U.S. Withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and Its Possible Consequences

 
PIIS013122270010231-5-1
DOI10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-4-106-118
Publication type Article
Status Published
Authors
Occupation: Senior Researcher
Affiliation: Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO)
Address: 23, Profsoyuznaya Str., Moscow 117997, Russian Federation
Journal nameMirovaia ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia
EditionVolume 64 Issue 4
Pages106-118
Abstract

The article analyzes the tendencies and perspectives of the global climate problem solution in light of the United States’ withdrawal from the 2015 Paris Agreement. The acuteness of the global warming problem is demonstrated by constantly increasing greenhouse emission rates, especially in world’s largest economies, which directly causes the climate change. The author traces the timeline of the global climate regime formation under the United Nations, with the Paris Agreement as its latest and the most progressive element. In this context, the more politically fringe looks the decision declared by the U.S. President Donald Trump in June 2017 to completely withdraw from the Agreement from purely economic considerations. The reasons and motives of the withdrawal are thoroughly investigated, conclusions are drawn regarding the effect this step would have on the United States’ own environmental perspective, its leadership position in world politics, and especially on the international environmental cooperation in the fight against global warming. As most politicians and experts agree, while Washington will undoubtedly benefit economically in the short term, this action will have severe long-term consequences. On the one hand, being one of the most serious polluters in the world scale, the U.S. will be thrown back in the matter of air protection, which would affect environmental situation not only on the American continent, but worldwide. On the other hand, Washington’s denial of its international financial obligations enshrined in the Paris Agreement and other UN documents will cause a drastic shortage in financing of the according international programs (especially in developing countries). The decision declared by D. Trump arouse big opposition both inside the country and abroad, drew strong criticism from world political leaders (including partner countries). Eventually, the United States run the risk of becoming an outsider in the international environmental cooperation (which will continue at any rate), and facing greater environmental challenges in foreseeable future.

KeywordsGlobal Issues, Global Warming, Climate Change, greenhouse gases, low-carbon economy, Sustainable Development, United Nations, The Paris Agreement, USA, Donald Trump
Received10.03.2020
Publication date11.03.2020
Number of characters50309
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1 Важной составляющей современной международной повестки дня являются так называемые глобальные проблемы современности, возникшие в результате противостояния между современной технократической цивилизацией и природой. На сегодняшний день они представляют реальную угрозу для будущего человечества, которое, таким образом, теперь зависит от эффективности их решения. В первую очередь это касается проблем, так или иначе связанных с состоянием окружающей среды: использования атомной энергии, изменения климата, проблемы мирового океана (и морского права). Круг глобальных проблем, требующих незамедлительного решения, определен Организацией Объединенных Наций, причем он неуклонно расширяется: “За семь десятилетий с момента создания ООН к ее первоначальным целям по обеспечению мира, защите прав человека, созданию основы для международного правосудия и содействия экономическому и социальному прогрессу, добавились новые проблемы, такие как изменение климата, международный терроризм и СПИД…” [1]. Эффективное решение каждой из них требует координации усилий всех субъектов международных отношений, но особая ответственность лежит на ключевых игроках – крупнейших странах мира: очевидно, что их вклад как в возникновение этих проблем, так и в их решение (в организационном и финансовом смысле) – наибольший. Можно сказать, что глобальные проблемы стали вызовом для системы международных отношений, своего рода лакмусовой бумагой, показывающей истинное место каждого из мировых политических акторов в этой системе. В последние годы таким “вызовом” служит, в частности, проблема изменения климата (точнее – проблема глобального потепления, влекущая необратимые климатические изменения).
2 Глобальное потепление принято связывать с массивными выбросами парниковых газов1 в результате экономической деятельности человека. На сегодняшний день эти эмиссии достигли исторического максимума [2]. Например, выбросы двуокиси углерода (CO2) с 1990 г. выросли почти на 50% [3]. Изменение климата, подстегиваемое экономическим ростом и увеличением численности населения, оказывает значительное воздействие на человека и на природные системы в масштабах всей планеты (в частности, с повышением температуры воздуха и океана уменьшается количество снега и льда, поднимается уровень моря, что в целом грозит серьезными последствиями для выживания многочисленных биологических видов, включая и самого человека). По прогнозам, в течение XXI в. температура поверхности Земли продолжит увеличиваться. Поскольку изменение климата оказывает существенное влияние как на состояние глобальной экосистемы, так и на экономическое развитие, преодоление этой проблемы стало неотъемлемой составляющей достижения “устойчивого развития”2. На практике это означает в первую очередь переход к низкоуглеродной экономике во имя сохранения устойчивости экосистемы планеты [4]. 1. Парниковые газы – газы с высокой прозрачностью в >>>> диапазоне и с высоким поглощением в дальнем >>>> диапазоне. Присутствие таких газов в атмосферах планет приводит к появлению >>>> . Основными парниковыми газами >>>> являются >>>> , >>>> , >>>> и >>>> (в порядке их оцениваемого воздействия на тепловой баланс) [6].

2. Устойчивое развитие (Sustainable Development) – это стратегия гармоничного, сбалансированного экономического развития, при котором удовлетворение потребностей человечества осуществляется при сохранении способности экосистем обеспечивать природные ресурсы для этих потребностей (то есть развитие без ущерба для целостности и стабильности природных систем). Стратегия была принята в 1992 г. в Рио-де-Жанейро на Всемирной конференции ООН по окружающей среде и развитию [7].

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