The market for technologies of artificial intelligence in Russia: social conditions of emergence. Article 1. The methodology of research and identifying the borders of the market

 
PIIS086904990009189-9-1
DOI10.31857/S086904990009189-9
Publication type Article
Status Published
Authors
Occupation: Senior researcher, Laboratory for studies in economic sociology, National research University "Higher school ekonomiki; adjunct Professor at the Centre for criminology and socio-legal studies, University of Toronto
Affiliation:
Laboratory of economic and sociological research of The national research University "Higher school of Economics"
Center for criminology and socio-legal research of the University of Toronto.
Address: Russian Federation, Moscow; Canada,Toronto
Occupation: Professor at the faculty of world economy and world politics Of the national research University Higher school of economicsˮ
Affiliation: The faculty of world economy and world politics, National research University "Higher school of Economics
Address: Russian Federation, Moscow
Journal nameObshchestvennye nauki i sovremennost
EditionIssue 2
Pages5-24
Abstract

The focus of the paper is on the study of the emergence of the market for artificial intelligence technologies in Russia based on both expert poll and survey of CEOs of the Russian industrial enterprises. It includes two parts. The first contains the methodology of the research, a description of the market agents and the features of the product. In the second part, the authors analyze the interactions of the agents and the role of the state in the regulation of the market. This emerging market combines the features of the markets for software products and consulting services, which offer solutions, i.e. unique personalized products tailored to the needs and conditions of specific companies. In spite of fast growth, the development of the market faced significant obstacles, which can slow it down in the future.

Keywords4th industrial revolution, artificial intelligence, social conditions for the development of technology, market for technologies, new markets
Received11.04.2020
Publication date27.04.2020
Number of characters35725
Cite  
100 rub.
When subscribing to an article or issue, the user can download PDF, evaluate the publication or contact the author. Need to register.
Размещенный ниже текст является ознакомительной версией и может не соответствовать печатной
1 В 2011 г. в работе немецких исследователей [Kagermann, Lukas, Wahlster 2011] была выдвинута идея о том, что мир находится в начале 4-й индустриальной революции, которая может радикально изменить облик как промышленности, так и всей экономики и общества в целом. С тех пор на эту тему появились сотни академических статей, в которых рассматривались разные стороны как происходящих в настоящее время изменений, так и прогнозы на будущее1. Исследователи ожидают радикальных изменений прежде всего в разных сферах производства, управления и бизнеса [De Silva, De Silva 2016; Moeuf, Pellerin, Lamouri, Giraldo, Barbaray 2018; El Hamdi, Abouabdellah, Oudani 2018; Ibarra, Ganzarain, Igartua 2018], для предприятий разного размера и отраслевой принадлежности [Sommer 2015; El Hamdi, Abouabdellah, Oudani 2018; Telukdarie, Buhulaiga, Bag, Gupta, Luo 2018]. 1. См. обзор и библиометрический анализ работ на тему 4-й индустриальной революции [Muhuri, Shukla, Abraham 2019; Oztemel. Gursev 2018].
2 Однако гораздо более широкие изменения, чем в технологиях, организации производства и ведении бизнеса, ожидаются на рынке труда и в системе рабочих мест [Johannessen 2019], в образовании [Gleason 2018; Doucet, Evers, Guerra, Lopez, Soskil, Timmers 2018; Ellahia, Khan, Shah 2019], здравоохранении [Thuemmler, Bai 2017] и многих других сферах. Иначе говоря, 4-я индустриальная революция имеет значимую социальную компоненту. Причем о ее социальных аспектах можно говорить в двух смыслах. Во-первых, она, будучи социальной инновацией [Morrar, Arman, Mousa 2017], потенциально несет в себе радикальные социальные перемены в уровне, качестве и стиле жизни людей – как позитивные (триллионы долларов прироста для мировой экономики и отдельных регионов [Arbulu, Lath, Mancini, Patel, Tonby 2018]; рост творческого характера труда и его безопасности [Taylor, Boxall, Chen, Xu, Liew, Adeniji 2018]), так и негативные (нарастание неопределенности в разных сферах социальной жизни [Magruk 2016]; потеря многими социальными группами привычных социальных ниш и источников дохода и возникновение больших групп прекариата [Johannessen 2019]; новые технологии “промывания мозговˮ и пропаганды [Chessen 2017]; новые смертоносные виды оружия [Springer 2018]). Изменения могут быть столь велики, что впору говорить о том, что 4-я индустриальная революция постепенно приведет к формированию соответствующего общества (Society 4.0) [Mazali 2018].
3 Во-вторых, 4-я индустриальная революция не реализуется автоматически, она зависит от множества социетальных факторов, включая уровень развития информационных технологий, сложившиеся типы корпоративной культуры, качество социально-экономической политики, развития соответствующих направлений науки, формы политического участия населения и др. Иначе говоря, она может происходить только по мере готовности промышленности, экономики и общества. В последние три-четыре года было выполнено довольно много исследований с оценками готовности промышленности к новой индустриальной революции по десяткам параметров с анализом того, в какой мере сформировались ее условия в тех или иных секторах экономики и странах – в Европейском союзе, Японии, Корее, России и др. [Schumacher, Nemeth, Sihn 2019; El Hamdi, Oudani, Abouabdellah 2020; Sung 2018; Hamada 2019; Castelo-Branco, Cruz-Jesus, Oliveira 2019; Bibby, Dehe 2018; Vasin, Gamidullaeva, Shkarupeta, Palatkin, Vasina 2018]. Из этих и ряда других работ очевидно, что ее успешное осуществление требует от государства и общества определенной индустриальной политики, учитывающей широкий круг факторов [Bianchi, Labory 2018]. Страны, сумеющие выработать эффективную политику и создать благоприятные условия для ее реализации, имеют шанс на успешное динамичное развитие в XXI в.

Number of purchasers: 0, views: 213

Readers community rating: votes 0

1. Abolafia M. (1996) Making Markets: Opportunism and Restraint on Wall Street. Cambridge: Harvard Univ. Press.

2. Abolafia M. (2003) Rynki kak kul'tury: etnograficheskiy podhod [Markets as cultures: an ethnographic approach]. Economic sociology, vol. 4, no. 2. pp. 63–72.

3. Aldrich H.E. (2005) Predprinimatel'skie strategii v novyh organizacionnyh populjacijah [Entrepreneurial strategies in new organizational populations]. Economic Sociology, vol. 6, no. 4, pp. 39–53.

4. Aldrich H.E., Fiol C.M. (1994) Fools Rush in? The Institutional Context of Industry Creation. The Academy of Management Review, vol. 109, no. 3. pp. 165–198.

5. Al'manah iskusstvennyj intellekt. Tekuschee sostoyanie v Rossii i v mire. Analiticheskij sbornik (2019) [Almanac of Artificial Intelligence. Current status in Russia and in the world. Analytical collection]. Moscow: National Technology Center on the basis of MIPT. AI section.

6. Arbulu I., Lath V., Mancini M., Patel A., Tonby O. (2018) Industry 4.0: Reinvigorating ASEAN Manufacturing for the Future. McKinsey & Company (https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/operations/our%20insights/industry%204%200%20reinvigorating%20asean%20manufacturing%20for%20the%20future/industry-4-0-reinvigorating-asean-manufacturing-for-the-future.ashx).

7. Avnimelech G., Teubal M. (2004) Strength of Market Forces and the Successful Emergence of Israel’s Venture Capital. Revue economique, vol. 55, no. 6, pp. 1265–1300.

8. Baranov I. (2018) Konstruirovanie doveriya na rossiyskom rynke kriptovaljut [Construction of trust in the Russian cryptocurrency market]. Economic sociology, vol. 19, no. 5, pp. 90–129.

9. Benotsmane R., Kovacs G., Dudas L. (2019) Economic, Social Impacts and Operation of Smart Factories in Industry 4.0 Focusing on Simulation and Artificial Intelligence of Collaborating Robots. Social Sciences, vol. 8, issue 5 (https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8050143).

10. Bianchi P., Labory S. (2018) Industrial Policy for the Manufacturing Revolution Perspectives on Digital Globalisation. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

11. Bibby L., Dehe B. (2018) Defining and assessing industry 4.0 maturity levels – case of the defence sector. Production Planning & Control. The Management of Operations. vol. 29, no. 12, pp. 1030–1043.

12. Block M. (2004) Roli gosudarstva v hozyajstve [The role of the state in the economy]. Economic Sociology, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 37–56.

13. Bogner A., Menz W. (2009) The Theory-Generating Expert Interview: Epistemological Interest, Forms of Knowledge, Interaction. Interviewing Experts. Research Methods Series: London: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 43–80 (https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230244276_3).

14. Castelo-Branco I., Cruz-Jesus F., Oliveira T. (2019) Assessing Industry 4.0 readiness in manufacturing: Evidence for the European Union. Computers in Industry, vol. 17, pp. 22–32.

15. Chessen M. (2017) The MADCOM future: how artificial intelligence will enhance computational propaganda, reprogram human culture, and threaten democracy... and what can be done about it. Washington, DC: Atlantic Council.

16. De Silva P.C.P., De Silva P.C.A. (2016) Ipanera: An Industry 4.0 Based Architecture for Distributed Soil-less Food Production Systems. Colombo, Sri Lanka: Proceedings of the 1st Manufacturing and Industrial Engineering Symposium (https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/ document/7780266).

17. Doucet A., Evers J., Guerra E., Dr. Lopez N., Soskil M., Timmers K. (2018) Teaching in the fourth industrial revolution: standing at the precipice. London, New York: Routledge.

18. Edquist C. (2005) Systems of Innovation. The Oxford Handbook of Innovation. New York: Oxford Univ. Press.

19. Edquist Ñ. (1997) Systems of Innovation: Technologies, Institutions and Organizations. London: Pinter.

20. El Hamdi S., Abouabdellah A. (2018) Literature review of implementation of an enterprise re–source planning: dimensional approach. 4th International Conference on Logistics Operations Management (https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/8378095).

21. El Hamdi S., Oudani M., Abouabdellah A. (2020) Morocco’s Readiness to Industry 4.0. Bouhlel M., Rovetta S. (eds) Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Sciences of Electronics, Technologies of Information and Telecommunications (SETIT’18), vol. 1. SETIT 2018. Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies, vol. 146. Cham: Springer, pp. 463–472.

22. Ellahia R.M., Khan M.U.A., Shah A. (2019) Redesigning Curriculum in line with Industry 4.0. Procedia Computer Science, vol. 151, pp. 699–708.

23. Fligstein N. (2013) Arhitektura rynkov [The Architecture of Markets]. Moscow: Higher School of Economics Publishing House.

24. Ganzarain J., Errasti N. (2016) Three Stage Maturity Model in SME’s towards Industry 4.0. Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management, vol. 9, no. 5, pp. 1119–1128.

25. Gleason N.W. (Ed.) (2018) Higher Education in the Era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Singapore: Palgrave Macmillan.

26. Granovetter M. (1985) Economic Action and Social Structure: The Problem of Embeddedness. American Journal of Sociology, vol. 19, no. 3, pp. 481–510.

27. Granovetter M., McGuire P. (1998) The Making of an Industry: Electricity in the United States. The Sociological Review, vol. 46, no. 1, pp. 147–173.

28. Guseva A. (2012) Karty v ruki. Zarozhdenie rynka bankovskih kart v postsovetskoy Rossii [Into the Red: The Birth of the Credit Card Market in Postcommunist Russia]. Moscow: Higher School of Economics Publishing House.

29. Hamada T. (2019) Determinants of Decision–Makers’ Attitudes toward Industry 4.0 Adaptation. Social Sciences, vol. 8, issue 5 (https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci8050140).

30. Hannan M., Freeman J. (2013) Populjacionnaya ekologiya organizaciy [The population ecology of organizations]. Economic Sociology, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 42–72.

31. Harari Yu. N (2018) Why Technology Favors Tyranny. The Atlantic, October (https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/10/yuval-noah-harari-technology-tyranny/568330/).

32. Ibarra D., Ganzarain J., Igartua J.I. (2018) Business model innovation through industry 4.0: a review. Procedia Manufacturing, vol. 22 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.promfg.2018.03.002).

33. Johannessen J-A. (2019) The Workplace of the Future. The Fourth Industrial Revolution, the Precariat and the Death of Hierarchies. London; New York: Routledge.

34. Kagermann H., Lukas W.D., Wahlster W. (2011) Industrie 4.0: Mit dem internet der dinge auf dem weg zur 4. industriellen revolution. VDI Nachr. 13. 11. (http://www.wolfgang–wahlster.de/wordpress/wp–content/uploads/Industrie_4_0_Mit_dem_Internet_der_Dinge_ auf_dem_Weg_zur_vierten_industriellen_Revolution_2.pdf).

35. Kamei K. (2012) Strategy for new industry creation in the nanotechnology field. Mitsubishi Research Institute. Tech Monitor (http://apctt.org/nanotech/sites/all/themes/nanotech/pdf/Strategy_for%20new% 20industry.pdf).

36. Kjellberg H., Helgesson C.-F. (2006) Multiple versions of markets: Multiplicity and performativity in market practice. Industrial Marketing Management, vol. 35, no. 7, pp. 839–855.

37. Kjellberg H., Helgesson C.-F. (2007) On the nature of markets and their practices. Marketing Theory, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 137–162.

38. Krylov D.A. (2009) Konstruirovanie rynka nanotehnologiy v Rossii: blagodarya i vopreki gosudarstvu [Constructing of the nanotechnology market in Russia: due to and contrary to the state]. Economic sociology, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 58–81.

39. Kurzweil R. (2005) The singularity is near: when humans transcend biology. New York: Viking Books.

40. Li Da Xu, Eric L. Xu, Ling Li (2018) Industry 4.0: state of the art and future trends. International Journal of Production Research, vol. 56, no. 8, pp. 2941–2962.

41. Lounsbury M., Rao H. (2004) Sources of durability and change in market classifications: a study of reconstitution of product categories in the American mutual fund industry, 1944–1985. Social Forces, vol. 82, no. 3, pp. 969–999.

42. Magruk A. (2016) Uncertainty in the Sphere of the Industry 4.0 – Potential Areas to Research. Business, Management and Education, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 275–291.

43. Mazali T. (2018) From industry 4.0 to society 4.0, there and back. AI & Society, vol. 33, pp. 405–411.

44. Meuser M., Nagel U. (2009) The Expert Interview and Changes in Knowledge Production. Interviewing Experts. Research Methods Series. London: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 17–42 (https://doi.org/10.1057/ 9780230244276_2).

45. Moeuf A., Pellerin R., Lamouri S., Giraldo S.T., Barbaray R. (2018) The industrial management of SMEs in the era of Industry 4.0. International Journal of Production Research, vol. 56, no. 3, pp. 1118–1136.

46. Morrar R., Arman H., Mousa S. (2017) The Fourth Industrial Revolution (Industry 4.0): A Social Innovation Perspective. Technology Innovation Management Review, vol. 7, issue 11, pp. 12–20.

47. Mousterman P., Zander J. (2016) Industry 4.0 as a Cyber-Physical System Study. Software and Systems Modeling, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 17–29.

48. Muhuri P.K., Shulka A.K., Abraham A. (2019) Industry 4.0: a bibliometric analysis and detailed overview. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, vol. 78, pp. 218–235 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engappai.2018.11.007).

49. Oztemel E., Gursev S. (2018) Literature review of Industry 4.0 and related technologies. Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10845–018–1433–8).

50. Polanyi K. (1993) Samoregulirujushhii?sya rynok i fiktivnye tovary: trud, zemlya i den'gi [Self-regulating market and fictitious commodities: labour, land and money]. THESIS, vol. 1, issue 2, pp. 10–17.

51. Pranab K. Muhuri, Amit K. Shukla, Ajith A. (2019) Industry 4.0: A bibliometric analysis and detailed overview. Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence, vol. 78, pp. 218–235.

52. Prokopovych B. (2015) The Emergence of New Markets for Environmental Services: The Role of U.S. Shellfish Industry Associations. Organization & Environment, vol. 28, no. 4 (https://doi.org/10.1177/1086026615609962).

53. Radaev V.V. (2008) Sovremennye ekonomiko–sociologicheskie koncepcii rynka [Current economic-sociological concepts of the market]. Economic Sociology, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 20–50.

54. Rao A.S., Verweij G. (2017) Sizing the prize. What’s the real value of AI for your business and how can you capitalise? PwC (https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/analytics/ assets/pwc-ai-analysis-sizing-the-prize-report.pdf).

55. Roberts N. (1989) The process of public policy innovation. In Research on the management of innovation: The Minnesota studies. Eds. A.H. Van de Ven, H.L. Angle, M. S. Poole. New York: Oxford Univ. Press.

56. Rogers E. M. (1983) Diffusion of innovations, New York: The Free Press.

57. Sarnat M. (1989) The Emergence of Israel’s Security Market. The Journal of Economic History, vol. 49, no. 3, pp. 693–698.

58. Schumacher A., Nemeth T., Sihn W. (2019) Roadmapping towards industrial digitalization based on an Industry 4.0 maturity model for manufacturing enterprises. Procedia CIRP, vol. 79, pp. 409–414.

59. Shrouf F., Ordieres J., Miragliotta G. (2014) Smart factories in industry 4.0: a review of the concept and of energy management approached in production based on the internet of things paradigm. 2014 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, IEEE (https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/7058728).

60. Skilton M., Hovsepian F. (2018) The 4th Industrial Revolution. Responding to the Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Business. Basingstoke: Palgrave MacMillan.

61. Smirnov E., Lukyanov S. (2019) Formirovanie i razvitie global'nogo rynka sistem iskusstvennogo intellekta [Formation and development of the global market for AI systems]. Regional Economy, vol. 15, issue 1, pp. 57–69.

62. Sommer L. (2015) Industrial revolution – industry 4.0: Are German manufacturing SMEs the first victims of this revolution? Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management, vol. 8, no. 5, pp. 1512–1532.

63. Springer P.J. (2018) Outsourcing war to machines: the military robotics revolution. Santa Barbara, California: Praeger, an imprint of ABC–CLIO, LCC.

64. Sung T.K. (2018) Industry 4.0: a Korea perspective. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, vol. 132, pp. 40–45.

65. Taylor M.P., Boxall P., Chen John J.J., Xun Xu, Liew A., Adeniji A. (2018) Operator 4.0 or Maker 1.0? Exploring the implications of Industrie 4.0 for innovation, safety and quality of work in small economies and enterprises // Computers & Industrial Engineering (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cie.2018.10.047).

66. Telukdarie A., Buhulaiga E., Bag S., Gupta Sh., Luo Z.(2018) Industry 4.0 implementation for multinationals. Process Safety and Environmental Protection, vol. 118, pp. 316–329.

67. Thuemmler Ch., Bai Ch. (2017) Health 4.0: How Virtualization and Big Data are Revolutionizing Healthcare. Cham: Springer.

68. Vasin S., Gamidullaeva L., Shkarupeta E., Palatkin I., Vasina T. (2018) Emerging Trends and Opportunities for Industry 4.0 Development in Russia. European Research Studies Journal, vol. XXI, issue 3, pp. 63–76.

69. Wang S., Wan J., Li D., Zhang Ch. (2016) Implementing smart factory of industry 4.0: an outlook. International Journal of Distributed Sensor Networks. vol. 12, issue 1 (http://dx.d0.1155/2016/3159805).

70. White H. (2010) Otkuda berutsya rynki? [Where do markets come from?]. Economic sociology, vol. 11, no. 5, pp. 54–83.

71. Zelizer V. (1978) Human Values and the Market: The Case of Life Insurance and Death in 19th Century America. American Journal of Sociology, vol. 84, no. 3, pp. 591–610.

Система Orphus

Loading...
Up