Strategy of the Trump Administration on Asia-Pacific

 
PIIS013122270005594-4-1
DOI10.20542/0131-2227-2019-63-6-25-37
Publication type Article
Status Published
Authors
Occupation: Rector of MGIMO-University
Affiliation: MGIMO University
Address: 76, Prosp. Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119454, Russian Federation
Journal nameMirovaia ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia
EditionVolume 63 Issue 6
Pages25-37
Abstract

The article provides a comprehensive review of the U.S. policy in Asia during the Trump administration, which is conceptualized on the basis of the “Indo-Pacific” concept. The author notes that this concept originated from Japan and India, then was adopted by the Obama administration as the political framework for the U.S. pivot to Asia, and now has been reintroduced in Asia to serve Trump’s “America First” guideline. Under the Trump administration, Washington sharply intensified its efforts to design the “Indo-Pacific region”: the four countries (the US, India, Japan, and Australia) openly support and advocate this concept, and to make it practical they have established multilateral political consultation mechanisms and developed military venues of quadrilateral cooperation. By this stage, as the author argues, the “Indo-Pacific” policy of the U.S. and its Asian allies shifted to be a blunt effort of block-building rather than an endeavor of establishing an inclusive regional cooperation mechanism. Moreover, the article interprets this block approach as growingly anti-China-centric. The U.S. is attempting  to assemble a coalition to contain China in general, and particularly its implementation of its “One Belt, One Road” initiative. The author overviews the U.S. policy towards North Korea, economic cooperation in Asia, and relations with major Asian actors to build the ground for the main finding of the article: the “Indo-Pacific” block-building fundamentally contradicts the well-established Asian political tradition of a more inclusive and softer approach as is manifested in the core mechanisms of international relations in Asia, i.e. Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), East Asia Summit (EAS), and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). Hence, while many Asian states have concerns about the progressing Chinese might and ambitions, most of them – except the three countries (India, Japan, and Australia) – remain committed to these long-standing mechanisms, refraining from shifting to the “Indo-Pacific” block approach.

KeywordsIndo-Pacific region, US foreign policy, “Quartet” consultation mechanism, People’s Republic of China
Received21.06.2019
Publication date25.06.2019
Number of characters42308
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1 В рамках взятого администрацией Д. Трампа курса на переустройство мира в соответствии с американскими интересами (America First) одно из приоритетных мест занимает Азиатско-Тихоокеанский регион.
2 Еще в ходе предвыборной кампании и сразу же после прихода к власти Д. Трамп выступал с острой критикой сложившейся в регионе обстановки как "не отвечающей ключевым интересам США", обвинив предыдущие администрации в допущенных ими многочисленных промахах, приведших к резкому усилению Китая, и нанесении урона позициям США. Досталось и основным американским союзникам в АТР – Японии и Южной Корее – за их недостаточный вклад в обеспечение безопасности в Азии, "эгоистичную политику" в сфере экономических связей с Соединенными Штатами.
3 Выстраивая собственную политическую линию в АТР, новая администрация в качестве главных задач поставила удержание и закрепление неоспоримого лидерства Соединенных Штатов, "сдерживание" быстро растущего Китая, сумевшего в последние десятилетия существенно потеснить США, сплочение американских союзников, мобилизовав их на более активную поддержку политики Вашингтона. В качестве основополагающей доктрины для осуществления этого курса взята на вооружение концепция Индо-Тихоокеанского региона (ИТР) – с ареалом от западного побережья США до западного побережья Индии.
4 В настоящей статье делается попытка целостного анализа современной политики в АТР.
5

Концепция Индо-Тихоокеанского региона

6 Концепция ИТР "выросла" из нескольких идей, которые развивались в минувшем десятилетии. С одной стороны, в Индии усиливался интерес к сотрудничеству со странами АТР по экономическим и политическим причинам в рамках общего подхода "Смотреть на Восток, действовать на Востоке" (“Look East, Act Eastpolicy), а Япония продвигала тезисы об "Арке свободы и процветания" (Arc of Freedom and Prosperity) и "Свободного и открытого ИТР" (Free and Open Indo-Pacific, FOIP) [1; 2], которые обосновывали развитие японско-индийских отношений. С другой – формировалось представление о возрастающей роли Индийского океана как важнейшей транспортной артерии для торговли, особенно энергоресурсами (но также сельскохозяйственной продукцией и другими важнейшими товарами), между Ближним Востоком и Азией. Индийские эксперты вписывали это в общий контекст развития индийско-японских отношений [3]. В таком ключе размышляли и в других странах. В 2009 г. тезис о возрастании стратегического значения Индийского океана как важнейшей транспортной артерии включили в официальную австралийскую "Белую книгу по вопросам обороны". (В ней говорилось, что с течением времени Индийский океан приобретет такое же стратегическое значение для Австралии, как и Тихий.) [4]. В наиболее развернутом виде эти идеи выразил американский стратег Роберт Каплан (известный приверженностью реалистскому подходу и пишущий в геополитической традиции) в опубликованной в 2010 г. книге "Муссон: Индийский океан и будущее американской мощи" [5]. Эти мысли содержались и в опубликованном в том же году "Четырехлетнем прогнозе Минобороны США", в котором признавалась необходимость выработки интегрированного подхода к региону Индийского океана [6].

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