Modern Western Studies at the New Stage of the World Order Crisis

 
PIIS013122270010230-4-1
DOI10.20542/0131-2227-2020-64-4-96-105
Publication type Article
Status Published
Authors
Occupation: Professor, Chair of Geopolitics
Affiliation: Lomonosov Moscow State University
Address: GSP-1, Leninskie Gory, Moscow 119991, Russian Federation
Journal nameMirovaia ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia
EditionVolume 64 Issue 4
Pages96-105
Abstract

The problems faced by the world order, possible ways for their solution are disclosed in the latest Western political studies. The analysis of them has allowed to reveal changes in the researchers’ views on the liberal order, ways for its dissemination throughout the world, prospects for the transformations which have happened under the influence of the changed international situation. The experts are concerned with the erosion of the world order, insist that it retreats in the face of authoritarianism, populism and nationalism, and is under a threat. The understanding is growing up to consider the whole complex of external and internal factors affecting the order as this is the only way to respond to the facing challenges. Among the causes of the liberal order crisis the analysts mark out negative consequences of globalization: increase in the number of losers all over the world and in the Western countries, strengthening of nationalist sentiments in Asia and Europe, growth of disparities between developed and developing countries. Western authors have different assessments concerning the cause of the liberal order problems, measures for getting it out of crisis. Among the measures suggested there are the international institutions reformation (more countries should be engaged into their management structures), recognition of the national sovereignty value, establishing of conditions for cooperation between liberal democracies and authoritarian regimes. However, the reforms proposed have a half-way character and miscalculate their own political and economic consequences. The analysis of the viewpoints concerning the world order future, which exist within the Western expert societies, has allowed to select three possible scenarios for the crisis situation solution and determine the most probable one.

Keywordsworld order, liberal internationalism, realism, globalization, nationalism, world powers, USA
Received10.03.2020
Publication date11.03.2020
Number of characters32730
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1 Западные исследователи мирового порядка разделяют его недолгую историю на события, имевшие место до и после 2016 г. Выбор этой даты в качестве своеобразного водораздела они объясняют двумя важнейшими изменениями в мире. Речь идет, во-первых, об открытом противодействии правилам порядка со стороны России и Китая. Во-вторых, об ослаблении поддержки порядка западными державами из-за роста недовольства их населения внешней политикой своих элит, которое выразилось в шокирующих результатах голосования за выход Великобритании из Европейского союза и победе Д. Трампа на президентских выборах в США.
2 Журнал Foreign Affairs провел опрос нескольких десятков ведущих специалистов по международным отношениям, которым был задан один и тот же вопрос: в опасности ли либеральный порядок? Почти 80% респондентов ответили на него утвердительно [1].
3 Мировой порядок сталкивался с вызовами извне и ранее, но никогда опасность для него не исходила от его создателей. В этом состоит принципиальная новизна текущей международной ситуации. В этой связи важным является понимание вопроса о том, в какой мере изучение нынешнего состояния мирового порядка может опираться на труды прошлых лет?
4 По мнению Д. Колгана и Р. Кеохейна, до 2016 г. дебаты о глобальном порядке велись в основном по вопросам его структуры. Но в течение двух последних лет стало ясно, что в них отсутствовал ключевой момент: сегодняшние вызовы, которые в большей степени связаны с внутренними проблемами западных государств, чем отношениями между ними [2]. Это не означает, что до 2016 г. политические аналитики не высказывали беспокойства по поводу возникавших вызовов порядку, но их внимание концентрировалось на негативных последствиях экономической глобализации. Теперь фокус дискуссий сдвинулся резко в сторону обсуждения вопроса о возвращении соревнования основных держав [3].
5 Есть и иной аспект поднятой проблемы. С одной стороны, представители школы реализма предсказывали возвращение борьбы мировых держав, предрекали ослабление мощи США. С другой – ни они, ни, тем более, их оппоненты из либерального лагеря не предполагали, что экзистенциальные угрозы порядку будут исходить от самих стран Запада. Поэтому при всех достижениях западной теоретической мысли в исследовании феномена мирового порядка необходим критический подход к выводам о его перспективах, содержащимся в работах прошлых лет. Особенно это касается трудов представителей неолиберализма, в которых до недавнего времени утверждалось, что будущее порядка лучше, чем когда-либо [4], восхвалялись его достоинства без признания недостатков [5, p. 26]. Либеральный сценарий развития мира предусматривал появление все большего числа демократических стран, более тесную их кооперацию за счет роста экономической взаимозависимости [6].

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