Changes in the ethnic structure of the population of Central Asia countries in the post-Soviet period

Central Asia is the only macro-region of the post-Soviet space where population growth has been observed over the past three decades, accompanied by a significant restructuring of the ethnic structure. The purpose of the study is to identify the most significant factors that influenced the change in the national composition of the population of the countries of Central Asia that occurred in the post-Soviet era, or more precisely, in the period between 1989 and 2021. The study is based on statistical, graphical and cartographic methods. The analysis showed that the most important factor influencing the change in the ethnic structure of the population of Central Asia in the post-Soviet period was the high natural increase in the titular peoples of the countries of the macroregion, which led to a more than doubling of their numbers in their republics. The second important factor in the ethnic restructuring of the Central Asian states was the reduction in the size of the non-titular population of the republics as a result of their migration outflow and natural decline. The opposite dynamics of the titular and non-titular populations of the Central Asian republics in the post-Soviet period led to a sharp increase in the share of titular peoples in their populations. Currently, in all countries of Central Asia, the share of titular peoples exceeds 70 %, and Tajikistan can already be considered a mononational state.

Keywords

titular peoples, non-titular population, mononational territories, ethnic mosaic, ethnocontact zones

Acknowledgment

The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation within project No. 23-17-00005 “Ethnic contact zones in the post-Soviet space: genesis, typology, conflict potential”.

Received

28.12.2023

Publication date

28.03.2024

Number of characters

14348

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MLA	Николаева, Евдокия "Changes in the ethnic structure of the population of Central Asia countries in the post-Soviet period." Pskov Journal of Regional Studies 1 (2024):77-90. DOI: 10.37490/S221979310029485-6
APA	Николаева Е. (2024). Changes in the ethnic structure of the population of Central Asia countries in the post-Soviet period. Pskov Journal of Regional Studies (1), pp.77-90 DOI: 10.37490/S221979310029485-6

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1	Введение. В прошедший после распада Советского Союза период произошло значительное перераспределение населения в пределах постсоветского пространства. Центральноазиатский макрорегион оказался единственным на постсоветском пространстве, где наблюдался рост численности населения благодаря высокому естественному приросту коренных народов. Вместе с тем, шёл миграционный отток из макрорегиона уроженцев других республик распавшегося СССР. Всё это привело к тому, что современная этническая структура населения республик Центральной Азии очень сильно отличается от той, какой она была в конце советского периода.
2	Целью исследования является выявление наиболее значимых факторов, повлиявших на изменение этнической структуры населения стран Центральной Азии, произошедшее в постсоветский период.
3	В качестве информационной базы исследования выступают итоги переписей и учётов населения с 1897 по 2021 гг. на уровне республик Центральной Азии и их регионов, представленные на сайте PopulationstatisticsofEasternEurope & formerUSSR¹.	1. Population statistics of Eastern Europe & former USSR. [Электронный ресурс]: URL: http://pop-stat.mashke.org/ (дата обращения: 18.12.2023).
4	Исходные предпосылки. В связи с тем, что в постсоветский период Центральноазиатский регион испытал значительный рост численности населения, в первую очередь, следует отметить работы, посвящённые современной демографической ситуации в странах Центральной Азии [12; 24]. При этом большое внимание уделяется миграционным процессам в этом макрорегионе постсоветского пространства [1; 7; 13].
5	Вместе с тем, целым рядом исследователей затрагиваются вопросы национальной идентичности населения стран региона в постсоветский период [4; 5; 14; 26]. Данное проблематика исследований напрямую связана с изучением этнотерриториальных споров и пограничных конфликтов в Центральной Азии [2; 3; 15]. В этом плане следует особо отметить работы, посвящённые разрешению этнополитических разногласий в Ферганской долине [16; 18; 19].
6	Значительный пласт составляют работы, где рассматриваются вопросы этнодемографии и этногеографии Центральной Азии в советский период. Например, это анализ динамики численности депортированных народов в Северном Казахстане [22], а также изучение этнической географии и этнической динамики в регионе исследования в советский период с позиции концепции этнокультурного пространства [9; 10; 27].
7	Особо следует отметить работы, посвящённые современной этнической географии отдельных стран Центральной Азии, в частности, Казахстана [6; 17] и Узбекистана [25]. Кроме того, изучена геодемографическая динамика русского населения региона в постсоветский период [21]. Определены основные тренды этнической трансформации стран региона в постсоветский период с позиции концепции геоэтнокультурных систем [29]. Имеется также исследование, где даётся оценка перспектив этнодемографической трансформации Центральной Азии в зависимости от реализации разных сценариев геополитического развития региона [11].

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