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Direct Investment from Russia Abroad: Changes since 2018
 
Название публикации (др.)Прямые инвестиции из России за рубеж: изменения с 2018 г.
Код статьиS207987840015225-6-1
DOI10.18254/S207987840015225-6
Тип публикации Статья
Статус публикации Опубликовано
Авторы
Кузнецов Алексей Владимирович 
Аффилиация: Institute of Scientific Information for Social Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences
Адрес: Russian Federation, Moscow
Название журналаИстория
Выпуск
Аннотация

The article considers the specifics of Russian foreign direct investment outflows in 2018 — the first half of 2020. Three main reasons for the new stagnation of Russian foreign investment expansion are identified: 1) the strengthening of “sanctions war” with the West after the election of Vladimir Putin for the 4th presidential term; 2) the slowdown in the global economy in 2018-2019 against the background of relatively low prices for hydrocarbons and other raw materials exported from Russia; and 3) the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. These factors resulted in a reduction of both outward foreign direct investment stocks by Russian MNEs (partially due to revaluation of their assets after the collapse of the ruble rate), and a decrease in investments of wealthy Russians in foreign real estate as well as pseudo-foreign investment because of the regular attempts to conduct de-offshorization. Based on a study conducted at INION within the framework of the international program for studying MNEs from emerging markets, a list of leading Russian non-financial MNEs by the end of 2019 is presented. Further prospects of Russian direct investment are shown at the end of the article.

Аннотация (др.)В статье рассмотрена специфика экспорта прямых инвестиций из России в 2018 — первой половине 2020 гг. Выявлены три основные причины новой стагнации российской зарубежной инвестиционной экспансии — усиление «войны санкций» с Западом после избрания В. Путина на 4-й президентский срок, замедление в 2018—2019 гг. темпов роста мировой экономики на фоне сравнительно низких цен на углеводороды и другое экспортируемое из России сырье, кризис в 2020 г., вызванный пандемией коронавируса. Причиной тому послужило сокращение объемов накопленных капиталовложений российских ТНК (в том числе из-за переоценки созданных ими активов вследствие обвала курса рубля). Кроме того, снизились как инвестиции состоятельных россиян в зарубежную недвижимость, так и псевдоиностранные инвестиции вследствие очередных попыток провести деофшоризацию. На основе проведенного в ИНИОН РАН исследования в рамках международной программы изучения ТНК с растущих рынков представлен перечень ведущих российских нефинансовых ТНК по итогам 2019 г. Показаны дальнейшие перспективы российских прямых инвестиций.
Ключевые словаforeign direct investment, FDI, Russian multinational enterprises, MNEs, FDI statistics, investments in foreign real estate, round-tripping FDI, “sanctions war” with the West, effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy
Ключевые слова (др.)прямые иностранные инвестиции, ПИИ, российские транснациональные корпорации, ТНК, статистика ПИИ, капиталовложения в зарубежную недвижимость, путешествующие по кругу ПИИ, «война санкций» с Западом, последствия пандемии коронавируса для экономики
Источник финансированияThis article is a translation of: Кузнецов А. В. Прямые инвестиции из России за рубеж: изменения с 2018 года // Общественные науки и современность 2021. № 1. C. 5—15. DOI: 10.31857/S086904990013992-3
Получено10.03.2021
Дата публикации31.03.2021
Кол-во символов27591
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Оглавление

The Dynamics of Russian FDI in 2018—2020
Leading Russian MNEs at the end of 2019
Prospects for Russian FDI in the 2020s
1

A few years before the global economic crisis of 2008—2009 interest in the export of foreign direct investment (FDI) from Russia increased significantly in the academic world. Apart from numerous papers that appeared in Russia itself almost fifty papers were published abroad [Liuhto, Majuri 2014]. This was not an accidental symptom — while at the end of 1995 and 2000 Russia, according to UNCTAD, ranked 35th and 30th in the world, respectively, in volume of outward FDI stock, by 2007 the country moved to the 13th place (with a share of 1.95 % and an absolute indicator equal to 363.5 billion dollars). Over the 12 years, the Russian outward FDI stock increased by almost 109 times, while over the next 12 years — until the end of 2019 — the indicator increased only by 1.1 times [World Investment Report 2020, annex table 04]. Certainly, in the first case, it was a matter of rapid growth from low base values, but in the 2010s there was a decrease in the activity of Russian MNEs abroad: investors from other countries, "newcomers" of foreign expansion, came to the fore. For example, in terms of the dynamics of FDI in 2002—2015 China, Ireland, South Korea, South Africa, Austria, Singapore and other countries were ahead of Russia [Kalotay 2020].
2 In the early 2010s the amount of Russian outward FDI stock fluctuated intensively due to the depreciation of the ruble and acute changes in the value of shares of companies in which Russian MNEs invested, but it never exceeded 400 billion dollars. This led to a gradual “slide” of the country to 20th place by the end of 2014 (it still remains there). At the same time, in terms of current FDI outflows, Russia sometimes even entered the top ten in the world (6th in 2013 and 7th in 2014 with a share exceeding 5 %) [World Investment Report 2020, annex table 02]. Since 2015 Russia has been losing its position among the leaders in terms of annual FDI outflows as well, as a result of which the interest of scholars has gradually shifted to FDI from China and other developing countries. At the same time, Russia's stable position among the top 20 countries in terms of FDI exports requires that scholars keep their attention, especially since, in our opinion, after 2018 we witness a new stage in the Russian foreign expansion, the features of which are especially evident since 2020. In the article this process is demonstrated, first with the use of statistics from the Bank of Russia (Central Bank of the Russian Federation), and then with corporate reporting collected during the analysis of the leading Russian MNEs and their subsequent survey in the summer of 2020.
3

The Dynamics of Russian FDI in 2018—2020

 

If we only analyze the official statistics of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, then we will hardly get an unambiguous picture. At the end of 2017, according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the Russian outward FDI stock amounted to 388.7 billion dollars if calculated on the basis of directionality (its application allows at least to partially exclude pseudo-foreign investment from the accounting). At the end of the year this proved to be the highest indicator for the entire period of observation — even the level of the end of 2013 was exceeded by 3.4 billion dollars. By April 1, 2018, the volume of Russian FDI stock still increased — to 398.4 billion dollars. Then decline began, followed by growth during 2019, again by a decline in the 1st quarter of 2020 and an increase in the 2nd quarter of 2020.
4 Thus, the growth of Russian FDI abroad slowed down, demonstrating volatility from quarter to quarter, especially due to single large transactions (both the purchase of new assets and the sale of foreign subsidiaries of Russian MNEs). However, as a whole, the foreign activity of Russians by no means stopped. Fluctuations in the stocks of FDI occurred against the background of persistently positive current net FDI outflows (even though in Q3 2018, Q3 2019 and Q1 2020 the indicators were much lower than usual). Their transformations are partly caused by the economic situation, which is confirmed by the recalculation of the indicator at the current dollar rates in rubles — its decline in ruble terms was observed only in Q4 2018 — QI 2019, and then in Q2 2020 (see Table 1). As a result, over the 2.5 years reviewed, the Russian outward FDI stock grew by 21 % in ruble terms, and fell by 1 % in dollar terms. At the same time, the total net FDI outflow from Russia reached 58.7 billion dollars which makes about 15 % of the Russian outward FDI stock registered over the entire period.
5

Тable 1. Dynamics of Russian FDI in 2018—2020

Indicator 2017 2018 2019 2020
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Dollar exchange rate in rubles, on the first day of the month after the end of the period 57.60 57.26 62.76 65.59 69.47 64.73 63.08 64.64 61.91 77.73 70.44
Outward FDI stock from Russia, RUB trillion, at the end of the period 22.4 22.8 23.9 24.2 24.1 23.6 24.2 24.7 25.2 28.0 27.1
Outward FDI stock from Russia, USD billion, at the end of the period 388.7 398.4 380.3 368.2 346.6 364.7 383.1 382.2 407.3 360.7 384.9
Cyprus 175.2 179.6 168.9 187.7 166.4 178.8 193.8 192.2 203.1 167.8 186.5
Netherlands 48.5 47.6 46.4 45.4 40.4 49.7 47.1 47.9 34.5 35.4 34.0
British Virgin Islands 41.7 43.2 38.4 11.2 11.3 10.9 12.4 12.8 5.6 4.9 1.8
Three main "transshipment" destinations in general 265.4 270.4 253.7 244.3 218.1 239.4 253.3 252.9 243.2 208.1 222.3
Their share, % 68 68 67 66 63 66 66 66 60 58 58
Current FDI outflow from Russia, USD billion 11.7 13.4 4.9 1.3 11.9 9.7 4.7 2.1 5.5 0.6 4.6

Sources: [Bank of Russia 2020a, Bank of Russia 2020b, Bank of Russia 2020c]

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