cornerstone of cooperation between the two countries and a positive force for maintaining global energy security. China is willing to work with Russia to build a closer partnership in energy cooperation [1]. On March 21, 2023, Vladimir Putin held talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the Kremlin. Then Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the total volume of gas supplies by 2030 will be at least 98 billion cubic meters plus 100 million tons of liquefied natural gas. And they also discussed a good project - the new Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline through Mongolia. Almost all the provisions of this agreement have been approved. It means 50 billion cubic meters of reliable, stable gas supplies from Russia [2].
2 Since 2014, China’s state-owned oil and gas companies have actively and productively cooperated with Russian oil and gas companies in gas supply under Western sanctions, namely, in 2014, Gazprom PJSC (hereinafter referred to as Gazprom) signed a 30-year natural gas purchase agreement with China’s CNPC; in 2015, China’s SINOPEC acquired 10 % of SIBUR shares; in 2016, China’s Silk Road Fund (hereinafter referred to as the CSRF) acquired 10 % of SIBUR shares; in the same year, the CSRF acquired 9.9 % of Yamal LNG OJSC shares; in addition to a 20 % stake acquired by CNPC in 2013, Chinese companies acquired 29.9 % of the shares of Yamal LNG project; in 2017, Beijing Gas acquired 20 % of shares of Verkhnechonskneftegaz PJSC (a subsidiary of Rosneft Oil Company PJSC (hereinafter referred to as Rosneft); in 2018, Rosneft signed a joint venture agreement with Beijing Gas to develop a gas filling network in Russia; in 2019, CNPC and CNOOC acquired 10 % each of Novatek’s Arctic LNG 2; in 2020, SIBUR and SINOPEC signed an agreement on cooperation in the joint venture for the joint construction of the Amur Gas Chemical Industrial Park, in which SINOPEC holds 40 % of shares; most importantly, on February 4, 2022, Gazprom and CNPC signed an additional contract for the supply of 10 billion cubic meters of Russian pipeline gas. So far, the total volume of natural gas supplies through the Power of Siberia pipeline will reach 48 billion cubic meters (compared to 50.7 billion cubic meters supplied to Germany in 2021).
3 The following analysis of LNG export and import from different countries helps to better predict the potential and opportunities for further cooperation between China and Russia in the natural gas sector in the future.
4
image1

5 The image above is taken from bp Statistical Review of World Energy 2022 | 71st edition
6 The data shows that in 2015, China’s LNG imports were lower than Europe’s and even much lower than Japan’s. Since 2015, however, China’s LNG imports have grown rapidly. In 2021, China overtook Europe and Japan to become the world’s largest LNG importer. In the same year, China’s, Europe’s, and Japan’s LNG imports accounted for 21.2 %, 21 %, and 19.6 % of total global imports, respectively.
7
image2

8 The image above is taken from bp Statistical Review of World Energy 2022 | 71st edition
9 The figure above shows that Australia, the USA, and Russia started exporting large volumes of LNG in 2015, 2016, and 2017, respectively. Due to the success of the technological revolution in shale gas production in the USA, the average annual growth rate is 49.1 %. Australia, Russia, and Qatar have annual growth rates of 15.3 %, 10.7 %, and 0.6 %, respectively. In 2021, Australia, Qatar, the USA, and Russia accounted for 20.9 %, 20.7 %, 18.4 %, and 7.7 % of total global LNG exports, respectively.
10 In 2019, China’s pipeline gas trade accounted for only about 50 % of its LNG trade. In 2019, China’s dependence on foreign natural gas reached 42.6 % [3]. In 2021, China imported 168 billion cubic meters of natural gas. Of these, imports from Australia, Turkmenistan, Russia, the USA, Qatar, and Malaysia accounted for 129 bcm, or 77 %. PNG (pipeline) imports were 59.1 bcm. LNG imports were 108.9 billion cubic meters. Australia was the largest source of LNG imports to China with 43 bcm. The USA surpassed Qatar to become the second largest source of LNG imports to China with 12.4 bcm. [4].
11 In 2021, China’s natural gas consumption will reach 369 billion cubic meters, an increase of 41 billion cubic meters and a year-on-year increase of 12.5 % [5]. Natural gas consumption is estimated to reach 430–450 billion cubic meters in 2025 and 550–600 billion cubic meters in 2030. After that, natural gas consumption will grow steadily and gradually [6].
12 China’s domestic natural gas production will reach over 230 billion cubic meters in 2025 and will continue to grow steadily thereafter, and is expected to stabilize at over 300 billion cubic meters in 2040 and beyond [7]. That is, until 2040, natural gas imports, consumption and domestic production in China will continue to have a relatively high growth rate.

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