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Middle East Conflicts Today: Between Religion and Geopolitics
 
PIIS013122270013705-6-1
DOI10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-1-50-60
Publication type Article
Status Published
Authors
Alexander I. Shumilin 
Affiliation: Institute of Europe RAS
Address: Moscow, Russian Federation
Journal nameMirovaia ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia
EditionVolume 65 Issue 1
Pages50-60
Abstract

The article is an attempt to analyze the genesis of conflicts in the Middle East, the transformation of their nature over the past two decades. While in the first years after the World War II, the chain of the main conflict situations in the region was closed on the confrontation between the Arab countries and Israel, now something different is obvious: the regional centers of power (Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia) established by the end of the second decade of the 21st century confront each other in the context of geopolitical rivalry and contradictions associated with their common religion – Islam. This was caused by two titan shifts in the political landscape of the region: the Islamic Revolution in Iran (1979), which sharply exacerbated the confrontation along the Sunnism-Shiism line, and the end of the Cold War, the disappearance of the USSR (1991) as an ideologically motivated factor that influenced the situation in The Middle East and North Africa. The disagreements between the states of the region were significantly aggravated by the events of the Arab Spring. Today, the main conflicts there are developing in the dimension of intra-Islamic confrontation – both between Sunnis and Shiites, and within the Sunni segment of this religion, which is associated with the establishment of Turkey as a third center of power promoting the Islamist concept of the Muslim Brotherhood. The transformation of the Hagia Sophia Museum in Istanbul into a mosque is becoming a symbol of Turkey’s political identity as an important part of the Islamic world.

KeywordsMiddle East conflicts, Syria, Libya, Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI), Persian Empire, Ottomanism
Received04.02.2021
Publication date08.02.2021
Number of characters41234
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Table of contents

“НОВАЯ ХОЛОДНАЯ АРАБСКАЯ ВОЙНА”
КОНТУРЫ ПЕРСИДСКОЙ ИМПЕРИИ
“НЕООСМАНИЗМ”: ВЕРСИЯ ЭРДОГАНА
ВРЕМЯ AD HOC АЛЬЯНСОВ
1 За последние два десятилетия число конфликтов в регионе Ближнего Востока и Северной Африки возросло многократно. Эксперты Университета Гейдельберга в Германии приводят следующие данные за период с 2005 по 2019 г.: количество столкновений с применением силы в регионе увеличилось с 7 до 22 (с пиковым показателем 38 в 2012 г.), а число войн возросло с 1 до 8 [1]. Большая их часть укладывается в следующие основные категории: гражданская война (Ливия, Сирия, Йемен), борьба властей с террористическими группировками (Египет, Ирак), последствия суннитско-шиитского противоборства как внутри отдельных стран (в виде вспышек массовых беспорядков в Ираке и Ливане или гражданской войны в Йемене и Сирии), так и между арабо-суннитским блоком государств1 и Ираном. В ряде случаев наблюдается переплетение различных конфликтных линий, в частности гражданская война и суннитско-шиитское противостояние (Сирия, Йемен). 1. Наиболее активно взаимодействуют друг с другом Саудовская Аравия, ОАЭ, Бахрейн и Египет. Их можно считать ядром арабо-суннитского блока.
2 На этом фоне уже как архаика воспринимается словосочетание “арабо-израильский конфликт”. Между тем в период холодной войны именно противоборство между арабами и израильтянами было главной линией напряжения в регионе и, по сути, синонимом понятия “ближневосточный конфликт” в целом (в духе светской концепции “борьбы двух национализмов” или религиозного нарратива “мусульмане против иудеев”). Сегодня это противоборство сведено в основном к противостоянию между Израилем и Палестинской автономией в контексте поиска окончательной формулы палестинской государственности. К категории же “ближневосточного конфликта” в современном понимании справедливо относить ситуации выплеска внутриполитического противоборства в той или иной стране, повлекшего за собой столкновение интересов и существенную вовлеченность других региональных государств. В некоторых случаях вовлекаются государства и за пределами региона (как, например, Россия в Сирии).
3

“НОВАЯ ХОЛОДНАЯ АРАБСКАЯ ВОЙНА”
4 Сегодня мы наблюдаем существенное возрастание эффекта религиозной составляющей в стратегиях ведущих региональных игроков – Ирана, Турции и Саудовской Аравии. Население там в своем подавляющем большинстве исповедует ислам, но придерживается различных трактовок не самого Корана, священной для всех мусульман книги, а традиций, сформировавшихся уже после смерти Пророка Мухаммеда. К тому же в этих странах по-разному сложились отношения между властью (государством) и религией. В целом в регионе продолжает обостряться противостояние между суннитами и шиитами, а в последнее время и внутри суннитского пространства; сохраняется влияние негосударственных акторов, возрождающих вековые стереотипы внутриисламской розни в их радикальных формах (например, запрещенная в России террористическая группировка суннитов “Исламское государство” и шиитская “Хизбалла”).

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