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The market for technologies of artificial intelligence in Russia: social conditions of emergence. Article 1. The methodology of research and identifying the borders of the market
 
PIIS086904990009189-9-1
DOI10.31857/S086904990009189-9
Publication type Article
Status Published
Authors
KOSALS Leonid 
Occupation: Senior researcher, Laboratory for studies in economic sociology, National research University "Higher school ekonomiki; adjunct Professor at the Centre for criminology and socio-legal studies, University of Toronto
Affiliation:
Laboratory of economic and sociological research of The national research University "Higher school of Economics"
Center for criminology and socio-legal research of the University of Toronto.
Address: Russian Federation, Moscow; Canada,Toronto
Maria Yachnik
Occupation: Professor at the faculty of world economy and world politics Of the national research University Higher school of economicsˮ
Affiliation: The faculty of world economy and world politics, National research University "Higher school of Economics
Address: Russian Federation, Moscow
Journal nameObshchestvennye nauki i sovremennost
EditionIssue 2
Pages5-24
Abstract

The focus of the paper is on the study of the emergence of the market for artificial intelligence technologies in Russia based on both expert poll and survey of CEOs of the Russian industrial enterprises. It includes two parts. The first contains the methodology of the research, a description of the market agents and the features of the product. In the second part, the authors analyze the interactions of the agents and the role of the state in the regulation of the market. This emerging market combines the features of the markets for software products and consulting services, which offer solutions, i.e. unique personalized products tailored to the needs and conditions of specific companies. In spite of fast growth, the development of the market faced significant obstacles, which can slow it down in the future.

Keywords4th industrial revolution, artificial intelligence, social conditions for the development of technology, market for technologies, new markets
Received11.04.2020
Publication date27.04.2020
Number of characters35725
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1 В 2011 г. в работе немецких исследователей [Kagermann, Lukas, Wahlster 2011] была выдвинута идея о том, что мир находится в начале 4-й индустриальной революции, которая может радикально изменить облик как промышленности, так и всей экономики и общества в целом. С тех пор на эту тему появились сотни академических статей, в которых рассматривались разные стороны как происходящих в настоящее время изменений, так и прогнозы на будущее1. Исследователи ожидают радикальных изменений прежде всего в разных сферах производства, управления и бизнеса [De Silva, De Silva 2016; Moeuf, Pellerin, Lamouri, Giraldo, Barbaray 2018; El Hamdi, Abouabdellah, Oudani 2018; Ibarra, Ganzarain, Igartua 2018], для предприятий разного размера и отраслевой принадлежности [Sommer 2015; El Hamdi, Abouabdellah, Oudani 2018; Telukdarie, Buhulaiga, Bag, Gupta, Luo 2018]. 1. См. обзор и библиометрический анализ работ на тему 4-й индустриальной революции [Muhuri, Shukla, Abraham 2019; Oztemel. Gursev 2018].
2 Однако гораздо более широкие изменения, чем в технологиях, организации производства и ведении бизнеса, ожидаются на рынке труда и в системе рабочих мест [Johannessen 2019], в образовании [Gleason 2018; Doucet, Evers, Guerra, Lopez, Soskil, Timmers 2018; Ellahia, Khan, Shah 2019], здравоохранении [Thuemmler, Bai 2017] и многих других сферах. Иначе говоря, 4-я индустриальная революция имеет значимую социальную компоненту. Причем о ее социальных аспектах можно говорить в двух смыслах. Во-первых, она, будучи социальной инновацией [Morrar, Arman, Mousa 2017], потенциально несет в себе радикальные социальные перемены в уровне, качестве и стиле жизни людей – как позитивные (триллионы долларов прироста для мировой экономики и отдельных регионов [Arbulu, Lath, Mancini, Patel, Tonby 2018]; рост творческого характера труда и его безопасности [Taylor, Boxall, Chen, Xu, Liew, Adeniji 2018]), так и негативные (нарастание неопределенности в разных сферах социальной жизни [Magruk 2016]; потеря многими социальными группами привычных социальных ниш и источников дохода и возникновение больших групп прекариата [Johannessen 2019]; новые технологии “промывания мозговˮ и пропаганды [Chessen 2017]; новые смертоносные виды оружия [Springer 2018]). Изменения могут быть столь велики, что впору говорить о том, что 4-я индустриальная революция постепенно приведет к формированию соответствующего общества (Society 4.0) [Mazali 2018].
3 Во-вторых, 4-я индустриальная революция не реализуется автоматически, она зависит от множества социетальных факторов, включая уровень развития информационных технологий, сложившиеся типы корпоративной культуры, качество социально-экономической политики, развития соответствующих направлений науки, формы политического участия населения и др. Иначе говоря, она может происходить только по мере готовности промышленности, экономики и общества. В последние три-четыре года было выполнено довольно много исследований с оценками готовности промышленности к новой индустриальной революции по десяткам параметров с анализом того, в какой мере сформировались ее условия в тех или иных секторах экономики и странах – в Европейском союзе, Японии, Корее, России и др. [Schumacher, Nemeth, Sihn 2019; El Hamdi, Oudani, Abouabdellah 2020; Sung 2018; Hamada 2019; Castelo-Branco, Cruz-Jesus, Oliveira 2019; Bibby, Dehe 2018; Vasin, Gamidullaeva, Shkarupeta, Palatkin, Vasina 2018]. Из этих и ряда других работ очевидно, что ее успешное осуществление требует от государства и общества определенной индустриальной политики, учитывающей широкий круг факторов [Bianchi, Labory 2018]. Страны, сумеющие выработать эффективную политику и создать благоприятные условия для ее реализации, имеют шанс на успешное динамичное развитие в XXI в.

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