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World Oil Market: the Pandemics Will Bring Global Peak Oil Demand Closer
 
PIIS013122270012024-7-1
DOI10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-9-26-36
Publication type Article
Status Published
Authors
Ivan A. Kopytin 
Affiliation: Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences
Address: 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow, 117997, Russian Federation
Journal nameMirovaia ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia
EditionVolume 64 Issue 9
Pages26-36
Abstract

The global economic crisis triggered in 2020 by the coronavirus pandemics necessitates more thorough analysis of the scholar concept of the global peak oil demand taking into account the newest data and facts. The present article articulates the thesis that under the influence of the process unleashed by the crisis and the pandemics the world economy will reach the peak demand for oil sooner than it was supposed earlier. The author highlights the two main contributing factors: first, changes in the behavior of mass consumers and producers; second, the acceleration of digitalization of business processes in corporate sector. Both factors lead to decrease in demand for transport mobility, еspecially in aviation and to a lesser extent in road transport. The unfolding restructuring of the established model of globalization, first of all trade wars and intensifying shifts in global value-added chains through reshoring and increasing emphasis on self-sufficiency and import substitution will also exercise downward pressure on oil demand globally. Basing on the analysis of shifts in energy and climate policies in the main world centers of production and consumption after the pandemics the conclusion is made that dynamic of future demand for oil crucially depends on the consistency of state policies supporting oil substitutes in transport sector and promotion of new energy sources. It is shown that European Union and China critically dependent on oil imports will continue to promote oil substitutes, primarily through encouraging road transport electrification. The USA richly endowed with hydrocarbons could temporarily slow down substitution of oil with alternative energy sources. The article concludes that the long-term tendency towards weakening of world economic growth upon oil consumption will accelerate.

Keywordsworld oil market, peak oil demand, world economic crisis, coronavirus pandemics, road transport, aviation, consumer behavior, digitalization, European Union, China, USA
Received29.09.2020
Publication date29.09.2020
Number of characters22271
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Table of contents

НАСКОЛЬКО БЫСТРО МОЖЕТ ВОССТАНОВИТЬСЯ СПРОС НА НЕФТЬ?
ПИК ГЛОБАЛЬНОГО СПРОСА НА НЕФТЬ: ПРОГНОЗЫ ДО ПАНДЕМИИ
ПИК ГЛОБАЛЬНОГО СПРОСА НА НЕФТЬ СТАЛ БЛИЖЕ?
СУБСТИТУТЫ НЕФТИ В ЛЕГКОВОМ ДОРОЖНОМ ТРАНСПОРТЕ: НОВЕЙШИЕ ТЕНДЕНЦИИ
ЗАВИСИМОСТЬ ДИНАМИКИ СПРОСА ОТ ЦЕНЫ НЕФТИ: ОПЫТ ЯПОНИИ И ЕВРОПЫ
* * *
1 На мировом рынке нефти наблюдается острая разбалансированность спроса и предложения. К началу мирового экономического кризиса 2020 г. дисбаланс фундаментальных рыночных факторов существовал латентно. За последние 10–15 лет высокие цены на нефть способствовали привлечению значительных инвестиций в новые нефтегазовые проекты, в экономический оборот были введены крупные запасы углеводородов. На этом фоне динамика мирового спроса на нефть, напротив, последовательно замедлялась, главным образом из-за завершения экстенсивного экономического роста в Китае и перехода в фазу интенсивного роста, имманентной характеристикой которой является снижение удельного потребления ресурсов, включая нефть.
2 Сложившийся структурный навес предложения сдерживался картельными соглашениями сначала ОПЕК, а затем ОПЕК+, участники которых добровольно ограничивали свою нефтедобычу. Как только картельные соглашения прекращали действовать, цена нефти немедленно снижалась, и картельные соглашения восстанавливались [1, 2]. Мировой экономический кризис и последствия пандемии, приведшие к деструкции спроса, предельно обнажили этот дисбаланс. В апреле 2020 г. глобальное потребление нефти снизилось до 70–75 млн барр./день, мировая экономика в вынужденно форсированном режиме фактически проходит стресс-тестирование по спросу на нефть. Анализ его результатов имеет принципиальное значение для понимания динамики будущего спроса на нефть.
3

НАСКОЛЬКО БЫСТРО МОЖЕТ ВОССТАНОВИТЬСЯ СПРОС НА НЕФТЬ?
4 Экономический кризис всегда представляет собой шоковое испытание для рынка нефти. В настоящее время обычный для кризиса шок дополнен и многократно усилен экзогенным шоком со стороны спроса на нефть, порожденным запретами на мобильность и наложенными на экономику ограничениями, введенными в связи с пандемией. По самым оптимистичным прогнозам, глобальный спрос на нефть в 2020 г. снизится относительно 2019 г. на 5–6%. Таких масштабов снижения спроса на нефть, как в апреле и мае 2020 г., не наблюдалось никогда за более чем сто пятидесятилетнюю историю мировой нефтяной промышленности (рис. 1).
5 Мировой спрос на нефть, если только возможные повторные волны пандемии коронавируса не приведут к новым ограничениям на мобильность и экономику, не вернется к предкризисному уровню ранее 2022 г. (рис. 2). Спрос на нее будет следовать за динамикой экономического роста. Страны Европы надолго останутся на траектории низких темпов роста, трендовый темп роста американской экономики не превысит 2% в год, а китайская экономика в силу структурных факторов продолжит замедляться. Китай не окажет прежней поддержки спросу, хотя первым среди крупнейших мировых экономик приступил к нормализации экономической активности. По прогнозам Исследовательского института экономики и развития компаний Sinopec и China National Petroleum Corp., спрос на нефть в китайской экономике в 2020 г. просядет на 5% [12, 13]. На состоявшейся в мае 2020 г. сессии Всекитайского собрания народных представителей, главного законодательного органа КНР, впервые за последние десятилетия не был объявлен целевой темп роста ВВП на текущий год, который задается для ориентирования экономических агентов [14].

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